With the Chinese tariffs taking hold on 100% of the imports and maybe even on Mexico forthcoming, the audio industry is going to see another big jump in their sky high prices. Anyone making purchases ASAP to get lower prices from existing inventory before post tariff products enter the marketplace?
It will run out in 2034 but still be able to pay 80% of what you'd normally get if the present state of affairs remains the same. Just raising the cap on S.S. from to around 135,000 will extend the 100% payout about 30% further into the future. Before this year the cap was around $128,400 and this year it will go up to $132,900. Part of the problem was recognized.
It's hard for me to follow and retain all the figures but it's not rocket science. It's policy. As long as you have one side of the equation believing that S.S. should fail (since they believe government shouldn't be involved), then they will do and say everything they can to ensure it's failure.
Those on the other side of the equation, see a very simple way to keep it going, and under ideal conditions, double the payout and still be solvent forever.
If the cap is removed, entirely, then you could double the monthly payout, which would be nice for those who've been robbed and deprived of their pensions. Also, if you grant a path to citizenship for the undocumented who already work here (and pay 10-12 billion a year in taxes for services they will never receive), you'll have that base that will pay into the fund, paying it forward. It's how our S.S. has operated since it's inception.
Again, it can be done if you want it to work in your favor, or you can cut your nose off to spite your face, just to affirm some misplaced convictions.
The Chinese people are not the bad guys, their system simply doesn't value intellectual property or the rights of an individual. Be thankful they don't in the case of gun powder or pasta, since the Chinese invented these things among many others and did not patent/copyright. Jokes aside, intellectual property is a western concept. Inna, every society makes its own rules...trade or don't trade but the subject of trade should be a no whining, no resentment zone. If you must trade, then get the best deal you can and everyone just move on down the road. If someone breaks their deal, stop trading. If you can't afford to stop trading with someone then you have a different problem to fix.
@oregonpapa
Social Security is a nice concept but it would be nice if everyone would refresh on their history from time to time. At its origin, Social Security is a tax, plain and simple. The tax was imposed on the workers at the time and paid out to those too old/infirm and of a certain age. I dont remember the exact life expectantcy when payments began but IIRC it was scheduled to begin paying a couple of years PAST the average lifespan. It was never intended to be an individuals retirement plan. As far as someone dying before the got to collect all they paid in? Thats the way it works. It is equally as fair as someone collecting MORE than they paid in because they lived too long. As I stated above, the only fair way to do it is to pay you back all of your contributions compunded and you are on your own! Oregonpapa, doing some quick math, you would have lost out on that deal many years ago!!!
Any way you slice it, if your present budgeting for old age/retirement includes social security as a requirement to make ends meet, stop buying audio gear immediately and save more money before you get there. Not because Social Security may or may not be there, it will be there. You should save more because it was never intended to underwrite your retirement, it was meant to supplement. I'm not going to begin taking distributions until they force me (presently age 70 I think) and even then, I will donate it to various good causes. I don't know if I will win or lose actuarily by waiting because I don't know at what I age will pass away. Once again, some people get a good deal, some don't, that's the why we look at averages. I have paid in the maximum allowable to Social Security every year since the 1980's. Most of those years I was maxed out easily within the 1st quarter. Now if I were like many I would grouse about whether or not I will get MY money back and whether it was a good deal for ME. But I choose to be a little more philosophical about it. My responsibility as an inheritor of my piece of this great country is to pay it forward...and backward! Backward in the sense that my contribution pay Oregonpapa because he paid for those before him. My responsibility forward is to be generous, enjoy my life, consume what I need (who defines need?), help those who are less fortunate and share a positive outlook with anyone who will listen.
Remember, not only did you contribute to Social Security but your employer did too. It totaled around 15% of your income before taxes. If you averaged only $30K, per year, over your working life, that’s close to $220,500. If you calculate the future value of $4,500 per year (yours & your employer’s contribution) compounded at a simple 5% after 49 years of working, you’d have $892,919.98. If you bought an annuity and it paid only 4% per year, you’d have a lifetime income of $2,976.40 per month. The average S.S. recipient, since 2011, gets around $1200/month. The folks in Washington have pulled off a bigger Ponzi scheme than Bernie Madhoff ever thought of. And; they put HIM in jail..
btw:
Entitlement my BUTT, I paid cash for my social security insurance! Just because they SPENT the money, doesn't make my benefits some kind of charity or handout. Congressional benefits(aka: subsidized healthcare, outrageous retirement packages, 67 paid holidays, three weeks paid vacation, unlimited paid sick days), now that's welfare! And someone has the nerve to call my SS payouts, "entitlements" ?
