@oregonpapa
Thanks for the link. I have seen that article/treatise many years ago and its important for you to know that the version you linked has been edited...and its one man’s opinion: Alan Greenspan’s, and it was from the perspective he had then almost 20 years ago.
This was prior to the dot.com bubble-burst and more importantly, prior to the great recession that his version of monetary policy contributed to to a large degree. If the answers were easy, then proper monetary policy would be easy and everyone would adopt the same policies worldwide...unless they were trying to solve different problems ie:tipping the scales their way.
I offer this opinion with the deepest respect I can extend to you that everyone’s opinion deserves the same objective examination. At its very root, once people have savings/resources, they want to protect them, especially if they are aging. I get that. Many want no taxes while expecting government programs to take care of their needs in their old age (health, safety, transportation, social security, etc). They don’t want to deploy resources to help others in need, be they domestic or foreign, and yet many fail to recognize that failing to help others comes with immense costs domestically (law enforcement, prisons, crime, insurance, healthcare, the lack of an educated populace) and its immeasurable if we fail in foreign generosity (war, famine, trade, health crises, religious extremism) not to even mention the morality of failing to do the right thing for your neighbors.
I hear many speak of Social Security as their right...the I paid in mentality. Maybe everyone should just get a check for the total amount they paid in compounded at the average rate of inflation over that period? Its then that people will sober up and realize they don’t pay anywhere near as much in as they get out in terms of real dollars. the same goes for other services: healthcare, education, etc, etc. Many on this site pay enormous amounts of income taxes, 6 or 7 figures per year. They are rarely griping about storing their wealth and "protecting their savings" from the "welfare statists" as the article mentions. The paranoid who read "investment" services like these need to understand clearly they are playing on fear because they only offer one service for sale: selling gold to extremely scared people. A balanced portfolio (not in a mattress) of equities, bonds and real estate will always outperform gold over time.
A proper society can’t tax cut its way out of its challenges any more than it can tax its way out. The circuitous route in this post is to say that there are many levers in an integrated economy, just like in audio. Change a cable, a component, etc and everything else is affected. Greenspan is brilliant but Bernacke saved the US economy from ruin. Neither are absolutely right and neither absolutely wrong. Now what? |
Monetary policy can be pretty complicated and frankly, who cares if the dollar is backed by gold or not. The whole premise of gold backed currencies is the promise that its backed by gold. You can always take all of your cash and buy gold(or British pounds, or the Euro, etc), still a free country. The US population has almost doubled since 1965 and if dollars were finite(as defined by being backed by a set amount of gold), you would have a crazy supply/demand imbalance. Lastly, I don't necessarily want to hold commodities where other humans are grossly exploited to mine it. Sometimes there's no alternative (some rare earth materials are inhumanely harvested, some not). The mining history on the African continent is bleak (and originated by non-Africans) and don't get me started on diamonds.
Its awesome that in 1965, housing was so affordable. The post war boom in Cal and elsewhere made alot of people who purchased real estate look pretty smart. At the end of the day though, the neighborhood where you purchased was probably red-lined to people of color. The good old days were not that great and the best of times lie ahead. |
@rodman99999
Regarding the gold standard: "Gold does not taste very good, even with seasoning. It generates no returns unless it is at someone else's expense" (ME)
@jafant
I buy gear made by Americans and sold by Americans, unless it happens to have been made elsewhere by people somewhere else. I believe in free trade and legal purchases.
@nonoise
I appreciate your words and agree with your post without reservation. |
@oregonpapa
Frank, you are an exceptional man and thank you for the contributions you make toward furthering the hobby. I wish the self employed were not slammed with both sides of the SS tax. I also regret hearing that your working days ended before you were ready. Me, I love my work and I hope that I get to continue until I'm ready to hang it up.
@rodman99999
Social Security is not a Ponzi scheme, it has been politicized, mischaracterized by many and mismanaged from its optimal outcome but it is not your money. It is a tax on today's workers paid out to yesterday's workers. That's the deal that was made for us all 80 years ago and that's the way it goes. It is not a savings account that you somehow have a right to direct. No offense intended, but your math may also be incorrect. The example you cite shows the money growing at 5% compounded. While that is a safe assumption for market returns over time, it is not a safe assumption for a risk free rate...you would need to drop in the average return for TBills over that time to achieve that. Additionally, you are assuming that returns grow tax deferred. In order to purchase an annuity, the funds would have been taxed at the time of the annuity purchase, significantly reducing the buying power and thus, the payout. It would have been far wiser to purchase the annuity with annual payments rather than a lump sum at end of career, which would have required after tax contributions. Still might have exceeded the returns one gets from SS BUT, you also offload the risk that you buy your annuity from the wrong company and they go out of business or become insolvent. There is a reason the best insurance companies pay far less on returns in annuities because they are conservative and prepare for material market fluctuations. I retired a pension plan at my last job and we paid over $1 million more to purchase annuities from John Hancock when compared to the next company (on a $7 million dollar purchase). Hancock was the highest bidder but they were the highest rated for financial strength. (Oh, and as the fiduciary, I would personally be on the hook in the event of a default by the annuity provider, LOL)
@inna
Everything happens in due course. Most populations will eventually strike a good balance between the workforce and the overall good of society. You cite China and some of their poor practices and yet, they have come so far so quickly. Do they have a long way to go, I certainly think so but they are an economic anomoly the likes of which the world has never seen over the past 25 years. That will be eclipsed over the next 25 years. It was ok while the west built factories and profited but when the Chinese do it themselves it not ok? Listen, I don't agree with much of their human rights but they are better today than when the west was building factories there. Are they better because of the influence of the west or in spite of the west?
