I am trying to influence the moderator, stay quiet and don't interfere, leave it to me.
Tariffs and sky high audio prices.
With the Chinese tariffs taking hold on 100% of the imports and maybe even on Mexico forthcoming, the audio industry is going to see another big jump in their sky high prices. Anyone making purchases ASAP to get lower prices from existing inventory before post tariff products enter the marketplace?
331 responses
That crafty art of the deal guy is going to make us the best tremendous deal. We will win the Tariff War bigly. So, judging from what little tax records he could not conceal, we find out that he lost more money than anyone in recent American history. He would have been crowned The Biggest Loser. And as far as Paul Krugman is concerned, most of those I have seen criticize him support supply-side economics. This is a strategy that is based on myths that have been proven wrong. Supply does not inherently increase demand, and giving huge tax breaks for the wealthy and billion dollar corporations results in a glut of cash taken offshore to avoid taxes. Simply put the middle class drives the economy because they spend the money. |
inna I am trying to influence the moderator, stay quiet and don’t interfere, leave it to me.Sorry, but when you drop an F-bomb into the group, that’s the kind of behavior that prompts my interference and report to the moderator. Most of this has nothing at all to do with the thread topic, and does not relate to audio in any way. |
The only upside to all of this is if they shut this thread down, we'll all have to listen to our stereos. Heaven forbid! But like all good topics too good to ignore, it will rise like a phoenix, metamorphosed in a different guise, and soldier on, revealing all the ready and willing actors waiting stage side. All the best, Nonoise |
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The US is numb to many bad things these days. Crime, shootings, corruption, you name it. As I recall, it all started with this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morton_Downey_Jr. |
Once upon a time, many years ago, back in 1961 a man of power and influence said,
"And so, my fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you;
ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world,
ask not what America will do for you, but what, together, we can do for
the freedom of man". It would seem that since then, individual selfishness has resulted in the will of the minority taking precedence over the will of the majority and has resulted in political parties caring more about the power of the party than the good of the people. Some would say that this is just history repeating itself...that this is the fall of the Roman empire all over again. It is hard not to fear that all may soon be lost (from the standpoint of America as a symbol of power being used for the good of all people) if we are unable to change our direction...both as individual people and as a country. |
It would seem that since then, individual selfishness has resulted in the will of the minority taking precedence over the will of the majority and has resulted in political parties caring more about the power of the party than the good of the peoplePerfectly stated. Our founding fathers called these types of parties, factions, and were to be avoided at all costs. It happens when the wealthy pollute the politics with their goals and desires at the expense of the less well off. I remember when Richard Dryefuss was on a talk show (Politically Correct?) long after being an actor and on hiatus teaching American Civics and the Constitution over in England, and he said that if we’re not careful, this 200+ year experiment in democracy will be nothing more than a memory if we don’t work to keep it. It will just be a shining blip in the dark history of mankind. All the best, Nonoise |
Frankly, the primary reason America exists is the basic premise that the majority must fight to protect the rights and freedoms of the minority. We haven’t always honored the spirit of this, but its an ideal worth chasing. Our privilege to lead others internationally is granted, its not to be purchased, taken or demanded. To have a friend, be a friend. To get a square deal, you must give a square deal. Back to third grade right? |
Back in the day, we kids in grammar school were given copybooks in which to practice our handwriting. (Yes, we learned to write in cursive back then). Each lesson in the copybook had a heading that had to be copied over and over until the handwriting was perfect. The headings were truisms, and the idea was to not only practice our handwriting but in addition, to burn the truisms into our subconscious minds in order to develop us into good citizens. Rudyard Kipling wrote a poem about copybook headings to illustrate just exactly how societies crumble and fall. I’d like to share it with you guys:
As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race, I Make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place. Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall, And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all. We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn: But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision, and Breadth of Mind, So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind. We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace, Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market-Place. But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome. With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch, They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch. They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings. So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things. When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace. They swore if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease. But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe, And the Gods of the Copybook Heading said: "Stick to the Devil you know." On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life (Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife) Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith, And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death." In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all, By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul; But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy, And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don’t work you die." Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew, And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four -- And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more. As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man -- There are only four things certain since Social Progress began -- That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire, And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire -- And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins, When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins, As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn, The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return! --- Rudyard Kipling - 1919 |
I want to come back to something ghasley said: The dollar is the world’s reserve currency because oil is traded in US dollars. Also, ask England what it’s like to be the world’s FORMER reserve currency. If we think it can’t happen, it’s likely already happening. Correct. Good point about England. And yes, it is indeed happening. Right before our eyes. Prior to WWII the world was on a gold standard. The meaning of that is even more distorted than globalist so for the sake of clarity let me explain exactly what that means. The gold standard I am talking about was a voluntary agreement between nations to settle their trade balances in gold. Most countries at the time used silver and gold coins within their borders. But even if they did not they would have to settle trade deficits or surpluses with other countries by physically shipping gold bullion. Naturally, any nation running a big trade surplus was taking in and accumulating more gold. As the gold available to buy imported goods becomes more plentiful then you could buy more imports, which to the extent that happens there goes your excess gold. Meanwhile, any nation running a trade deficit would be in danger of running out of gold. As the gold available to buy imported goods became more scarce the motivation to produce at home became greater, and more cost-effective. With no one able to create gold artificially the system is beautifully balanced, self-adjusting, and voluntary. The US accumulated some 24,000 tons of gold. Financially, militarily, and in pretty much every other way the US emerged after WWII the strongest country. The world began trading in dollars- except not really dollars, as after 1913 the currency went from gold and silver to Federal Reserve Notes. A crucial distinction. Because while the formerly used gold could only be produced by enormous effort finding, digging, refining, the new counterfeit FRN can be created at almost no cost on a printing press. Boggles my mind people don’t comprehend the significance. This marked the beginning of perpetual US deficit spending. By the 1970’s the world had been accumulating trade surpluses with the US and redeeming our paper FRN’s for gold bullion to the point where US gold had dwindled from 24,000 to only about 8,000 tons. Paper you can print but gold you have to dig. Faced with the all too present reality of the US running out of gold Nixon took the "temporary emergency" measure of suspending gold convertibility. Watch the YouTube video. Blames it on traders. Right. Politicians and bankers were to blame. Each in equal measure. Okay mostly the bankers. Whatever. Beginning of the end. Then go watch the Charles De Gaulle address. With that history now finally we get to ghasley’s remark. No longer backed by gold the US needed something or the world would abandon dollars. If that happens, who needs dollars, they all come back home. Inflation skyrockets. Economic disaster. The US imperative was to create global demand for dollars. The deal was the US would agree to protect Saudi Arabia with all our military might if the Saudi’s would require that oil be paid for with FRNs. This new global demand assured the US would be able to deficit spend for decades at a level that would otherwise have been massively hyperinflationary. This is where the term petro-dollar comes from. With every country depending on oil that can only be bought with dollars they all had no choice but to save them. The world reserve currency was born. Again, for those who missed my earlier post, the vital national interest Saddam Hussein threatened was to sell oil for Euro and not dollars. Iran, same deal. Now China. Not only that, but more countries are doing more trade directly, bypassing the dollar. Highly recommend people who want to follow and understand what is going on bypass the fake news and get in the habit of following news sites like zerohedge.com as you will see hardly a week goes by without some development in this area. The magnitude of these markets is such that even as fast as new developments occur we are still a long ways from the inevitable hyperinflationary collapse. But it is, as ghasley says, already happening. |
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^^^ Oh, oh ... I don't know what that means. As stated in an earlier post, that stuff doesn't compute with me. Can we keep this thread alive by concentrating on inflation, the money issue and how they relate to the audio hobby? Sheesh! I'm looking forward to the Long Beach show this coming weekend. Should be tons of new equipment there with outrageously inflated prices. Anyone else going? Frank |
I would agree that this has been an enjoyable discussion to follow. We have multiple knowledgable people weighing in on the topic and the level of discourse has been generally respectful and civil. Quite interesting how intelligent people can be given the same set of facts and interpret them so differently depending on their worldview and personalities. Regardless of how one views the points discussed so far, I wonder how or if the two personalities at the fore of the trade dispute will resolve the matter. Mr. Xinping has amassed more personal power than any leader since the communist party turned away from Mao style "cult of personality" leadership. If things go south under his watch, it will be much harder for him to spread the collective blame around. Two monumental egos with distinctly different agendas and time frames in which to act. |