Agreed. A great corollary to what you just said was when a talk show host asked a German businessman why he paid so much in taxes and didn’t mind it. His response was that he’d rather be a wealthy man in a wealthy country, than a wealthy man in a poor country.
The Nordic countries, where taxation is high, have a B.M.I. (a basic monthly income that guarantees a livable standard) and what used to be a minimum wage of around $20/hr so yes, they were and are more than happy to pay higher taxes since they’re covered from the cradle to the grave. They have the best outcomes in all measured areas, the lowest inequality, and lead the happiest lives on the planet.
Americans who’ve worked in these countries were amazed at the quality of life, only to be back under stress when returning home.
@rodman99999 Now here's something we can agree on! Any S.S. monies borrowed by the politicians have to be paid back. Since when can they claim some form of bankruptcy when they created the mess? Bills were forced on Americans who tried to create jobs and business, and failed or were overwhelmed by medical bills, only to have no second chance but to repay, in full, plus interest, on their debts. I think it was Thomas Jefferson who had something like 7 bankruptcies trying to invent and create something that would benefit people.
Regarding the gold standard: "Gold does not taste very good, even with seasoning. It generates no returns unless it is at someone else's expense" (ME)
@jafant
I buy gear made by Americans and sold by Americans, unless it happens to have been made elsewhere by people somewhere else. I believe in free trade and legal purchases.
@nonoise
I appreciate your words and agree with your post without reservation.
@ghasley Thank you for the kind words. I just wish I could compose my thoughts as well and as elegantly as you do. I should have gone farther than just an A.A. degree. 😄
Anyway, are you going to buy equipment full of Chinese parts or not ? Or it depends, including on quality and price ? Mining practices, forced labor, abuses etc., remember ? Yes, you will. Chinese know it, they are clever, and they are cleverer. They also think centuries and millennia not short or even long term goals.
@ghasley I thank you as well for your well reasoned and eloquent responses. A welcome relief from the tendency of most debate these days to devolve into real life versions of the movie "Idiocracy." It would be wonderful if all publicly debated disagreements were as logical, and level headed as yours.
Working as an independent contractor for the last 40 years of my working life, I paid into Social Security 15% of my gross taxable income. I started paying in at the age of 14 and stopped paying into Social Security two years ago at the age of 78 when health problems forced my retirement. I haven't figured it out, but I may still be on the losing end of the proverbial stick. One thing for sure ... I wish I were still working. I never worked a job that I didn't like. I had parents that instilled a good work ethic into their kids.
After reading through these posts, it is very apparent that we have a set of very knowledgable, intelligent and well-written members on board here. I love learning experiences, and it is very much appreciated by me.
Frank, you are an exceptional man and thank you for the contributions you make toward furthering the hobby. I wish the self employed were not slammed with both sides of the SS tax. I also regret hearing that your working days ended before you were ready. Me, I love my work and I hope that I get to continue until I'm ready to hang it up.
@rodman99999
Social Security is not a Ponzi scheme, it has been politicized, mischaracterized by many and mismanaged from its optimal outcome but it is not your money. It is a tax on today's workers paid out to yesterday's workers. That's the deal that was made for us all 80 years ago and that's the way it goes. It is not a savings account that you somehow have a right to direct. No offense intended, but your math may also be incorrect. The example you cite shows the money growing at 5% compounded. While that is a safe assumption for market returns over time, it is not a safe assumption for a risk free rate...you would need to drop in the average return for TBills over that time to achieve that. Additionally, you are assuming that returns grow tax deferred. In order to purchase an annuity, the funds would have been taxed at the time of the annuity purchase, significantly reducing the buying power and thus, the payout. It would have been far wiser to purchase the annuity with annual payments rather than a lump sum at end of career, which would have required after tax contributions. Still might have exceeded the returns one gets from SS BUT, you also offload the risk that you buy your annuity from the wrong company and they go out of business or become insolvent. There is a reason the best insurance companies pay far less on returns in annuities because they are conservative and prepare for material market fluctuations. I retired a pension plan at my last job and we paid over $1 million more to purchase annuities from John Hancock when compared to the next company (on a $7 million dollar purchase). Hancock was the highest bidder but they were the highest rated for financial strength. (Oh, and as the fiduciary, I would personally be on the hook in the event of a default by the annuity provider, LOL)
@inna
Everything happens in due course. Most populations will eventually strike a good balance between the workforce and the overall good of society. You cite China and some of their poor practices and yet, they have come so far so quickly. Do they have a long way to go, I certainly think so but they are an economic anomoly the likes of which the world has never seen over the past 25 years. That will be eclipsed over the next 25 years. It was ok while the west built factories and profited but when the Chinese do it themselves it not ok? Listen, I don't agree with much of their human rights but they are better today than when the west was building factories there. Are they better because of the influence of the west or in spite of the west?