@photon46
Thank you for the kind words. I love a good reasoned discussion on almost any topic. I learn so much, I really appreciate the opportunity. |
Canada's health system is actually quite admirable, and this is coming from a lifelong US citizen/resident. The health system there works quite well if you think of it as basically a huge HMO. Your description of "you have to get in line" is only applicable if you want the free version of the hip replacement. If you are willing and able to pay for it without expecting reimbursement, you can. Any Canadian who can afford it can get a new hip tomorrow in Canada, the USA, Switzerland...basically anywhere you want to go and pay for it out of your own pocket. It is a choice for most to wait for the free hip replacement.
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The Chinese people are not the bad guys, their system simply doesn't value intellectual property or the rights of an individual. Be thankful they don't in the case of gun powder or pasta, since the Chinese invented these things among many others and did not patent/copyright. Jokes aside, intellectual property is a western concept. Inna, every society makes its own rules...trade or don't trade but the subject of trade should be a no whining, no resentment zone. If you must trade, then get the best deal you can and everyone just move on down the road. If someone breaks their deal, stop trading. If you can't afford to stop trading with someone then you have a different problem to fix.
@oregonpapa
Social Security is a nice concept but it would be nice if everyone would refresh on their history from time to time. At its origin, Social Security is a tax, plain and simple. The tax was imposed on the workers at the time and paid out to those too old/infirm and of a certain age. I dont remember the exact life expectantcy when payments began but IIRC it was scheduled to begin paying a couple of years PAST the average lifespan. It was never intended to be an individuals retirement plan. As far as someone dying before the got to collect all they paid in? Thats the way it works. It is equally as fair as someone collecting MORE than they paid in because they lived too long. As I stated above, the only fair way to do it is to pay you back all of your contributions compunded and you are on your own! Oregonpapa, doing some quick math, you would have lost out on that deal many years ago!!!
Any way you slice it, if your present budgeting for old age/retirement includes social security as a requirement to make ends meet, stop buying audio gear immediately and save more money before you get there. Not because Social Security may or may not be there, it will be there. You should save more because it was never intended to underwrite your retirement, it was meant to supplement. I'm not going to begin taking distributions until they force me (presently age 70 I think) and even then, I will donate it to various good causes. I don't know if I will win or lose actuarily by waiting because I don't know at what I age will pass away. Once again, some people get a good deal, some don't, that's the why we look at averages. I have paid in the maximum allowable to Social Security every year since the 1980's. Most of those years I was maxed out easily within the 1st quarter. Now if I were like many I would grouse about whether or not I will get MY money back and whether it was a good deal for ME. But I choose to be a little more philosophical about it. My responsibility as an inheritor of my piece of this great country is to pay it forward...and backward! Backward in the sense that my contribution pay Oregonpapa because he paid for those before him. My responsibility forward is to be generous, enjoy my life, consume what I need (who defines need?), help those who are less fortunate and share a positive outlook with anyone who will listen.
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@inna
Why so angry?
@oregonpapa
Dear Frank, I think I just lost control of my ability to click! While I want badly to hear what you have to say and reference, my hand just won't click on a Breitbart link! LOL
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@oregonpapa
I don’t believe @nonoise intended any slight toward you, maybe the person in the video (which I have yet to see if it is referenced in the link to Breitbart) but not you.
I again pose a familiar question, why is everyone so angry? Is there considerable surprise that our fellow citizens of the world are capable of dishonesty? Surely not. Politicians? Surely not. TV repairmen? Lawn services? Surely not.
If we would all commit to vote our conscience, not our self interests but our conscience, then our elected officials may begin to resemble ladies and gentlemen of character. I won’t comment on a particular politician or party, things like that can be a slippery slope. I am concerned that future elections will be decided by those casting votes who get their news and information from a single source. People, please read alot and from a broad variety of opinions. Think about what you have read and use your own intelligence to make up your own mind. You shouldn’t want Steve Bannon or Steve Jobs charting your path any more than you should want Jeff Bezos or Jeff Beck.
Donald Trump almost won the popular vote and without diving into politics at all, just observations, I was kind of surprised that America elected a president who went broke in the casino business. Do you realize how hard it is to lose when the odds are stacked in your favor? Term limits would be nice. People with good intentions on both sides of the aisle get elected and immediately they are in grave danger of experiencing a gradual but steady erosion of their character.
The main point of this post though is, if you believe you are a good person, then go do some good. Help 1 person today, help feed the hungry, mentor a child or someone less fortunate, go volunteer at a soup kitchen. Maybe it will catch on. People of character having a great day helping others become impervious to the negative schlock and bitterness that pervades. The more we give, the more value will be placed on giving and maybe, just maybe, people will begin to care less about what they are getting or entitled to.
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@nonoise
My sides hurt from your post...
I've instructed my wife that if I ever suffer from a brain injury, a degenerative brain disease or if I'm ever comatose to immediately turn on Fox News, the Kardashians or TMZ. If I fail to regain my faculties within minutes in order to turn them off, she has been instructed to move us to a state where assisted suicide is permissible. If those don't pull you out of a coma, nothing will. |
@inna
Why are you angry? When were you last happy?
Tariffs are a direct result of not understanding economics and free trade. Its really not complex if a country is trying to be a good partner and reasonable.