especially if you are bashing the President of the United States. WOO HOO!!! Please take the topic back to audio or this thread will be closed. My pleasure! The thing about American made audio components, an awful lot of the best stuff in the world is made right here. Synergistic, VPI, McCormack, Graham, just a few that come to mind. Not that the rest of the world doesn't make some damn fine gear too. But the subject was tariffs. And I could be mistaken but it sure seems like if we are talking tariffs then we're talking pretty much China. And if we're talking China then we're no longer talking about anything having to do with expertise. All those American companies, they didn't just build it here. They designed it here. But then when it comes time to manufacture some- not all, some- find if what they need to have done is mindless enough then they can have it done more cheaply elsewhere. Most of those other places though, they aren't cheap because they are so much more productive. China is not like Germany. They don't have a workforce so uber educated and skilled they can not only design but also build a Porsche. No. What they have is cheap mostly unskilled to lower skilled labor. Cheap labor. Which is why tariffs are good. Good for the US. Good for China, too. Because, in the US, raising the price of imports makes it less advantageous to off-shore jobs, in other words incentivizes keeping those jobs right here where they benefit Americans. Americans who can then afford to buy more high end audio. But tariffs also benefit China. One effect of tariffs is to force a higher selling price here. The only way those products will justify the higher price is by being better. That means raising quality. That means being more productive. Either way it means incentivizing the Chinese to become even more skilled. Not sure if people know this, even though they do advertise it, but Synergistic Research builds all their products right here in the USA. Skilled American workers. Just in the last week I have totally by accident run across two people who worked there. These are real jobs. Jobs that pay enough to live on. Not live a life of subsistence crammed into bunk beds one floor up from the factory, which is how the workers who built my Melody integrated amp live. The guys I talked to, they don't work there now. They probably have much better jobs now. Just like the Chinese will some day. Thanks in part to our tariffs. |
^^^ Well, I have to hand it to the Jewish people. They certainly have made a monumental contribution to the music of all stripes. Classical, composition, conducting, playing ... and a huge contribution to my favorite music, jazz. If I were Jewish, I’d be mighty proud of that heritage. I know my many Jewish friends certainly are. Here’s a list of famous Jewish composers: *lol* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronological_list_of_Italian_classical_composers Z More Jewish composers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_composers More Jewish composers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_composers_of_African_descent Music comes from the human soul and is a gift from The Spirit. It knows of no ethnic boundaries. Frank |
@millercarbon I respectfully disagree with your tariff example. On paper, a tariff will force parity between a domestic product and an imported one. In theory, the perfect tariff will force the price of the imported product either at or above the price of the domestic product. In practice though, a tariff is rarely levied to attempt to reach parity. It is usually punitive in nature and, therefore, it has the effect of raising prices because in a one to one commodity play, the domestic producer gains pricing power and they usually take advantage of the opportunity, like in my steel example earlier in the thread. Now, since we are talking audio, there are so many players in the market here, there is zero chance it would influence overall prices. Make no mistake though, China won’t pay 1 wafer thin dime in tariffs, the American consumer will. Or not. As many have already figured out, I tend to swim against the current from time to time. When I lived in a certain southern state 20 years ago and the local deacons were trying to ban record stores from selling what they called gangster rap, I went into a record store/best buy type of store and bought about $500 worth of the stuff. Never took the plastic off of them but I despise over reach so I did it. I then dropped them off at the youth center....hope it didn’t ruin the kids! What concerns me most are companies like Primaluna. While I dont own any PL gear, those who do consider the quality and service to exceed alot of other offerings. What about American companies like Peachtree or Audioengine. Would a tariff be levied on an American company like Upscale Audio? What about a Dutch company like Primaluna who happens to manufacture in China? It would be a shame though because some entry level or gateway gear is built in China. I have an Auralic streamer which is pretty good and I’ve heard many enjoy their Chinese made dacs, speakers and amps. Whatever the case, I doubt there will be tariffs placed on audio gear unless someone is distracted by a shiny object tossed into the room. |
"China is not like Germany. They don’t have a workforce so uber educated and skilled they can not only design but also build a Porsche." What Germany does not have is uber-educated skilled workforce. At least not in needed numbers. What China does have is the most Porsches sold in the world. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/germany-passes-immigration-law-to-lure-non-eu-skilled-... https://newsroom.porsche.com/fallback/en/company/porsche-vehicle-deliveries-third-quarter-2018-clear... |
