"High End" Manufactures of non-essential products will go out of business before they lower their prices to the point where people without a basic understanding of economics and general business could afford......
Some good points Andr. I agree there sometimes is too much model turnover, and I don't doubt much of it is market driven. Still, rapid model turnover can be of benefit to the listeners, real sonic improvements are often realized over time, model turnover keeps the manufacturer motivated.
As for my present audio purchases, I wouldn't even consider any purchases that didn't give at least 20% off retail, lots of options these days. I wonder if we'll soon see 30%,even 40% discounts.
Im an outsider, meaning Im canadian and a used market buyer. My system now consists of 10 k$ units that I bought 25-40% of their original MRSP. All my units were about 4 years old when purchased. Considering the currency exchange rate between our countries and the after tax purchasing power of an average Canadian compared with American, that is the only way I found to finally obtain the dream system in my home.
The present topic brings two questions in my mind :
First, even before the present crisis, isnt a sign that high end audio is way overpriced when equipment loses 40-60 % of its resale value within 3 or 4 years of its production ? We are talking about equipment that is built with life expectancies of 30 to 40 years with a depreciation factor of its value equivalent to an average car which will last only an average of 10 years.
Second, again without considering the crisis, how many sales would the high end audio industry lose buy turning the catalog every 4 years instead of 18 months ? Why always rebuilding the physical design, at superior cost therefore price to the consumer, when the main purpose of the unit (playing music) is not really improved ? Do first rank buyers of high end audio really renew their equipment every year or two to get the last look design in the listening room ?
In brief, could smaller high end manufacturers survive the turmoil by bringing their prices down and make their units available to more people by cutting in the redesign department and keeping in production their most successful units ? Furthermore, could they cut on the marketing expenses and still keep their distribution network alive on the reputation and high quality of their products ?
I'm not sure you need to be a trained economist to look around and see many examples of 1) people who used to be able to afford $10K pre-amps who no longer can, and 2) people who still could afford $10K pre-amps, but are choosing not to do so. If you can see a number of examples by just looking around, and I think we probably all can, then it only stands to reason that it's going to have an effect.
And, assuming that this is prolonged, and only beginning, the effects are going to compound. Strange times.
Were in a primary bear market...for you young guys...the last one was 1970-74...the Dow bottomed at 574! Kinda hard to beleive. Parabolic bubbles and echo bubbles always retrace about 80 pct. So real estate prices will decline 50 pct....Now with possibly trillions of debt dirivitives tied to housing...and wall street and the politicians trying to resurrect this bubble....do you think the Dow will hold or go up? Your'e right if you guessed no....it's like raising the dead....and I don't think the 2nd coming is here yet.
Eventually the the Dow will hit below 4500 and maybe lower...if the financial system cannot clear....which the politicians and the bankers think will be too painful (for them).....so this thing will drag on.....the lost decade...it sure is shaping up that way...
but I hope...the people in power swallow hard and take their medicine....I can only hope.
Yes, that is 3 and 1/2 million out of 200 million Americans. Next to Japan, we have the greatest luxury marketplace in the world.
That is a lot of rich folk.
PS: This comes from a company called IXI that tracks 9 trillion dollars in investible assets.
Who gives a rat's @#$ that the big companies are laying off. That has been a constant for 20 years. The real job growth engine is small to mid-tier businesses, entrepreneurial in spirit. I personally am not waiting around for GM to create me a job here in California.
Don't get caught up in the fear that the press is spreading. This country had 3 and 1/2 millionaires in 2006 and this country drives 40% of the global GNP.
Bongofury, don't you mean "3.5 Million Millionaires"?
WOW, I did not know we had so many economist types here. I'll use a rather straight forward terminology. It's called "cleaning the pipes". If cars and houses do not start to significantly sell in the next 6 months, the system will start to clean out all the weak businesses, and I would assume a somewhat luxury hobby market as audio will suffer just as all other business. It is just a matter of who.
I agree Ellery. Ther have been over 10,000 pharmaceutical reps for all of the "big pharma" companies laid off in the last year alone. There "were" quite a few car salesman making big bucks on those $50,000 SUV's people cannot make their payments on now. This is a different kind of economic downturn vs. the 1930's and even the early 1980's. There are many $100K-150K jobs that have been lost over the last year that will never be replaced. IBM, Microsoft, Sony and even Starbucks. A General Manager in a good Starbuck's store made a good living.
These are the people buying and upgrading their equipment and keeping the economy going. How would you like to have two kids in college and lose your $100k a year job? My local high end dealer markets Sony and Pioneer televisions. Only the better Sony televisions. He is the oldest Sony dealer in our part of the state. Made a killing on Pioneer plasma tv. If someone told me two years ago both of those lines could be in trouble, anyone on this site would have called them nuts.