A few truths:
1) Tariffs are paid by people who still buy stuff even after a tariff has been levied. Think about that for a moment. Don’t like tariffs, don’t buy the stuff. If you are ambivalent, keep buying or don’t keep buying.
2) There has never been a tariff levied among reasonable equals since the beginning of time that hasn’t escalated. Eventually, cooler heads prevail. Sometimes it takes triggering the 1929 stock market crash which, in turn, triggering the great depression to get the attention of the decision makers.
3) In a moral society, the tariffs collected would be paid out those most adversely affected by the necessity that triggered the tariff in the first place. They are hardly free market, free enterprise or intelligent.
4) What happened with the recent steel tariffs? USA steel companies raised their prices to parity...to match the price of Chinese steel plus the new tariffs. Outside of our borders, do you believe the USA steel companies are holding the line on those prices or do you believe they are competing internationally by pricing their product fairly? So, USA steel is sold into the international market for less than you can buy it here.
5) In point 4, the shortsighted pricing action taken actually renders the tariff completely ineffective. If both steel beams are priced similarly, then its about specs, quantity, price locks and deliverability. Had the USA steel providers left their prices alone, not one ounce of Chinese steel would be purchased.
Once again, we should all suck it up and pull together. @inna your posts just seethe anger, maybe I’m reading too much into it but anyway....
Read intelligent writings that DIFFER from what you presently believe. If you only read the blog of someone touting alt currencies from Panama or if you only read your Costa Rican off the grid live off the land guru you are missing some stuff. If you are far right, read some reasonable writings from the other side. Its not important if you agree but it is important that you understand. We shouldn’t be so self assured, we should be objective. For every Tienimen, there is Wounded Knee or Kent State or Homestead. They are all equally bad but sitting around wringing your hands and griping isn’t going to solve anything.
If someone voted for those in office, then the tariffs are their cross to bear. Learn from it and vote differently. In between, nobody gives a darn how angry and disenfranchised you may feel. Fix it, get happy and realize that you can choose to make a difference today or you can choose not to....but make no mistake, its a choice you are making!
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@inna
I apologize if anything I've written has come off as a lecture. That was not my intent. I've just noticed alot of your postings seem angry but many of those posts were deleted by the moderators, maybe at your request. Anyway, my apologies.
Now I will take issue with "dilettante" which is intended to convey that there is no knowledge to back up the statements. In the immortal words of Bob Newhart, "I would never mean to denigrate you, which by the way means to put down".
If you are angry and miserable, its highly likely it didn't happen over night and it may also be likely that you are exactly as you have intended. If that's the case, my apologies for trying to spread a little sunshine. Nothing worse than a happy SOB bouncing in and spoiling the fun.
@nonoise
I like it...to bring it back to audio, didn't Bob Marley record something about shooting the tariff? |
@millercarbon @nonoise
Many thanks to both of you for posting salient points. @inna , salient means “really bitchin”. The real problem, of course, is that there is no way to know absolutely for certain because there are so many forces at play. Some food for thought...
As we all know, the old saying goes “those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it” and “its different this time”. Those two statements have cost alot of smart people alot of money over the centuries. I would also submit that to assume that past tariff actions and outcomes are applicable today is dangerous. The good news/bad news at least is the current tariff decision maker doesn’t read history so we will have a few random decisions and data points to analyze in the centuries to come.
I would submit that tariff policies prior to 1929 should be evaluated individually and there was typically a strong player being punitive with another strong player. In modern history, there was alot of back and forth between the USA and Great Britain. There are certainly other examples but that is the relationship most often examined. They/we were the only world powers at the time with momentum.
Now fast forward...there are plenty of choices of trading partners today that simply were not factors prior to the early twentieth century. The largest democracy on earth today (India) was enslaved at the time by Great Britain. Same goes (for all practical purposes) for China. Between the UK and Japan, China has been exploited for much of modern history and every european country seemed to have “claimed/colonized” every square inch of South America, Central America and let’s not forget the African continent and the middle east. Again, colonies all.
Prior to the second world war, oil was controlled by the US and the UK and it was traded in British pounds. Tariffs end up being either protectionist or punitive. In today’s integrated, global economy where information, shipping, fund flows, data flows and communication is virtually instantaneous its naive to believe a punitive tariff will change the behavior of countries with a choice. Mexico doesn’t have a choice...that’s like beating up the gentle little kid next door. Sure, you can win but what do you win?
Now let’s look at China. They are 20 years from not giving a darn what Washington does because they have wisely invested and diversified. They have almost reached economic parity with the USA in a little more than 1 generation. The present tariff policy in Washington amounts to kicking a lion cub....try that when they finish growing. And China is growing and is unstoppable. The EU, South America and Africa will buy their steel. Australia has become an economic colony of China. I don’t lament any of this as its the natural progression of things. Countries rise and fall throughout history. The silk road predated the USA and China isn’t just a flash in the pan, its real and has critical economic mass without the constraints of those pesky issues like an opposition to pay to play (read:bribery) cultures, etc.
