How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect sites like Audiogon?

In 2014, the Ebola epidemic put the world on notice.

In 2015, Bill Gates predicted a pandemic. Video here.

In 2016, Obama set up the National Security Council Directorate For Global Health Security and Biodefense. Its primary mission was preparedness for pandemics.

In 2018, Trump disbanded it. Article here.

Dealing with the post-pandemic economy. Article here.

Some young people are calling this virus ’ a boomer remover’.

Mother Nature always wins.

Steakster +1.  I read from many sources, just not faux.   It seems to me we are being gaslighted on the corona virus.  I saw some early warnings on Veterans Today back in Dec.  Now back on topic.  It seems to me that posters are becoming more vicious and nasty on various forums and sites.  NuPrime was attacked for suggesting we take care of each other, and might find some discounts on audio gear.  He was called a profiteer, even tho he did not raise prices nor offer any specials.  Take care. 

I am not seeing fire sales on audio gear.  I rarely see good gear really priced to move, even when people claim to really need cash.

the concern that some small manufacturers and retailers in audio may not survive the recession, that just began, seems entirely realistic.  

I'm guessing the 1% who didn't get nailed by the market decline aren't looking to buy audio gear in a down market.  The ones who did get killed sure aren't.      

Agon is prime reading. Thanks to all commentators. Just here to learn.

Where I am, our country has just moved to level 4(no unnecessary contact, schools close in two days etc)and I have noticed sudden depreciation in Hi-Fi gear.

I personally will be buying nothing and saving my pennies for whatever comes next. My income will take a hit with this since I deal with restaurants. My turntable fund will be used to help pay the bills, luckily one positive effect of the virus is I've been living more cheaply.

How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect sites like Audiogon?

Web Site traffic will increase. 

1+ wturkey. In the end this virus will not affect the trajectory of this planet 1 mm and in a year will be nothing more than a foot note. Nobody wants to take the risk that somebody might get sick under their watch. So, we'll just shut everything down. This is what the lawyers have done to us. Shakespeare was right. 

I own a fitness facility and the business could be financially screwed, having to continue paying the lease with no revenue. I have recently spent money on my system and am so happy for it. It’s my only escape in what is going on right now. I’ve been listening more than ever. It’s a great Hobby to have at the moment. Especially since the ski season got cut short too.

Thanks Audiogon. I love reading and occasionally participating in the forum too. I think Audiogon will benefit.

Mijostyn,

If the odds were 95% that the shut down would not change things much and 5% chance that if you didn’t eg a huge amount of people would get very sick at same time and overload the health care system.  Are you willing to take that risk?  

I think, people are afraid. Fear can manifest itself in different ways, including aggression, both verbal and not. I also think people are confused and most are completely unprepared for possible big changes, hopefully temporary. 
40% unemployment may sound like exaggeration, but this is a new situation so who knows ? Surely can be 20%, I would guess.
Stratification of the society should increase too - good if I am wrong.
As for buying equipment, right now I am not in the mood and I upgraded last year. Sure, many will be saving up and buy nothing , degree of uncertainty is high.

Why you continue this subject? I thought this is audio forum not mental therapy. I am sure you will find a lot of help out there. Do we really have to participate in this?

sdrsdrsdr
I own a fitness facility and the business could be financially screwed, having to continue paying the lease with no revenue. I have recently spent money on my system and am so happy for it. It’s my only escape in what is going on right now. I’ve been listening more than ever. It’s a great Hobby to have at the moment. Especially since the ski season got cut short too.

>>>>How does that work, don’t fitness club members automatically pay the club each month during the lockdown?  Or do clubs stop charging credit cards during the lockdown?

We humans are an interesting species aren’t we? A couple of non-emotional observations with absolutely no intent to upset or offend anyone. Just hoping to inject some perspective.

1) Stock markets/S&P 500 are at levels not seen since 2016. Markets have another 15% to fall to retest 2016 lows (and they probably will test those lows this week)
2) The coronavirus pandemic is a serious event. The toll on the health of our fellow humans is immense and likely to get worse before it gets better...but it will get better folks in due course. We will rally together and regardless of political affiliation, medical science will prevail.
3) We have as a populace actually reacted in a very compassionate manner. Could it have been quicker, yes. More effective, yes. But I want us all to take a moment to realize what is happening. The world economy basically began a shutdown over the past 60 days. Figure about 40% of worldwide GDP would be a rough guesstimate. 4) To date, the unfortunate passing of 15,000 of our brethren is sobering and the number will grow and hopefully not exponentially.
5) Over that same 60 day time period however, almost 220,000 people have died worldwide in traffic accidents. Thats almost 3,700 per day, every day! Its likely possible with imposed shelter in place restrictions, that the net death rate (traffic deaths plus coronavirus deaths) will actually drop.
6) I am glad that humanity has chosen preservation of life over money and commerce BUT, and this is important, the funds expended/lost per life saved will be the most ever expended in any endeavor ever taken in human history. 
7) The carnage is very real but with an almost worldwide shutdown of discretionary travel the reduction of carbon emissions will provide invaluable scientific data to global warming modeling. The kind of data politicians would have never allowed.