If you can afford to buy $10k preamps and $30k amps, you probably aren't working for the State of California, and job security isn't one of your top concerns.
If you can (could) afford 10k pre-amps and 30k amps you may have worked in the finance/mortgage/RE industry and are currently unemployed.
Yes, there certainly is. Would you like me to unspin it for you? It's worse than it appears. Do you understand the derivatives market? Are you ready for the Option-ARM resets?
The last significant recession in 1981 was marked by 11 percent unemployment and interest rates of 19%. We are currently at 8.5% and interest rates are at .35%.
Interest rates in 1981 were 18% (only for a short while) due to Volker cranking them up to fight high inflation. The FFR is where it is today to fight DEFLATION.
Unemployment figures were redefined during the Clinton Era to only include U3 rather than the broader U6. Underemployed people are considered "employed" also.
If unemployment today was measured using the same metric as in 1981, you would see that it is in fact higher today.
Much of our contraction comes from a false real estate economy that was allowed to foster between 2003 and 2007, the so called "bubble."
The contraction doesn't come from a "false economy". It comes from loans being issued to people who never in their lives would have been able to pay it back. (This is where you really want to understand derivatives)
The bubble started in 1997 with the .com bubble. Instead of letting it deflate, interest rates were lowered and kept artificially low for too long. Add to that the widespread used of "Stated-Income Option-ARMs" more lovingly referred to as "Toxic Neg-AM Liars Loans" and BINGO...bubble on top of bubble.
Sure, the DJIA may only be wound back to 2002 levels as you say, but do you know how many companies have been swapped out in the last 18 months? Where do you think it would be had those companies been left as part of the index?
Will the 92% of gainfully employed people still buy quality goods?
once again, BLS has changed the way they report unemployment figures. Comparing 1981 to 2009 is apples to oranges unless you want to use the same way of defining unemployment. Don't forget the 13% living under the poverty level. Also, a person making $10/hr at a 40hr/week job isn't in "poverty", but I doubt that person will be spending much. Most other people were using credit as money. Now they are broke and have to pay the piper.
this country drives 40% of the global GNP
2008 U.S. GDP was $14.3T 2008 World GDP was $78.3T. The U.S. is about 18% of World GDP.
Approximately 2/3 of U.S. GDP is consumer spending.
From 2005-2007 Consumers were using their homes as ATM's to the tune of about $1T per year on average. Take the velocity of money into consideration and that $1T contributes to much more than just $1T of GDP.
Now that the HELOC money is gone, where will that extra $Trillion come from?
The government spending won't create inflation for a long long time. They are currently filling the black hole that the derivatives market comprises.
BTW...the global OTC derivatives market is over $1 QUADRILLION.
And to those that think that "foreign" markets will pick up the slack...sorry...there has been no decoupling.
Not every manufacturer will go out of business of course, but it won't be smooth sailing for any of them either.
Yes, I have multiple degrees in Economics and Finance. No, I didn't lose a SINGLE penny in the meltdown.
Is the problem "solvable"
ABSOLUTELY!
...just not in the ways they are attempting to solve it.
What scares me most is the basic lack of economics or business savvy espoused in this thread.
The original poster asked, "Will there be a shake-out in high end audio? Will we continue to see $10k preamps and $30k amps?" The answer in short is, "Yes." Companies that base their sound business plan on primarily selling $10k preamps and $30k amps will probably be ok. If you can afford to buy $10k preamps and $30k amps, you probably aren't working for the State of California, and job security isn't one of your top concerns. It's those companies that base their business model on "average Joes" who want a taste of the good life are those that will really suffer.
I think quality at a certain price point, rather than items costing 3x as much for that extra 2% in performance, are going to be where the markets will be strong. People like us will still be spending money on gear, but it may not be as much as before. $2000 interconnects and $15,000 preamps just aren't going to be popular. Others looking to get into 2-channel will have a set budget, and it may not be $15,000 anymore: perhaps they only have $4000 to spend, and that is still alot of money. They should be able to get something that sounds great for that price, not "mid-fi".
Every response thus far has had at least a grain of truth in it.
As for gvt. spending, gvt. spending has in truth gottten us out of depression, WWII, the biggest gvt. spending program in the history of the world, 42-44% of GDP, depending on whose statistics you believe.
On the other hand, gvt. spending will have major costs down the road, inflation and debt are only the beginning.