So, since no one has a perfect crystal ball, all we can do is guess. My guess though is our present tariff strategy will hasten the development of a world economy dominated by the Chinese first, then the USA/Britain will be fighting it out to stay ahead of the EU but when the former Soviet block aligns (and I include Russia) with the EU they will lap the USA/Britain without the anglo influenced mitigator. So, there we have it...or not. I could be completely off base and China may run home at the idea they might see a mean tweet, get their feelings hurt and capitulate. What do you think they will do? They already build a better Tesla than Tesla AND have these really cool pods scattered everywhere that you can pull your electric car into and in 5 minutes you drive out with a freshly charged battery pack swap!!! For half price. They have another strategic advantage over the west that they haven’t had to use. I hate to say it but they can press their populace into instant austerity at the stroke of a pen. Its not morally something we believe palatable but they are not going to blink guys, they don’t have to have us. Oh, and if you don’t think the North Korea/US “conversations” aren’t a Chinese test marketing of how to negotiate with the USA well.....
Their final ace up their sleeve, they can begin to sell the huge cache of US treasuries they own to fund any trade issues for the near to medium term. What will that do to the yields the USA would have to provide to future purchasers of treasuries. In the past, someone would just start a war and take what wasn’t rightfully theirs. That’s impossible in the information age with a militarily powerful country in the nuclear age.
Who is betting against China? That would be like betting on your local high school againt the New England Patriots. Its really sweet sentimentally. We need them to need us but we can’t force that as in decades past.
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@mapman
Ok, I think I understand. I too am concerned about extremism in any form, especially as a method of whipping up the electorate into a froth.
As to Breitbart, I just can't seem to even explore what they publish. My path crossed with the central character at Breitbart many years ago and I would rather avoid any exposure whatsoever. Some things a shower won't wash off.
Extremism in audio? I've seen evidence that it is alive and well too. I've seen here on Audiogon where the different camps get all bent out of shape because someone loves their $500 amp while others get bent out of shape because someone else thinks their $100,000 amp is a great value. There is no one size fits all in anything but the person with the $100,000 amp doesn't care if there is a group of picketers out there, certain that anyone spending more than they have arbitrarily determined is the ceiling. The "fuser question", not unlike the "birther question", seems to have no common ground. There are only 3 categories on that front: They absolutely know the truth and have taken a stance, they do not absolutely know the truth but have taken a stance and finally, the "really, don't you have anything better to do than argue over something so trivial?" I'm going to let everyone in on the facts...
(1) fuses work (most of the time, they blow when they are supposed to)
(2) President Obama was born in this galaxy |
@mapman
Please elaborate. Who are the “so many” and who is “others”? |
@millercarbon
Excellent points all. Your examples are all relevant and reasonably accurate. Debt is a big deal worldwide and defaults trigger some amazing ripples and a few tsunamis from time to time. The nice thing about some debt though is watching the reset. What we have never seen in world history though is an intentional default from a nuclear power. You could argue that Russia was a hybrid but I might suggest they were just trying to find a few loaves of bread after wall fell and the Long Term Capital Management collapse.
The one child policy was effective for China, slowing the exponential and unsustainable population growth while allowing them to get infrastructure and food production to at least a manageable level. Their birthrate is now somewhere between Japan on the lower end and the USA on the higher end, a little more than 1.5 children per capita IIRC.
Once again, China’s international holdings and trade reach rivals ours. The EU will trade with them. Period. The EU was formed to try to establish a trading block to rival us. Whether it stays together remains to be seen but its allegiances will drift further away from the politeness assumed by the US/UK. Additionally, the wave of nationalist/far right movements throughout the world jeopardizes free trade and reasonable discourse.
We all have a ringside seat and it will interesting to witness. This is far bigger than steel but the Chinese will not have to capitulate. Frankly I would be quite worried if they did. That would mean to me that they are buying more time to position.
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@oregonpapa
Yeah, things seemed so simple in 1956 but it wasn’t all that great if you happened to be non-white. In the USA, the systematic exclusion in the participation of this group in the prosperity of the American dream is well chronicled and beaten to death. We are actually in the midst of the “correction” of that which will take place over the decades to come. Those of Hispanic origin are on the cusp of being the largest ethnicity in the USA, if its not already. The African American group has alot of catching up to do economically but its hard when you factor mass incarceration. As a nation, we incarcerate more non violent offenders than the rest of the developed world. Its mind boggling and mind bogglingly expensive not to mention inhumane. An interesting data point, the amount of US GDP allocated to the penal system here today rivals non war military spending from the time of Eisenhower.
While on the subject people of color throughout the world and the injustices for centuries inflicted upon them, a great deal of the financial data that gets analyzed from history is so skewed that I hardly consider it valid. What data makes any sense from 1860? In the south there wasn’t much cost of labor to factor huh? The Irish were excluded to a large degree and all groups were exploited and grossly underpaid. The latter part of that century marked westward expansion fueled on the backs of immigrant Chinese who were excluded otherwise at every opportunity. The example cited wisely by @millercarbon mentioned the opium wars. Imagine that, Britain invaded China to force them to accept opium for trade payments rather than the silver that was agreed upon.
I’m too lazy to do the research but when I was in grad school I recall vividly that the GDP of the west (Europe/US) was likely overstated by double digit percentages for the century from 1830 to 1930 due to colonial exploitation of other peoples throughout the globe. Back to the mid 1950’s now Frank. Clinically speaking, it was a great time for the bottom half of the caucasian populace to get ahead. Top tax rates forced investment and there weren’t alot of Rockefellers or Mellons looking to build roads or hammer nails. Fast forward to today and I can understand that the descendants of that middle class that emerged feel threatened. They should from an economic standpoint because the economy values what it values and labor is cheap....elsewhere. Those same Indians and Chinese who were once exploited by the west are willing to work and work hard for alot less than a typical worker from the west. We can argue about quality of work as a differentiator, higher productivity and the moral intangibles we like to pronounce but the reality is their cost of living is less and their willingness to work for a lower amount makes competing economically with their manufacturing base quite difficult. When you hear a politician or a protectionist talking head stating “they should pay a living wage so we are going to slap tariffs on them until they do” are actually saying they should have to build in the decades of wage growth that has been accumulated here. Not gonna happen.