Now, on to audio:

1) Since these economic effects are unprecedented and will be prolonged, prices will fall. Simple economics.
2) Undercapitalized firms will fail
3) Brick and mortar dealers will be hard hit although they may be installing more home theater systems to offset
4) Used prices will eventually be attractive but not yet, its still too soon
5) Capitulation takes time
6) Like in all things, those who must sell will and those who don’t won’t. For instance, if I have some extra gear (which I presently do) I will either list it for sale or put it in a closet and wait for things to stabilize or I will sell it for what its worth and reinvest those dollars into something Ii can use

Finally, I have read a number of posts in a number of different threads about people talking about selling their investments and going to cash or worse, money markets. I am not an investment advisor but have we not learned anything over the years about asset allocation? Were you fully invested before this? Were you 75 years old with 100% in equities? Did we learn nothing in 2008? 2001? 1987? If you are panicked into selling right now, it will likely be to your detriment. I will be putting money selectively to work next week because like it or not, massive infrastructure spending and economic stimulus spending is coming and new highs in the indexes will happen as a result.

Its going to be ok eventually, buy audio to enjoy, not as an investment or a store of wealth. If losing money on a piece of gear hurts, you may be spending too much.

The store I visit and purchase from is about 90 miles from my house and they are only doing appt only visits. I'm looking to upgrade my amp but I'm going to wait until this is over. It's not worth the risk right now. I've called them to check in and they're doing ok. In the meantime, I'm cleaning my music room and organizing. Not to mention saving money!! Stay safe y'all!!

There are a number of items I have my eye on and I could buy them but I am going to hold off for now just until we see how it all pans out economy wise.

I do have a few items on USAM that were listed before the world went down in flames and I do not seriously expect them to sell anytime soon.

I think with the extra downtime internet traffic to a lot of sites including Audiogon will increase dramatically.

But I do not think that will result in significantly increased sales, just more looky Lou's IMHO.

Oh and increased levels of testosterone and vitriol in the forums!
😎😎

I have been up all night worrying about this.

If it is 6 months , will still be be , a year or two , which is possible, it will not .
My scary is that it seems to come right back to some who where 'cured"

Oh my goodness, EBM5, I didn't mean this discussion to disturb anyone's sleep! :)  Thanks to all who stayed (mostly) on topic, and I hope that everyone enjoys listening to whatever gear they have or can afford.  Further reflections are welcome.  
There is surely enough pain to worry about; it's the pleasure of owning and listening to our systems (among other, more important pleasures such as solvency, good health, and loved ones)  that we can be thankful for.

Frankly, I am more interested in how it affects the people here I mean overall health and well being. 

With that being said Mapman I guess I will ask.

Have any of our members been unfortunate enough to have contracted the virus?( That they know of I may add)
Sincerely hope not but it’s spreading by the minute.

That of course but also the financial impacts are quite serious also at this point
.

@geoffkait Fitness facilities are suspending payments here in Canada. If they don’t,  members will cancel or put stop payments. Any business like mine is going to have trouble. Most businesses can just close and most expenses go away. Other than paying interest  on debt on a business, rent doesn’t go away and is payable. Same with property tax. Many business owners only wish their  only concern was loss of income. They not only have loss of income they are going in massive debt on top of that.

On a better note. Our hobby is awesome! Top quality music reproduction is so satisfying that I believe new younger audiophiles with full the space. It’s funny to say that I’ve always felt a younger audiophile, since the 80’s. Now I’m 54 and still am the younger. But I am see more and more all the time a many coming to the hobby. Just in a less costly way. More in the interest of 70’s and 80’s gear. Which is where I started. 

Suspect the site will be more than fine. People have a LOT of time to fill. Can't go looking for records as all the stores are close. One of the big retailers here in TO has shut and moved their sales online for the time being. Free shipping over $50. But, can't look at their used records, and it aint all going to go online! Brick and mortar retailers will close temporarily, so the only place to go shopping is online. Audiogon will be fine. I really do feel for all of us, its a terrible, terrible situation. Feel fortunate that I'm in Canada where it seems like the Gov turned on appropriate protocols early. (Just to be clear, non partisan, and not a fan of our current leaders) Our great neighbors to the south have unfortunately been fed a bill of goods from your "leader". Sad. Deny/lie/deflect. Didn't benefit anyone. And now, its gonna explode. Not going to take long until the US is dealing with a situation similar to Italy - only on a much bigger scale.
There is loads of blame to go around, but now is not the timer that, but rather to be responsible and be of as much service as possible to the greater good, whatever that means. Accountability will hopefully come to those around the world who did not act as should have been required, starting with China and spreading from there.

Canada should be prepared for the 'American virus' to come to them. No, you can't close the border. I know where to cross it in a broad daylight undetected, and so do many others. Americans will come for healthcare too if it becomes a madhouse here. And, finally, we can invade Canada and overrun it in two weeks or less if needed. Stay alert.

Canada will build a wall and the US will pay for it.

