What do the statistics say about the age of Audiophiles and the replacement rate?

What we’re experiencing is a perfect storm as it relates to the demise of "specialty audio."

Back in the 70s, new sales guys would show up to work on Day One with a love for music and the equipment that reproduced it. They’d already have a working "audiophile" vocabulary and would often bring in their own favorite demo material from the personal collections. It was cool, and prestigious, to work in an audio store.

Some manufacturers, seeing success with loyal specialty retailers made the decision to expand distribution to other channels. This not only drove prices down, but had other impactful implications for the industry as a whole. Big box business models were more efficient and could operate at lower margins. Department and catalog stores actually used "hifi" as traffic building loss leaders -- selling items at their net, net cost -- or below.. So, here’s the special store forced to sell an item at his cost, ringing it up, and presented with a credit card (with 3%-5% fee on the gross sale -- including sales tax) for payment. This got uglier with the Internet and the loophole to bypass sales tax. The brick and mortar retailer, being part of the community could not get around collecting these state and local taxes and pass them along to the consumer -- OR pay for them. Many customers "assume" the retailer will not be competitive and not give them the opportunity. Or, simply "catalog" them -- use the retailer’s space, time and investment in inventory to make a selection -- then order it via the Internet. Yes, some Etailers were true innovators, but more often than not, vampires who took the brand names and technologies developed through years of hard work by "specialty" dealers and sucked the life out of them.

But, the biggest casualty here was "the audio specialty" salesman, or audio consultant. Once respected for their knowledge and commitment to being a good steward of the customer’s money, was now demoted to "audio broker" whereby his/her value was providing the lowest cost for the item of interest. Usually on an unfair playing field (big box, Internet, etc) who would leverage their strengths to their advantage. As one industry professional stated: "It was once the fear of not buying the right product from the right dealer that day. Now it’s the fear of not getting the best deal that day."

This lead to fewer and fewer people desiring to make high performance audio their career. I’d like to acknowledge the high end "boutique" stores were fairly insulated from all of this. But, I can’t overemphasize the role of "consumer" hifi stores that offered quality systems for first time buyers, and an upgrade path to better gear. Some who would eventually "graduate" to authentic high end gear. Without actively supporting the tools (and people) necessary to build a wildly enthusiastic, growing hifi base, the industry shot itself in the foot. More accurately, both feet.

Could it get any worse? Short answer" "yes."

While high performance audio was seeing incremental increases in technology and performance, the video industry was exploding. This was initially good in the beginning for the "specialty stores." Products that were intimidating, complicated and expensive were the forte of specialty retailing. Consumers simply didn’t want to take the risk of getting it wrong. And there was money to be made. But as products became less complicated to own, set up, and cheaper, consumers didn’t need "experts" to put a system together. Innovations were coming fast and furious. When video was experiencing Blu-ray (hifi fidelity picture and sound) and "the race to zero" where the competition to decrease the price of flat panel televisions to the lowest on the street, audio was "ho humming" along with little to grab the attention of the now, new, video enthusiast. Audio took the back seat to video. Audio "enhanced" the movie experience as opposed to being the center of attention in dedicated 2-channel systems. First time buyers loaded up their flat panel TVs and soundbars in their minivans and went home. It sounds "good enough."

Some manufacturers eventually figured out that bypassing those who made them successful was not a good idea, and threw support back to them. By then, it was too little, too late.

- from a 50 year+ industry veteran

@mopsauce

Lack of discrimination, like ignorance, must be bliss.

From my experience, it's usually older people at any of the Audio stores I go to. Just turned 50 this year, feel like I'm the young guy. This was especially so when I went to my first Audio convention. 

I think with the availability of music everywhere, a dedicated listing room is fading. Just like young kids do not watch TV anymore, they stream everything on the phone or laptop. Hi fidelity is just not important to them. My kid loves music! But it's K-pop, had a nice 2ch setup in their room. This didn't fit the "ascetic" a cheap $50 all in one unit replaced the system. It sounds like poo, but my kid loves it. When we listen to music on my system, they are not impressed with how good it sounds. 