So, is an Indian or Chinese company not going to sell their steel or their cars into the rest of the world because someone with a 4 year shelf life in Washington is trying to raise their approval rating? Do you believe a country with nukes is worried about defaulting on some debt to Citibank? As long as there is someone else in the world willing to loan they aren’t and there is always someone willing to loan. Trying to measure net debt is an interesting thing at the macro level. Who really owes whom? The music stops and only then you discover how few WERE in a net positive on the books. I’m a pretty passive guy and not at all of the half empty camp but I really do believe this time is different. I view myself as a citizen trying to do his part. I pay my bills early, have absolutely no debt, help others when I can and most of all, I don’t get bent out of shape when change is inevitable. Spend any time in the rest of the world and you will discover that the most important change that has happened is the free and unfiltered flow of information. The narrative that we are here to help and spread the gift of western prosperity is not going to cut it any more. That was colonialism 2.0 and the developing world is on to it...we educated their leaders here and they aren’t buying it. They won’t be bullied going forward.
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@rodman99999
Excellent comments. I respectfully challenge your US made assertion. Maybe that’s what you intended...to buy US made only but I am 99.9 certain that whatever you happen to have in your system, something contains “ingredients” that are not 100% US. |
@blkadr
Between the two choices, the Rogue. LOL |
@oregonpapa
Very well said and 100% agree. What we long for is the FEELING of security and the sense of order that SEEMED apparent during those times. The Rodney King stuff was crazy wasn't it...humanity, it's a perilous cauldron.
I'm sorry it turned into pro-Trump/anti-Trump, if only for a moment. I've never thought he was a bigot, just insensitive to a degree never seen from our leadership. I believe he is petty and childlike to a degree never seen from our leadership, although one only need listen to a fraction of the Watergate tapes to see that like many things, Trump isn't new or unique. Many thought by electing someone wealthy, that personal gain would have been off the table. That's a reasonable assumption. As I've stated earlier in this thread, we all know alot more than was possible prior to the 24 hour a day news cycle with instant internet searches at a keystroke. Hey, in my lifetime, the press pool would collectively keep mistresses out of the conversation. Imagine that today.
@inna
It is certainly within Audiogon's purview to cancel any thread they choose, which you likely know more about than many. Why are you so angry? You drop profanity and snide comments repeatedly. How unfortunate. |
@rodman99999 LOL. I hear you and nothing wrong at all with non US parts or manufacture. That’s kindof the point isn’t it. There shouldn’t be anything wrong with utilizing the best part for the job. That kind of competition forces everything to a higher level of quality and performance.
My system is a United Nations of gear and they play nicely with one another. Maybe audio systems can be a shining example to world leaders of how to get along. Have a great day. |
The dollar is the world's reserve currency because oil is traded in US dollars. Also, ask England what it's like to be the world's FORMER reserve currency. If we think it can't happen, it's likely already happening.
If we aren't citizens of the world, we can't influence the world. There used to be some unanimity when our president was referred to as the leader of the free world. Now it evokes nervous chuckles. Others will still deal with us for the near term because its good business but the benefit of the doubt we used to receive when we took the road less travelled has eroded. "Halt the spread of communism, human rights, WMD's...."
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Frankly, the primary reason America exists is the basic premise that the majority must fight to protect the rights and freedoms of the minority. We haven’t always honored the spirit of this, but its an ideal worth chasing.
Our privilege to lead others internationally is granted, its not to be purchased, taken or demanded. To have a friend, be a friend. To get a square deal, you must give a square deal. Back to third grade right?
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@admin
Understood and apologies. Quick question: It’s ok if we bash @inna isn’t it? Even HE would join in I’m sure.
In all sincerity, thanks for running such a great resource for us all.
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@inna
I'm not sure I understand your post - "In other words, do something more than babbling on Audiogon." |
@millercarbon
I respectfully disagree with your tariff example. On paper, a tariff will force parity between a domestic product and an imported one. In theory, the perfect tariff will force the price of the imported product either at or above the price of the domestic product.
In practice though, a tariff is rarely levied to attempt to reach parity. It is usually punitive in nature and, therefore, it has the effect of raising prices because in a one to one commodity play, the domestic producer gains pricing power and they usually take advantage of the opportunity, like in my steel example earlier in the thread. Now, since we are talking audio, there are so many players in the market here, there is zero chance it would influence overall prices. Make no mistake though, China won’t pay 1 wafer thin dime in tariffs, the American consumer will. Or not. As many have already figured out, I tend to swim against the current from time to time. When I lived in a certain southern state 20 years ago and the local deacons were trying to ban record stores from selling what they called gangster rap, I went into a record store/best buy type of store and bought about $500 worth of the stuff. Never took the plastic off of them but I despise over reach so I did it. I then dropped them off at the youth center....hope it didn’t ruin the kids!
What concerns me most are companies like Primaluna. While I dont own any PL gear, those who do consider the quality and service to exceed alot of other offerings. What about American companies like Peachtree or Audioengine. Would a tariff be levied on an American company like Upscale Audio? What about a Dutch company like Primaluna who happens to manufacture in China? It would be a shame though because some entry level or gateway gear is built in China. I have an Auralic streamer which is pretty good and I’ve heard many enjoy their Chinese made dacs, speakers and amps.