@photon46
Thank you for the kind words. I love a good reasoned discussion on almost any topic. I learn so much, I really appreciate the opportunity.
I simply seek peaceful co-existence with the other human civilization on this planet. I want or need absolutely nothing from it, except the situation with the environment. This both civilizations do share and got to address it together. And if they refuse...
Even without any financial engineering they know how to do things. Just recently monthly fees for maintaining business account jumped from $15 to $25 per month without any explanation or extra service. That's Citi Bank. They probably got millions of accounts like that. Chinese tariffs ? Other banks are doing funny things too, there is no competition. And I was thinking about buying some Chinese tubes and a few capacitors. Now I can't afford them. You see what's happening ?
Dear Frank, I think I just lost control of my ability to click! While I want badly to hear what you have to say and reference, my hand just won't click on a Breitbart link! LOL
My feeling is that while governments may compete hard with each
other and at times be angry with each other, those actions and
sentiments don't usually reflect what is happening at the every day
people level.
For the most part, people are people the world over. They want to live their lives, raise their families, be healthy, live as comfortably as possible and be left alone.
On the other hand, governments ostensibly want to protect their people but seem to believe that to do so means that they must gain as much economic power and influence as possible...the natural result of which is that governments compete with other governments....and sometimes in ways that is painful to people.
Where does that leave us...ultimately there is usually a recognition of mutual need. As an example, China doesn't produce much oil, not that they couldn't, but they do produce a lot of rare earth metals. The U.S. on the other hand does produce oil but has given up production of rare earth metals. So, we each produce what we are good at and then trade at fair value....or we each try to produce everything, including what we are not good at resulting in higher cost to both. Time will tell how well we figure this out.
Well, I dared to click on that Breitbart link and lo and behold, a true believer of a foot soldier decries communism and totalitarianism in the halls of congress.
Is he referring to Ivanka Trump and the more than 34 trademarks she got from communist China?
Or the deals Trump is making with the Chinese on the side?
Or Mitch McConnells wife, Chou, who’s father owns one of the world’s largest shipping lines representing communist China, and happens to be our Transportation secretary in the White House and deals with Chinese nationals at Mar-A-Lago?
Or Mitch himself, who took $2.5 million from a sanctioned Russian commie thug for his reelection campaign and allowed that commie to build an aluminum plant in his state? Talk about Kentucky going red.
Or is he talking about Trump’s love of autocratic communist leaders that he professes love and admiration for?
Or could it be that the guy mentioned in the article is playing the commie card knowing full well that the intended audience (typical close minded FOX viewer) is not going question his lies?
I've instructed my wife that if I ever suffer from a brain injury, a degenerative brain disease or if I'm ever comatose to immediately turn on Fox News, the Kardashians or TMZ. If I fail to regain my faculties within minutes in order to turn them off, she has been instructed to move us to a state where assisted suicide is permissible. If those don't pull you out of a coma, nothing will.
Yes! Shoot the messenger. That way, you will never have to see the message.
nonoise ... What are the lies of which you speak? I didn’t hear any lies coming from the person in the video. Also, the corruption you alluded to is exactly what we need to get rid of. It is in both parties, the media and academia as well. Do some research on California’s UC system for starters. You’ll be shocked. From there, move on to the Los Angeles Unified School District for more shocking details.
It's not so much lies as half truths. We all spy on each other. We're no angels in that regard. Some cry for free markets but there's no such thing, and there will never be.
Some cry out for capitalism to rule the day yet forget that Adam Smith based his economic model with the proviso that it's all done to protect domestic markets, but go to any Chamber of Commerce office with a business plan and they'll instruct you on how to go to Asia to have it made and American taxpayers will foot the bill for your move.