And then you can have little or no gvt. spending, let the market speak, a lot of suffering will occur his way as well. Debts need to be paid down, 30 years of a go-go economy will take a long time to recover from. And then can you say, unemployment, watch out, gvt. will be spending big time again to support the unemployed, perhaps a deflationary spiral with no end in sight.
And then we have the middle way, middling amount of spending, middling amount of recovery. Many are going to suffer, gvt. will only save the middling few. I suspect this is the path we'll follow, ideologies count for everything today, people won't put up with doing nothing or doing everything (the conservative vs. socialist agendas). Still, perhaps this is the best path.
And so the middling path and audio. Audio spending will be down long term, some are going to suffer, others will continue.
Any discussion of the future of our economy is pure speculation at this point. We have never been in this position before, what works will only be determined by the facts of what happen. I think we'll have a better idea sometime late this year.
There is a lot of disinformation out there. The last significant recession in 1981 was marked by 11 percent unemployment and interest rates of 19%. We are currently at 8.5% and interest rates are at .35%. Much of our contraction comes from a false real estate economy that was allowed to foster between 2003 and 2007, the so called "bubble." If you look at the stock market, it has merely reset it prices back to 2002. So the real question is:
0 Will the 92% of gainfully employed people still buy quality goods?
0 Will luxury brands reset their mark-ups to be more in line with the current reality.
I think the answers are both Yes.
Don't get caught up in the fear that the press is spreading. This country had 3 and 1/2 millionaires in 2006 and this country drives 40% of the global GNP.
Direct sales probably the only way for hi-ends company to survive. I know my post will be deleted but this is the fact: I receive 20% discount from certain hi-end retailers and they still make quite a bit profit above "dealer cost". Sorry to offend any dealers in this thread but 40/60 cut to order a piece is quite a it of profit. That does not include "incentive" from certain manufactures Only my bloody lawyer charge me that much !
In evaluating price changes from foreign manufacturers, keep in mind that some of the apparent reductions are simply a reflection of variations in currency exchange rates, especially given the recent strengthening of the USA dollar. They may therefore have no long-term significance.
You will see a change in this industry. People cannot afford $8000 cd players right now. Alot more cannot afford $2000 cd players. Look what is happening at Sony, Pioneer and Mcintosh.
How many cd players do you think Esoteric sells in a normal year? Imagine how many this year. There will be a change in our audiophile landscape in the next two years. Those in the business real business world know this.
We've heard a lot about the bailout for the economy. I don't recall having heard anything about what the government will do to prevent the parasitic behavior that got us into trouble in the first place.
1) This is a global economy. No matter how bad it gets for some, there are others (perhaps in other parts of the world) that will do fine (maintain the status quo) or do better because they are first to the next great thing. We've seen this in many specialty markets like wine, old cars, art and so on.
The question now is how the experience of this global unwinding will reshape peoples priorities. Manufacturers whose product has broad global appeal, solid distribution and brand recognition stand the best chance of riding this out.
They probably will not need to lower their MSRP especially if they can control their input costs - yes, more will go offshore
Those who are big enough and are very brand savvy may develop a lower price offering - imagine Lexus establishing Toyota...
2) Distribution channel - here in the US the hifi store has been under tremendous pressure for a long time. (I have not travelled abroad enough to know what it's like elsewhere)
It seems very likely that a good many more will fail. Those that stick around will get increasingly picky about what they carry. Net result to the manufacturer is fewer outlets - which means that they can't afford to spend as much on advertising. Service will no doubt suffer as the retailers and mfgrs fight over service costs, as will the availability of in-home demos. Nor will anyone want to carry much inventory (see below)
No doubt there will be opportunities to pickup excess inventory and demos at attractive prices as individual stores and companies fail - you already see quite a bit of that here.
Newer companies - look at NuForce, Oppo and the Taiwanese DACs on ebay for example - will bypass the dealer and go straight to the consumer via the Internet. Most of them will probably offer versions they can sell worldwide thus effectively enlarging their prospect pool at very little additional cost to them in either engineering or manufacturing.
I will leave it to you to decide if these are in fact high end companies and if the model would work for a $3,000 preamp - my guess is that some will make it work and others will go bust trying
The best ones will be able to realize some modest economies of scale which might give them negotiating power with their suppliers. But all that is likely to do to prices is allow them to hold the line. Especially if as many people expect we are getting ready for a dizzying inflationary spiral.
2) Company size:
A lot of the premium players are very small shops - thinking Merlin, Wavelength,DeHaviland and the like. They can probably "survive" selling fewer units - no big staff, no big overhead. But don't expect them to invest much in R&D. And where dealers are involved, service and support will become ever more problematic as there are fewer dollars.