Whatever the case, I doubt there will be tariffs placed on audio gear unless someone is distracted by a shiny object tossed into the room. |
@millercarbon
”Perfect should not be the enemy of good, ghasley. So don’t let it be.”
I promise, I’m not trying to be hard headed, I’m trying to be objective. I would take good right now knowing that perfect is beyond the reach of the team we have in place trying to get a deal done.
Miller, these things aren’t binary. If a tariff is intended to level a particular playing field, that has a chance of smoothing the demand balance here and reasonable people may, just may find an agreeable outcome. But punitive tariffs accompanied by tweets intended to cajole and embarrass and repeated demeaning insults in the press will not succeed. Full stop. We can debate the past and whether the tulip bubble in Holland was a scam or a naturally occurring byproduct of human greed but make no mistake, this particular China won’t lay down and take this abuse. They will simply choose a market where we export to with a product where they have our number and then undercut us there. They will repeat it throughout the world.
Its apparent you believe I’m wrong and that we somehow have a secret recipe...unfortunately we don’t. China learned a great deal by closely examining the mistakes made by the Japanese in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s and won’t repeat those. We will all learn soon enough that we are woefully unprepared for them calling our bluff. This has as much to do with saving face with the rest of the world than you might think. There is also a great many in the world that want to see the USA lose a bit of our arrogance, they are a little tired of the self righteous rhetoric. We educated their best and brightest at our top business schools and these guys are smart but most importantly, they have a plan and they are patient. I truly wish I was wrong but this won’t end the way you think. |
Still a good thread even though the guy that cuts my grass chimes in from time to time.
As I have stated earlier, I have a system made up of components from all over the world. Not 1 USA product can I say, with a high degree of confidence, is COMPLETELY made of USA made components. My speakers are made in Brooklyn USA. I do not know where the wood or the glue is sourced. The equipment to work the wood, the stain, the lacquer, I have no idea. The internal wire, I don't know. A USA made wire from raw materials mined from where, I don't know. The drivers I'm pretty sure are Scandinavian.
We need to understand the breadth and depth of the proposed tariffs to truly understand the potential impact.
@jonasandezekiel
Unfortunately, I do have a small amount of exposure to the political process. While I've never served in office or a governmental role (thank you very much), I've sat at large round tables and exchanged ideas with alot of really bright people from both sides of the aisle over the years. I came away each time with a deeper understanding of the complexities and intricacies these people face on our behalf. I can say with extreme confidence that in the overwhelming majority of issues discussed, really smart people can and do honestly arrive at opposing conclusions with the same data. I don't doubt anyone's motivations but it sure boggles the mind when certain things seem so obvious. Much like audio. |
@inna
Shouting "fire" in a crowded theater when there is no fire is not protected speech. Shouting "fire" in a crowded theater when there is a fire is heroic. If you demonstrably believed there to be a fire, that is also protected. Same word, same test for reasonableness. Hating on idiots, within reason, is ok (if not expected). Hating on people because of religion, race, ethnicity or other reasonable human difference is unfortunate and requires higher scrutiny.
Now if someone is inciting or intending to incite violence or a call to action to harm or otherwise harass others, and he is certain that the Clintons, the Bushes and the Bilderbergers conspired and brainwashed his dog into convincing the Federal Reserve to cut rates right after he purchased his new monster truck with the confederate flag graphics on a 96 month 100% note and that the additional interest he has to pay could have gone toward his Marlboro and high fidelity fuse budget then that is not typically free speech. (by the way, it was me who brainwashed the dog)
Maybe I’m mistaken though. The typical monster truck purchaser understands the capital markets far too well to confuse the connection, surely he would have purchased puts on LIBOR in advance of making such a wise purchase. Jokes aside, hating on others, be it tube, solid state, skin color, religious affiliation (or the lack thereof) is just a clear display of a lack of intelligence and compassion. The higher being with whom I speak on a daily basis doesn’t teach this, She teaches free will but inspires me to stay in my lane. |
@oregonpapa
Thanks for posting the link. It reminded me of those times in school where the teacher had to leave the room so they would put on a film strip! In short, that is surely an idealized version of free trade and I wish it were that simple.
Life is like a game of musical chairs. When the music stops playing and your best friend is left without a chair, what do you do? As a society (I'm talking the society of mankind, not residents of Boogerville), are we willing to share our chair with someone who has no chair? Would you like to be without a chair (or food,or shelter) and absolutely no one was willing to help? The purest democracy on earth right now seems to be India. Pure democracy works but it sure looks alot like a Darwinesque -survival of the fittest - Hunger Games kind of existence. Much like being forced to listen only to a Bose Wave Radio (dig how I just threaded the needle to make this post about audio). |
@nonoise
Lessor 7 wonders of the world?
Hmmm, does a Chic-fil-a open on a Sunday with death metal playing on the Muzak a qualifying event to be considered for wonderdom?
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@nonoise
I missed the deleted post, must have been a Duesie! |
@glupson
While its unlikely anyone would imply, because obesity rates are on the rise, that hunger isn’t one of our major challenges as a society capable of preventing it.
If someone were to use that data to make a case that all is well, they are ill informed....or worse. Denying that a problem exists makes it worse, it doesn’t make it go away. |
@inna
I too worry about the plight of so many who have so little, no matter where they happen to be. I am certainly of the mindset that we can cure it at home, generosity isn’t that hard. Regarding the poor, I agree, the income/wealth gap is returning to gilded age spreads.