No wall needed.....we're paying for it now, in more ways than one. 👍

Quebec is now the most infected virus province in Canada....Difficult times for all....I go out one hour to walk swiftly point a to b and return...I think a lot, I read, and I am depressed by the sheer number of those who suffers in the world right now... And I am amazed, astounded, flabbergasted by the stupidity of many....Hydroxychloroquine has been studied for decade, and was given without prescription to million of travelers around the world without problem...

I study all the bad faith, and jealousy, enviousness, around the publication of Dr. Raoult, in France....The creator of the treatment of covid 19 with hydroxychloroquine....It was pure hypocrisy in the cercle of power in France… The Professor «In early 2019, on Google Scholar citations,has accumulated more than 135,397 citations and an h index of 166,115.

It is also included in the list of “Highly Cited Researchers” of Clarivate Analytics116, which lists the researchers who most influence research in their fields, and whose publications are among the 1% most consulted in academic journals. He appears there as one of the 99 world microbiologists and one of the 73 most highly cited French scientists117,118. (google translate of Wikipedia).

The professor inspired the Chinese doctors that has use the hydroxychloroquine with success and published a success story to alert the world for a needed cheap and efficient treatment....


The other story i study is the absolute mess of the Trump actions, yesterday he tweet that if the therapeutic appear worst than the disease, all will return to normal work in 15 days....This stupidity and ignorance about the disease is so great that it is impossible to exaggerate about it...

Some criticize my use of the word psychopath about Trump and corrected me with the word sociopath....Unbeknownst to them is the fact that sociopath has a conscience, even if they are very agressive and are never very amicable... this definition in the internet is very good : «Psychopaths tend to be more manipulative, can be seen by others as more charming, lead a semblance of a normal life, and minimize risk in criminal activities. Sociopaths tend to be more erratic, rage-prone, and unable to lead as much of a normal life.»
The category where to put it between the 2 is evident.... The number of times where is lack of heart toward others is manifest and too easy to look for to be counted...People die and he think about the cost in dollars that he gives to be president in a self pity rant....This is one example... There are plenty....

I am so sorry for us and for the world....Solidarity is the only glimpse of light , and the heroic bravery of health personal...

Audiogon gives to us the comfort of music and the passion about sound miracles in dark times, and we can speak our mind now here also, then thanks to the cleverness and general patience of the moderators in these times... I want to say that I accept all their decisions about my posts with total compliance and understanding even if they erase them when they deem it necessary... Thanks to them whatsoever....

People, companies and markets prefer certainty as a prerequisite to substantial buying and investment. 


We are are at least a few weeks and probably longer for enough certainty to give people some level of comfort. As a result, the purchase of big ticket items will be in a pause as they were in 2098/2009 after that debacle. 


The two two pieces of promising news are that massive effort is being applied to ventilators, treatment drugs and vaccines... and the Fed is committed to $Trillions if need be to keep the economy from crashing into a 2nd Great Depression. 


In the mean time, what we can offer each other is civility and support. 

feed the hungry

headaudio123

Your Canada post is as ignorant  as is  it gets .A true fool .

@inna 
Am I hearing you correctly?
 Is this a bad joke?

Or are you criticizing your country and warning us that your the enemy? The US has always been someone to trust for Canada pre Trump. Are you saying not anymore. I hope our great friendship continues as always.
@headaudio123

Let me just say..you got it right. I don't know about Canadians but if pushed hard enough Americans will come and take.

OP... good thoughts there.

forum activity should go up. 

sales may see some down turn briefly.

thev irus to worry most about is the spin C19 is accumulating, not the gvirus itself. simply look at the numbert  in the ratio of affected vs non affected. its ma iniscule shot at being infected, and if one's health is not already strained, the odds are very good for a complete recovery.

is C19 sopmething to  be concerned about? of course. its ot something to be frantically feared however.
it is a great reminder that we should be taking the same sensible heealthy precautions we should ALWAYS be taking. so to that extent this episode should alter the social health  norms in a gfod way. at least for a while.

Oh cmon people.
Now we are just being fricking STUPID here.
Give this crazy trash talk a rest unless you want this thread to vanish like others once the talk got loony!

Cant we all just get along...…..

Walls, masks and distance. Good times... Well, at least we can all get along here:) This is going to take a global effort, no doubt about that. I think that we as humans are hardwired to forget, or at least repress trauma. When this is over, the ones who will remember it and change their actions will be a small percentage of the population. Mainly those who have had a direct loss as a result of this. For the rest, it''l just remain a story "Remember when that Covid thing happened..." Perhaps this willful selective memory is a survival mechanism. It would be too difficult if one was to live with a truly active memory.

Does politics always have to creep into audio threads?

AT this time , yes .

Of course...
I heard they were thinking of renaming the site from Audio"Gon" to TrumpbeGon.
😉😉

Nobody in Audiogon are speaking about politics....We speak about music and sound usually....

Most people face anxiety, lack of truth, inactions, survival mode, total lack of direction and leadership at the country’s head....You can call that politics if you are  stupid or some politician I will not name... I call it despair...But at least we can speak to each other.... Thanks to the moderators...

Mahgister.
I would agree with you most times but of late due obviously to the concerns people have over the covid-19 there HAS been a lot of politics mentioned, discussed etc.
That cannot be ignored so it is happening whether we like it or not.