As Kirkus points implies, a lot of these folks are enthusiasts more then they are business people - this is especially true of the very little companies who can't afford the expertise to optimize their supply chain - nor build enough of any one thing on an ongoing basis to make it worth such an investment. Without such a change it will be difficult to lower prices and stay healthy.
3) Breadth of product lines. Johnk pretty well nailed it. Expect fewer choices. Neither the manufacturer or the dealer is going to want to (be able to) inventory multiple models and finishes. We are likely to see a return to "any color so long as it's black". Variants will be built to order on a schedule similar to furniture - say 12-16 weeks from order to delivery.
4) Consumer behavior. One would expect someone buying new to take more time, do more research and buy established standards or classics (ie blue blazers and little black dresses). These are choices of unquestioned excellence (Stereophile A) backed with service and support and a record of maintaining their resale value.
To the extent that is true; the people who buy new - the ones who are essential to the health of the industry - will be less inclined to swap in and out chasing the flavor du jour.
Net to us here is there may well be less variety of recent product; and prices may be more tightly clustered on the desirable stuff.
At the end of the day, those who have cash in hand, are oppotunistic and don't hesitate to pull the trigger will probably end up with some great deals - just as is true today.
Beyond a certain point, this remains a luxury hobby. Just because times are tough doesn't mean that there is any reason for it to change.
I don't really know, but i received an email from spearit sound on their specials and they looked to have some pretty good deals on a few select items. I was a bit surprised at how low they were.
Businesses and industries that took off during/because of the credit bubble will go away. No more funny money. People spending money they didn't have nor ever had the possibility of repaying contributed to ALL of our incomes believe it or not.
I can say one thing however. If there was a high end audio company that went public like TRLG did for idiotic $300 jeans...I would have bought Jan '09 puts on them too.
Will there be a shake-out in high end audio? Will we continue to see $10k preamps and $30k amps?
If the "banksters" keep paying themselves average bonuses of $112,000 then I expect $30K amps will continue to sell easily (especially if taxpayer bailouts foot the bill). The only question is how sustainable is all this? I mean how long can taxpayers continue to bailout financial institutions so that their employees can easily buy a $30K amp each year?
If you are the shareholder of a public corp. you want a good rate of return of your investment. In the US, cost of materials, labor, medical insurance, workman compensation....etc... these increasing overhead expenses will decrease your net earning per share. You have two choices : 1. jack up your price on the same product to keep the same rate of return of investment and running a risk of loosing cutomers to competitions or 2. Find a backward country or countries where labor is cheaper, medical insurance is affordable....to get a better profit and there is nothing wrong with making a profit in a trade of for the risk of an investment. It's a simple concept of economics 101. Red or Blue, you face the same problems. The question is would you'd rather have a temporary solution to a permanent problem or you want to survive ?
Heres my thoughts since we are in a hi end hobby expect luxury tax from the liberal movement soon. With a large part of our taxes going to illegals and citizens that are on welfare it leaves us the working sheepel to pay for all of this big government spending. Hope i'm wrong, from what i've seen so far we are in Big Trouble moving from a free market country to a socialist society. We will have a state run audio company who will provide us with gear.
Better listen to your music now while you can before the bubble bursts.
Bombaywalla, you beat me to it. Abucktwoeighty, I agree. CEOs maximizing short term profits with no concern for the future isn't necessarily in capitalism's best.
When I first started looking at the Naim CDX2 it was $5600.00, it went up to 6150.00 and more recently back to 5600.00. Sonus Faber just had a sale of speakers. I think that there will be a reshuffling of prices in some areas and consumers will be more carefull about their purchases.
>> 02-18-09: Jvcvcrman08 >> Just to throw in my .02¢ >> This is what happens when you let in >> way too many illegal`s. >> ALL of the american jobs are now overseas >> and yet they still come here. >> The US needs to deport these people at once! >> Otherwise the US WILL crumble and fall. >> And DON`T think for one second that 3rd. >> world countries, like China will help us out! >> This is ALL Bill Clinton`s FAULT! >> Get rid of NAFTA! >> And stop importing goods from China! >> And then you can stop shipping jobs overseas, >> and THEN Americans WILL have jobs again, and then >> the the economy will grow once again! >> THIS IS THE ONLY WAY OUT OF THIS MESS!
Funny you should say this! Your system picture shows all Japanese gear (Sony)!! Not 1 piece of all-American gear! It says your speakers are Infinity (American) but I cannot see a pix of it.
