What do the statistics say about the age of Audiophiles and the replacement rate?


I'm unable to verify this so I'd like some guidance.  I have a family member who is an authorized dealer of some really nice product lines (ARC, Magnepan, Sonus, Bryston).   

He won't confirm or deny my hunch, but at his shop I see mostly older white, affluent men. I see very few middle age men and no men in their 20s.  I don't keep all shop hours, but I do spend about 15 hrs./wk. there.  My relative won't show me his sales demographic but I can see with my own eyes.

So my question is this:  Is there an equivalent replacement stream of new blood entering the Audiophile world or not? Do you have statistical proof? 

If the universe of Audiophiles (supposedly 20,000 in the lower 48) is indeed shrinking where does that leave the manufacturers and dealers? 

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I don't see any evidence that that the audiophile hobby is dying or even shrinking.

1. There are more audiophile brands every week. I see company after company coming onto the scene with new gear at all price levels. Peruse the latest Music Direct catalog and tell me this industry is dying.

2. The market for used gear is larger than it's ever been. Browse through all the ads in Audiogon and USAM. The great majority of this gear is coming from people who have upgraded - a critical source of revenue for the industry.

3. The upper end of the market has been exploding with new companies specializing in 6 figure equipment and new model introduductions at a rapid pace.

4. The lower end of the market is also rapidly expanding with amazing new products introduced every month. You can put together a really good 2 channel system for under $5k if you are just streaming. $15k buys you what would have been considered top end sound a couple decades ago.

5. The number of retailers has indeed shrunk but the retail industry has regionalized to accomodate the cost of flooring and demonstrating high priced gear. If you are going to buy piece costing multiples of $10k you will travel a few hours to hear it.

6. Yes, the high end is dominated by geezers. We're the ones with the money. But there is always a crop of middle age music lovers waiting untl the kids get out of college to start putting together their dream system.

 7. The two major audiophile publications (TAS, Stereophile) are vibrant and healthy. They have plenty of advertisers to support them and each issue brings ads for new companies and new models. How many cable companies do we need?

8. Audiophile shows are booming. We now have shows all accross the county and attendance regularly sets new records. Journalists are seeing an increase in younger people and women at the shows. The hotel hosting this year's AXONA sold out months ago.

I've been involved in this hobby for over 50 years and I can tell you that it's always been on the verge of extinction. We audiophiles love to get twitterpated about how we're the last great hope. However it's now bigger than it's ever been and it is growing across the range of price and quality. Those geezers you see in your family member's audio shop have always been there and in a few years there will be a new set of geezers to take their place.

I have had a very similar discussion / debate with many others in the ’vintage’ audiophile community... you know, the ones that have storage lockers filled with 50 - 60 year old equipment and won’t part with any of it because it is an "investment"...

Mark my words. In the next 10 - 20 years the vintage branch of the HiFi market will dry up faster than that firewood you have stacked up next to your garage. And the vast majority of these ’investments’ won’t be worth the cost of having 1-800-GOT JUNK come and take it all away (which is what your kids are going to do after you are gone...) And I would think similar to the modern audiophile industry as well.

Look at the ’musclecar’ market on a large scale to see what the future holds. Yeah, if you have a fully restored Hemi Superbird or a 70 Chevelle SS LS6 you are still golden... but that 1969 Nova with the 350 that cost you 20K to do a full-on rotisserie resto in 2015..? You aren’t even going to recoup that 5 -year old restoration bill anymore... in fact, you would be luck to get back HALF that cost today.

Now, in fairness, there will ALWAYS be at least some demand and interest in the most high end and rarest audio equipment, whether of the vintage or modern variety (or classic musclecars, for that matter). And there will always be high net worth individuals willing to spend a premium in order to acquire said equipment. But all those folks with the Marantz receivers and the 1980 Klipsch Heresy speakers and the JBL 100s, etc. who think they are sitting on a goldmine of ever increasing value...

IMO the time to sell and get what you can is fast approaching. Holding for longer than maybe another 5 years will almost certainly bring no better than current prices - and quite possibly you will have missed the peak, and maybe even less than today’s pricing.

There just won’t be as many people interested in this stuff anymore. Period.

https://youtu.be/Pz5tSjE4afM?si=L7LgeRRzwAWwRLnE

Saw this videos along with the most popular comments. The future of audio looks very gloomy. A lot of the younglings are lured into the Reddit and ASR cult. Getting brainwashed by the dark side of measurements.