What China has is automakers like BMW, Volvo, Buick and other makes being made in China, for the Chinese market, with the eventuality that they will export to other parts of the globe. China may be around 5 years behind in chip manufacturing but they have 40% of the global phone market. Saying they live in bunk beds in slave labor is true for some parts of the country but how is it any different for some parts of this country? Ever been to some of the poorer parts of the Appalachians? How about coal country? We had sharecroppers until the ’60s living in deplorable conditions. People said American labor couldn’t build any of the Japanese or German models here because of the unskilled labor but we build them to the same standard as their home countries. Just wait and see how China fares in the near term as they ramp up their industries even more. How is it that they can send 12GW up to 3,293 kilometers and the best we can do is 1.5 GW for about 700 kilometers? They built the lines so their coal plants can send power across the country but instead, are going to solar and wind to send power back to the area of the coal plants. They employ UHVDC (high voltage direct current transmission) which is more stable and flexible bypassing unsynchronized AC systems. The biggest HVDC line we have was built in 1961, in California, and operates at 500KV, and hasn't been improved much since it's inception. To make it better would mean some others wouldn't fare that well anymore. Only Walmart is bigger than the company that runs their power grids, State Grid. India is using their tech and Oklahoma wind farms tried to use it to send power but Arkansas, back by this administration, killed the project to single out and support more coal plant operations using the less efficient system. It would have reduced emissions by up to 80% at no extra cost but someone is playing favorites. All the best, Nonoise |
Inna sez ... "Black people made an enormous contribution as well." Little known facts: Duke Ellington composed over 2000 pieces of music, including several symphonies. Freddie Green played rhythm guitar for the Count Basie orchestra for over 50 years and was the driving force behind the orchestra. Charlie Parker never played the same idea twice. Bud Powell was a genius. Dinah Washington sang "Blue Gardenia" better than anyone on the planet before or since. Billie Holliday was a tortured, but beautiful soul. Need I say more. Frank PS: Sorry about getting off topic, but this something I'm really passionate about. |
"...automakers like BMW, Volvo, Buick and other makes being made in China, for the Chinese market, with the eventuality that they will export to other parts of the globe." I avoided mentioning it but now when you touched it, Volvo XC 60 used to be produced in China and imported to the USA. It has changed recently. I believe that Volvo S90 is still made only in China. It is sold most everywhere. |
In order to build wind turbines and blades, it takes steel. Steel production needs coal. Same for electric cars ... made of steel, or aluminum. Make them out of plastic, you say? That takes oil. Solar panels use minerals. Minerals need to be mined from the earth. Mining machinery uses petroleum products and tears up the earth. Can any neo-environmentalist state how green energy can be produced by strictly using only green energy? Frank |
That's too easy. Use coal to make steel but not to heat water into steam in order to spin a turbine, like the wind does. The underlying logic that seems to defy some here is that steps have to be taken for progress to be made. Subsides have to be shifted in order to do so. Lots of R&D and time will bring costs down, like in any endeavor. No one likes to admit it and they always leave out the military costs of securing and protecting oil resources and reserves. That's one hell of a subsidy but when you honestly factor it in, renewables look like the cheaper way to proceed. Everything needs something else to be made. It doesn't come to us wrapped in a bow. It's a matter of policy and priorities and some sane minds to figure it all out, not some bottom line of a profit driven corporation, answering to it's shareholders, which, the last time I looked, aren't mentioned in the Constitution. All the best, Nonoise |
@millercarbon ”Perfect should not be the enemy of good, ghasley. So don’t let it be.” I promise, I’m not trying to be hard headed, I’m trying to be objective. I would take good right now knowing that perfect is beyond the reach of the team we have in place trying to get a deal done. Miller, these things aren’t binary. If a tariff is intended to level a particular playing field, that has a chance of smoothing the demand balance here and reasonable people may, just may find an agreeable outcome. But punitive tariffs accompanied by tweets intended to cajole and embarrass and repeated demeaning insults in the press will not succeed. Full stop. We can debate the past and whether the tulip bubble in Holland was a scam or a naturally occurring byproduct of human greed but make no mistake, this particular China won’t lay down and take this abuse. They will simply choose a market where we export to with a product where they have our number and then undercut us there. They will repeat it throughout the world. Its apparent you believe I’m wrong and that we somehow have a secret recipe...unfortunately we don’t. China learned a great deal by closely examining the mistakes made by the Japanese in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s and won’t repeat those. We will all learn soon enough that we are woefully unprepared for them calling our bluff. This has as much to do with saving face with the rest of the world than you might think. There is also a great many in the world that want to see the USA lose a bit of our arrogance, they are a little tired of the self righteous rhetoric. We educated their best and brightest at our top business schools and these guys are smart but most importantly, they have a plan and they are patient. I truly wish I was wrong but this won’t end the way you think. |