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@nonoise
Was it about cables? By whom? I’ll bet it was by @inna dropping the f bomb about US made graphene coated interconnects again.
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No matter where you choose to give, its the giving thats important. Go to guidestar.org and research any non profit you desire...that even includes the NFL LOL! You can view several years worth of their IRS 990’s and even view highly compensated individuals in many cases (there are workarounds). But consider starting locally, direct giving. Consider food banks, soup kitchens and homeless shelters. Or local music programs, whatever floats your boat. Earlier this year I got wind that the local high school choir could not afford to hire piano accompanyists so we decided to underwrite that for the year. It would have been easy to complain about why there wasn’t any money for that when I find its even easier to focus on solutions where an immediate impact can be made. Habitat for humanity is another good program.
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@pedroboe
You are correct although it varies from manufacturer to manufacturer. Its bigger than that though, excellent parts come from all over the world and are used in a great deal of the “made in America by American hands” type gear. Same goes for cars, motorcycles...the whole idea of the righteous tariff imposing camp makes my head hurt a little. When no making policy they are probably advising pregnant teens on the merits of abstinence.
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@david_pully
While I agree with you in principle, there is a measurable point on the sliding scale where consumers abandon principle en masse to migrate to value. The 1% that is often bashed is not in Walmart nor buying direct from Aliexpress. You actually made the point with your new purchase. Once something becomes commoditized, its a race to the bottom. On a macro level, the higher raw cost/labor cost nation is better redeploying that macro resource to an area of less commoditization.
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@clearthink
It just dawned on me that your moniker might be, just maybe, an example of when you call your tall friend "Tiny", or your intellectually challenged friend "Einstein". |
@inna
You can't buy what isn't for sale! I heard this so often over the years, "The Japanese bought Pebble Beach", "They bought the Waldorf", yadayada. "The Chinese bought the rainforest"....the list goes on and on. Why doesn't anyone get angry with the seller while only the buyer gets bashed? The seller wants the enhanced value (there is coal under that mountain or oil under that meadow) and then scream and shout when the buyer who paid up for the asset tries to realize the value of their LEGAL purchase. Outlaw the extraction if that is our desire prior to an extractor of said asset paying up(that would be my desire in ALOT of places). Most areas have considerable examples of conservation easements where a non profit entity raises fund through donation or taxes and then pays a farmer/rancher a sum of money in exchange for deed restricting the property. it works quite well. They realize the financial gain and the public realizes it desire to keep open spaces.
Similarly, the west has been buying or taking assets globally for generations. Things get bought and things get sold and things get taken. Look at the Middle East oil fields (at least until they were nationalized). While I absolutely despise everything the Nazi regime stood for, the US and the Soviets took their technology for nukes and rocket propulsion as the spoils of war. Someone else takes the research of someone else and enhances, streamlines, solves problems and introduces new innovations. Once again, in order to negotiate with others you must know them. Intellectual property is a western concept, one which I respect, but thinking that a patent/copyright will solely protect your ideas is outdated. To try to block free market asset sales would send the far right over the edge..."the gubment won't let me sell what is rightfully mine to sell!" ""the gubment won't let me buy sumpthin I want with my very own money". Can't have it both ways. Reverse engineering has been going on since the beginning of .... engineering. I'd bet there was a dude who had an idea of feeding the masses with loaves of bread while there was another dude who believed feeding the masses with fishes was a better approach.....and then another came along and decided to feed everyone with loaves AND fishes...and he made history! Tesla, Edison, AC, DC....
Back to the rainforest and the environment....now, wouldn't it be nice if the populace (the world) would support and fund such important purchases...call it the environmental version of a stock buyback, to purchase large blocks of land to take it off the market forever. BUT....then there's always a neighbor named Cliven....CLIVEN....really?...who believes he has a right to graze his water buffalo (or whatever herds are adjacent to the rainforest in question) on this publicly owned land. |
@clearthink
History hasn’t been written yet on the bestest, greatest, most awesome and huge administration. Its not hard to win a negotiation with a tier 3 international power whose economy is in lock step with ours. It was the trade war version of wag the dog.
I dont know how you define "most successful in modern times". Is that the last year? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years? 50 years? 100 years? Reagan had a pretty good record and was internationally respected, even by our adversaries. Clinton had a good run and you could argue that the economy inherited by Obama made a pretty solid comeback. The recent tax cuts, which benefitted me personally, will go down in history as an inflection point, a point of no return for the middle class. |
Ok moderators, I understand now: “He sacrificed all that putting the nation first. The last one to do anything comparable was George Washington”. I guess we slid down the slippery slope huh?
Objectively @millercarbon you might have to admit that Fox News and Glenn Beck were not lifting up Obama or Clinton. It was just barely perceptible, but I think I caught the occasional barb. As to the congress and senate when Trump came in, I believe it was 3 elephants to no donkeys. You are right though, there is no credible, objective news organization NOT digging through the train car loads of “stuff”. Just too much smoke for a real journalist to leave it alone. The irony that you elected to mention Trump in the same sentence with Washington (I can not tell a lie) shouldn’t escape anyone with a sense of humor.
And yes, I do find this humorous. Examining the same set of facts and arriving at completely opposite conclusions is troubling. While Im am certain I am not exactly right, I know I am not completely wrong. In the meantime I’ll pay my taxes, occasionally shake my head in disbelief at the vast chasm between reality and futility. By the way, who knew Sean Spicer was an audiophile but he must be...he is alive and well and posting occasionally on this thread.