When most people consume music streamed through a phone on cheap earbuds, these are not the people who will drop $5k on speakers. It's just not important to them. Also think this is why Spotify has yet to come out with HI-Rez, most people just don't care. 

Yes, then there is the HT scene. Everything is sound bars, and multichannel.  My HT speakers are several levels down from my 2ch speakers. I do have 11 speakers  and 2 sub in there. Yet, music doesn't sound as good. 

The takeaway is, most people consume music far differently than we did just 20 years ago. Fidelity is not as important as access. Expensive systems are lost on most young people. HT is still king, where money and retail space is taking up. 

I don't see any evidence that that the audiophile hobby is dying or even shrinking.

1. There are more audiophile brands every week. I see company after company coming onto the scene with new gear at all price levels. Peruse the latest Music Direct catalog and tell me this industry is dying.

2. The market for used gear is larger than it's ever been. Browse through all the ads in Audiogon and USAM. The great majority of this gear is coming from people who have upgraded - a critical source of revenue for the industry.

3. The upper end of the market has been exploding with new companies specializing in 6 figure equipment and new model introduductions at a rapid pace.

4. The lower end of the market is also rapidly expanding with amazing new products introduced every month. You can put together a really good 2 channel system for under $5k if you are just streaming. $15k buys you what would have been considered top end sound a couple decades ago.

5. The number of retailers has indeed shrunk but the retail industry has regionalized to accomodate the cost of flooring and demonstrating high priced gear. If you are going to buy piece costing multiples of $10k you will travel a few hours to hear it.

6. Yes, the high end is dominated by geezers. We're the ones with the money. But there is always a crop of middle age music lovers waiting untl the kids get out of college to start putting together their dream system.

 7. The two major audiophile publications (TAS, Stereophile) are vibrant and healthy. They have plenty of advertisers to support them and each issue brings ads for new companies and new models. How many cable companies do we need?

8. Audiophile shows are booming. We now have shows all accross the county and attendance regularly sets new records. Journalists are seeing an increase in younger people and women at the shows. The hotel hosting this year's AXONA sold out months ago.

I've been involved in this hobby for over 50 years and I can tell you that it's always been on the verge of extinction. We audiophiles love to get twitterpated about how we're the last great hope. However it's now bigger than it's ever been and it is growing across the range of price and quality. Those geezers you see in your family member's audio shop have always been there and in a few years there will be a new set of geezers to take their place.

I have had a very similar discussion / debate with many others in the ’vintage’ audiophile community... you know, the ones that have storage lockers filled with 50 - 60 year old equipment and won’t part with any of it because it is an "investment"...

Mark my words. In the next 10 - 20 years the vintage branch of the HiFi market will dry up faster than that firewood you have stacked up next to your garage. And the vast majority of these ’investments’ won’t be worth the cost of having 1-800-GOT JUNK come and take it all away (which is what your kids are going to do after you are gone...) And I would think similar to the modern audiophile industry as well.

Look at the ’musclecar’ market on a large scale to see what the future holds. Yeah, if you have a fully restored Hemi Superbird or a 70 Chevelle SS LS6 you are still golden... but that 1969 Nova with the 350 that cost you 20K to do a full-on rotisserie resto in 2015..? You aren’t even going to recoup that 5 -year old restoration bill anymore... in fact, you would be luck to get back HALF that cost today.

Now, in fairness, there will ALWAYS be at least some demand and interest in the most high end and rarest audio equipment, whether of the vintage or modern variety (or classic musclecars, for that matter). And there will always be high net worth individuals willing to spend a premium in order to acquire said equipment. But all those folks with the Marantz receivers and the 1980 Klipsch Heresy speakers and the JBL 100s, etc. who think they are sitting on a goldmine of ever increasing value...

IMO the time to sell and get what you can is fast approaching. Holding for longer than maybe another 5 years will almost certainly bring no better than current prices - and quite possibly you will have missed the peak, and maybe even less than today’s pricing.

There just won’t be as many people interested in this stuff anymore. Period.