You can't demand allegiance to a country and then abandon it when it suits markets. Yet, that is what our business leaders do, on a regular basis. 30% of the shareholders in American corporations are foreigners. About the same amount got that big tax break that benefited the already filthy rich. Look online and see how much land in America is foreign owned, which unless we nationalize it (how commie like) we'll never get it back.
I don’t believe @nonoise intended any slight toward you, maybe the person in the video (which I have yet to see if it is referenced in the link to Breitbart) but not you.
I again pose a familiar question, why is everyone so angry? Is there considerable surprise that our fellow citizens of the world are capable of dishonesty? Surely not. Politicians? Surely not. TV repairmen? Lawn services? Surely not.
If we would all commit to vote our conscience, not our self interests but our conscience, then our elected officials may begin to resemble ladies and gentlemen of character. I won’t comment on a particular politician or party, things like that can be a slippery slope. I am concerned that future elections will be decided by those casting votes who get their news and information from a single source. People, please read alot and from a broad variety of opinions. Think about what you have read and use your own intelligence to make up your own mind. You shouldn’t want Steve Bannon or Steve Jobs charting your path any more than you should want Jeff Bezos or Jeff Beck.
Donald Trump almost won the popular vote and without diving into politics at all, just observations, I was kind of surprised that America elected a president who went broke in the casino business. Do you realize how hard it is to lose when the odds are stacked in your favor? Term limits would be nice. People with good intentions on both sides of the aisle get elected and immediately they are in grave danger of experiencing a gradual but steady erosion of their character.
The main point of this post though is, if you believe you are a good person, then go do some good. Help 1 person today, help feed the hungry, mentor a child or someone less fortunate, go volunteer at a soup kitchen. Maybe it will catch on. People of character having a great day helping others become impervious to the negative schlock and bitterness that pervades. The more we give, the more value will be placed on giving and maybe, just maybe, people will begin to care less about what they are getting or entitled to.
Isn't it obvious why the prices are high and getting higher, Chinese tariffs or not ? Tariffs on European products are in the making too, as I understand. Besides steel. Corruption is the norm, lack of it should be punished and it is punished.
I don't understand. My post got deleted and all I said was that I have no audio equipment from China or Mexico. Watch this will be deleted again. Is Audiogon becoming like Facebook/ Twitter?
Ozzy ... There’s just something about you that pisses them off. *lol* (jk)
gasley ... The problem with communicating as we do over the Internet is that we cannot see facial expressions, hand gestures or body language. As a result, sometimes our comments are taken in a negative way, when we were intending to be friendly, or at least passive. There was nothing in nonoise’s post that I took as offensive. Nor did I intend to offend.
nonoise ...
There are no "half-truths" in the fact that Tibetans have been ground into the ground by China. There are no half-truths about the fact that China has locked up between one and two million Muslims in internment camps. There are no half-truths that thousands of Chinese citizens were ground to death under tank tracks and shot to death in Tiananmen Square for the "crime" of peaceful protesting. Same with stealing our patents, hacking our computer systems, manipulating their currency and dumping their products.
inna ... Yes, it is obvious why prices are going up. When money is "printed" into existence and distributed throughout society, it dilutes the worth of money already in the system. This causes more money to chase fewer goods and prices to go up. The politicians blame the consumer, as the Gerald Ford administration did. I wonder if any of you guys remember Gerald Ford’s "WIN" buttons. "WIN" stood for "Whip Inflation Now." The thrust was to get consumers to stop consuming so much. *lol* Those among us who were more astute kept saying ... "consume less, hell ... stop printing money!"
But then, what do I know. I don’t even have an AA degree like nonoise does. Heck, I barely made it out of high school. My Mom considered it to be a miracle. :-)
Frank
PS: Even Adam Smith promoted a "safety net" for those less fortunate amongst us.
@oregonpapa I agree with your latest post on China but they are norm, and in comparison to North Korea, Saudi Arabia, and even Russia, they look less and less onerous. Yet, our leaders make deals with them and personally profit from it and when the cameras are on, they denounce them when it suits them.
Nothing bad will be said about Russia since a certain someone still wants to build his hotel there after he leaves office. That same certain someone went around Congress and gave high tech nuclear info to the very country that flew two airliners into the World Trade Center just 16 days after they butchered a journalist with American legal residency.
Take your pick. It's like floating down a river of shite and picking out one turd and saying, "this one really pisses me off."
They are not our leaders, they manage corporation America the way they see fit, and they almost own it. I heard educated rumors that Facebook has a very tight link to CIA/NSA.