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A great many "Can't find my way home" (shameless hifi ref)
@david_pully Very cool, Ivy League! Didn't you find that going to the best of the best school with the best of the best students from both here and around the world enhanced your educational experience? Broadened horizons? Empathy and respect for others? If nothing else, the best music and the best parties were likely showcased by the South American students right? |
Brennan and Comey charged by whom? A valid court indictment or a birther indictment?
For the record it wasnt a George Washington joke...it was actually a Sesame Street reference... “which one of these is not like the other”? Probably shouldnt have been so vague, apologies. History will show a neck and neck race between the current occupant of the white house, Andrew Johnson and James Buchanan as the worst president in history. Im betting on the current occupant because, well, he more huger!
Can we all find some common ground? Surely there is something we can agree on. Like a bi-partisan 7-1 approval of Thurgood Marshall to the Supreme Court during the last year of Johnsons presidency. What about tubes absolutely kill solid state? |
As far as other nations sending their best and brightest to come study in the USA, is this new????? Is this a thing???? The USA used to send its best and brightest to England to study...oh wait, we still do. We send student all over the globe!!! When I was in graduate school, more than half of my classmates were International and you know what? They learned about us and our business methods and we learned about them and their business methods.
I get a little jacked up at the double standard I often hear that only Americans are allowed to set out in the world and expand their holdings but are quick to cry about it when the inverse, no matter how small, occurs. Here's something to think about....If you build an isolationist wall around yourself to keep other ideas and peoples out you soon realize that all that's left inside those very walls are the same people and the same old ideas....it also begins to resemble a jail, something we are quite good at building. |
@miilercarbon
@nonoise
@david-pully
Miller, we can finally agree on something and I commend you for your insight. We SHOULD protect the environment and stand up for those creatures unable to protect themselves from extinction. We can all agree that a new strip mall or lead battery acid disposal site isn’t worth forcing any living creature into oblivion. And other neighbors on Earth SHOULD be careful with the air/oxygen we breathe and drink. We should live with high standards of character and human decency and expect others to do the same. In fact, we should require our friends and trading partners to be of high character and to honor their word at all times. So, we should put out a document where potential trading partners know the rules if they want to trade with us. Agree or we just won’t trade.
Any tariffs raised though should be allocated completely to those fellow citizens of ours whose jobs in the steel, coal, (insert industry with displaced jobs here) were shipped overseas or rendered obsolete. There is a small but thriving buggy whip maker in Catalonia who flat out stole American jobs because they didn’t charge enough for their whips. We should tariff the heck out their whips and give it our former whip makers who are now, heaven help us, forced to turn out bridles and belts. Who could disagree with that? Otherwise, it would be a tax, a revenue generation sleight of hand and that wouldn’t be honorable. |
@david_pully
Tah-DAH!!! Since I know you’ve been waiting for this, I hereby, wholeheartedly, approve of your amp selection. I really like the lower power class A Pass amps and the XA25 is a work of art. I see they’ve come out with a XA25 integrated version and by the looks of it they figured out they originally underpriced the XA25. I think its over $8,000. While not nosebleed pricing for our hobby, that’ll sure buy alot red hats (I couldn’t resist).
Since I’m no longer into vinyl, I need the random but occasional interaction that comes with a tube roll or bias adjustment. LOL. i’m not looking for my system to be the audio version of a crisp white shirt, I enjoy a well broken in cashmere sweater.
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Hello all. So, what we have here is, as in all things in life, there are 3 opinions... “3 sides to the coin”.
Tariffs: the “tax” will be levied and Americans will pay it, OR the Chinese will pay it, OR it will be shared.
Tariff policy: the policy/strategy is brilliant, OR it is not brilliant at all, OR it is random and made up on the fly.
World standing: this episode will raise and enhance our profile internationally, OR it will erode and minimize our profile, OR it is benign.
To bring my rhetoric back to the center, I certainly believe Americans will pay the tax, the strategy is ill-conceived (it appears spontaneous actually) and I believe our international profile when evaluated in conjunction with our behavior with our friends (bash Canada and England sporadically) and our adversaries (N Korea, Russia) it will take a concerted effort by leadership and diplomats going forward to heal the damage. Thats provided others even want to dance with us anymore. Add to that that some of the genius negotiating going on is being sprinkled with a little post deal renegotiating on our end (if the NYT is to believed about the deal with Mexico actually being done weeks ago) which is never good. People begin to expect that a deal is not a deal and nothing is ever final. We have a history we would like to shake (treaties with native American tribes for instance) so that will enter the minds of trading partners more prominently.
So, how would the above affect audio? There will be little, if any, predictability or advance notice on the next tax/tariff. The flow of goods will also be sporadic and unpredictable should the rifts deepen. The price of in stock gear will rise and the supply of new gear with the potential for disruption or embargo will make then nervous too and they may actually stock up. Then, should the disruption to new supply not materialize, there may be sales with price reductions to clear it out. Also, depending on how deep the trade rift becomes, it may involve parts tariffs which will affect every manufacturer everywhere and could materially harm American manufacturers using internationally sourced parts. Of course, this will bode well for used gear maintaining its value with the potential of appreciation. Sort of like the car program “cash for clunkers” establishing a floor to used car pricing.
Let’s not kid ourselves though, this is home hifi and its an industry that at best is a rounding error in any conversation about any topic.of course, there may alternative truths...who knew that was a thing?
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