It isn't the illegals coming in. It's the corporations looking for a higher profit margin by having third world countries making their goods. They get fatter wallets, and we get highere unemployment.
a manufacturer who sells components direct, exceeding say $5000, who do not rely upon the sales of their components for the bulk of their disposable income, will probably not lower prices or go out of business.
it is the dealers who will fail and possibly, over time., more products will be sold direct.
the demand for high priced audio gear is relatively inelastic.
don't expect lower prices. in some cases, the mark up is too small for a manufacturer to lower prices.
When I read these threads, I sometimes get the impression that many don't have a good idea of some of the basic cost/margin structures of consumer electronics goods.
For starters, the cost and market dynamics are very different between mass-market "commodity" products and specialist products. If you read the posts about video products on the Audiogon forums, it's immediately evident that what constitutes "expensive" or "worth the money" is much different in the video world, where virtually ALL products are sold in a mass-market, commodity context.
In hard economic times for a commodity market, what happens is that the larger, stronger companies have more resources to weather the conditions, and they will force the smaller companies out of their markets or out of business, or they will acquire them. This is exactly what happend in the automotive market in the 1930s, and something similar appears to be happening in the flat-panel television market (and its related OEM parts market) today. Consumer prices generally drop (frequently below actual manufacturing cost) as inventory is shed, and as stable companies strategize to force out their less-stable rivals. Just like poker.
But for a specialist, niche product like high-end audio, consumer prices are much more closely tied to actual manufacturing cost, and company survival is more closely tied to sound business management. Manufacturers will go out of business because their products are overpriced or irrelevant, or they fail to adapt to changing levels of demand. But the manufacturing costs will remain largely the same, and the players in a specialty market are WAY too small to really affect this, so the end price to the consumer will change relatively little.
Just to throw in my .02¢ This is what happens when you let in way too many illegal`s. ALL of the american jobs are now overseas and yet they still come here. The US needs to deport these people at once! Otherwise the US WILL crumble and fall. And DON`T think for one second that 3rd. world countries, like China will help us out! This is ALL Bill Clinton`s FAULT! Get rid of NAFTA! And stop importing goods from China! And then you can stop shipping jobs overseas, and THEN Americans WILL have jobs again, and then the the economy will grow once again! THIS IS THE ONLY WAY OUT OF THIS MESS!
Maybe you will see low priced models from some companys. Others will go out of business. So less choice for customers but also less choice for parts, material venders. Since venders will start closing, the ones not will charge more. Also sales volume will be reduced thus again higher price to manufacter. This means higher manufacters costs not lower. So enjoy the low priced flood of new and used gear the future will be less choice for audio consumers and prices near the same or gear built down to a lower price.
If they can't or won't lower prices then it is imperitive to take other action . This can take the form of a no charge extended warranty , free shipping , free cables , discount on another item , delivery and setup something to show that they value you as a customer and appreciate your buisness ! This is what I expect in a good economy and demand in a poor one !
There are many retailers selling the same item . You can vote the good ones in and the bad ones out with your purchases . I do . It's your money and your choice !
I will now turn this soapbox over to the next one ?
The used market is sure feeling the pinch. There are more great deals right now than I can ever remember seeing, and very little is sold. Of course one of the problems is most potential buyers need to move something first which they can't do so it all sits.
On that note I've always wished we had the ability to search pending and sold listings. If I've missed something about how to do that would someone let me know?
No, but they should and dealers should cut their share. Most of manufacturers will not do it and will die. Its good. Manufacturer which does not build its business model around customer but around dealer network (now it was 3/4 dead even in 2008) will die! and soon
Its good for the industry, its good for us - consumers, MUSIC LOVERS. I don't want companies which want to sell me something for extra money and then not to repair on time or not repair at all, ship, for example, amplifier back to customer WITHOUT checking if its working (and not on bench but by listening) - they should die.
Most of us had this experience - we send back our equipment not once, not twice, but three - sometimes four and more times (depending on your patience). No more !!!!
Will stay first class dealers, dealers who have extensive network of friendly customers and similar minded manufacturer. It will be easier for all of us who will remain and with reachable price and with quality and with support.
Storm is coming and all $h..t will die. Will be less stinks around.
Predictions are always difficult. Having said that, I think there will always be a high end, wealthy consumers will always exist. Big ticket items also have higher margins than the lower priced spread, they can lower the prices, continue to make a good profit, ie. remain viable.
I can't see how there wouldn't be some shake-out, less purchasers means less sales, some have to suffer. I would thing this would be more in the mid and mid high end, however, the less wealthy are more affected by downturns in the economy.
I do think the long run will see lower prices generally, supply and demand rules. We've lived in an over leveraged bubble economy for far too long, its going to take some time to pay down our debts and get right side up.
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