Well, the topic at hand is our tariff policies with China. It has, however, morphed into a conversation about the general overall corruption in our government. Corruption exists on both sides of the aisle. Is there anyone here who would disagree with that?
In reading the posts here, I think we are all pretty much on the same page. How we see the solution is the problem. I take more of a liberal stance ... in the Jeffersonian sense, that is.
It has been said: ... "Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely." With that in mind, why would any liberty devotee want to increase the power of the central government and take power away from the states in order to do so?
Frank
PS: ghasley ... Once again, I appreciate your well thought out posts. Excellent, thank you.
Frank, they will delete this thread if we go into the details of power distribution and political structures. What you quoted regarding power was already known to African Homo Sapience hundreds of thousands years ago.
Hey! You callin’ me a homo sapien? I don’t swing that way. *lol*
Let’s not delete this thread.
On audio equipment made in China ... Yes, the prices will increase. Tariffs are basically a VAT tax on the end consumer. Let’s hope for an even-steven trade policy where citizens of both countries benefit. I’m sure the citizens of China would like to be driving Chevrolets and Ford’s made with American steel.
Frank
Admin Audiogon Official
Can we try to keep the topic related to Audio again? Please.
But, in keeping within the parameters of the topic, the price of audio from China as it relates to tariffs, I can't wait for some sanity to somehow creep back into the minds of those who understand American tariff laws and how they are legally enacted, as a countervailing force to the imbecilic and illegal way it's been recently done.
All of this is a made up crisis, our economy be damned.
Tariffs are a direct result of not understanding economics and free trade. Its really not complex if a country is trying to be a good partner and reasonable.
A few truths:
1) Tariffs are paid by people who still buy stuff even after a tariff has been levied. Think about that for a moment. Don’t like tariffs, don’t buy the stuff. If you are ambivalent, keep buying or don’t keep buying.
2) There has never been a tariff levied among reasonable equals since the beginning of time that hasn’t escalated. Eventually, cooler heads prevail. Sometimes it takes triggering the 1929 stock market crash which, in turn, triggering the great depression to get the attention of the decision makers.
3) In a moral society, the tariffs collected would be paid out those most adversely affected by the necessity that triggered the tariff in the first place. They are hardly free market, free enterprise or intelligent.
4) What happened with the recent steel tariffs? USA steel companies raised their prices to parity...to match the price of Chinese steel plus the new tariffs. Outside of our borders, do you believe the USA steel companies are holding the line on those prices or do you believe they are competing internationally by pricing their product fairly? So, USA steel is sold into the international market for less than you can buy it here.
5) In point 4, the shortsighted pricing action taken actually renders the tariff completely ineffective. If both steel beams are priced similarly, then its about specs, quantity, price locks and deliverability. Had the USA steel providers left their prices alone, not one ounce of Chinese steel would be purchased.
Once again, we should all suck it up and pull together. @inna your posts just seethe anger, maybe I’m reading too much into it but anyway....
Read intelligent writings that DIFFER from what you presently believe. If you only read the blog of someone touting alt currencies from Panama or if you only read your Costa Rican off the grid live off the land guru you are missing some stuff. If you are far right, read some reasonable writings from the other side. Its not important if you agree but it is important that you understand. We shouldn’t be so self assured, we should be objective. For every Tienimen, there is Wounded Knee or Kent State or Homestead. They are all equally bad but sitting around wringing your hands and griping isn’t going to solve anything.
If someone voted for those in office, then the tariffs are their cross to bear. Learn from it and vote differently. In between, nobody gives a darn how angry and disenfranchised you may feel. Fix it, get happy and realize that you can choose to make a difference today or you can choose not to....but make no mistake, its a choice you are making!
I apologize if anything I've written has come off as a lecture. That was not my intent. I've just noticed alot of your postings seem angry but many of those posts were deleted by the moderators, maybe at your request. Anyway, my apologies.
Now I will take issue with "dilettante" which is intended to convey that there is no knowledge to back up the statements. In the immortal words of Bob Newhart, "I would never mean to denigrate you, which by the way means to put down".
If you are angry and miserable, its highly likely it didn't happen over night and it may also be likely that you are exactly as you have intended. If that's the case, my apologies for trying to spread a little sunshine. Nothing worse than a happy SOB bouncing in and spoiling the fun.
@nonoise
I like it...to bring it back to audio, didn't Bob Marley record something about shooting the tariff?
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