Macro: Certainly, reality has a way of messing up our plans. There is truth in your point that "the stereo biz" is a product of baby boomers (or even earlier generations), and is indeed aging and dying off. Ironically, the general availability of music playback may have created a generation who takes it for granted; our job is to show them that music can sound better than the 'podders would believe possible. At least in my view.
John: Rather a bleak forecast, but there are many reasons why one could believe that's possible. Certainly, there will be major changes in the way business is done.
Thanks for your input, gents! |
Perhaps this years RMAF will give us a barometer on the health of the high end industry. This show as opposed to the monolithic mega shows which encompass's the entire industry as whole. The RMAF is geared toward the music fanatic and high end gear, which is more in keeping with what we are trying to get a pulse on. It would be very interesting to see the demographics on this show and speak with the attendees and vendors to get their input.
While I do believe the high end industry is on life support, there remains many business's and manufacturers holding their own quite nicely. While it may be bleak indeed, it would be premature in my opinion to post the RIP on the headstone just yet. High End will always be around although the landscape will come to be leaner and the dealer base will no doubt shrink. But that may be a good thing. Get the pretenders out of the way, so we have only the contenders that know what they are doing on both sides of the fence. |
Actually,, I think high end audio is better than ever for serious audio consumers in general.
Those who are not serious about there sound or audio manage to still get by just fine these days also.
I don't doub't many vendors are having trouble, but I have to believe the truly robust ones are still getting by and making a decent living, even if the economy is not going full throttle as it was a few years ago before the brakes were suddenly and unexpectedly applied as a result of bad business practices which helped fuel the beast. |
I'm not ready to retire or die anytime soon nor are the people purchasing ipods. People will always listen to music and "audio". If you look at what computer gamers are doing with computers, displays and sound you'd see many, many parallels to High End Audio. Those people are all about upgrades, performance, sound and the "experience." BTW- I think "High End Audio" needs to be rebranded.
The days of sitting in front of two speakers listening to an album may be over (for a generation) but younger people are interested in sound. You just need to know where to look and how to connect. Are they going to purchase a huge two channel rig right up front, no; but if you wrap it with products that make sense you can get people to move along a continuum.
Every kid who buys a computer with a set of speakers should be a target. Every youth who uses a computer (and vinyl) to Dj should be a target. Good DJs are crazy hot now. Why do you think big tobacco recruits them? Everyone who upgrades their car stereo at the time of purchase is a target. I've noticed that all car manufactures offer top tier audio systems and people opt for them. These are conscious decisions based upon perceived use and value. |
Interesting thread! The number of well-thought responses indicates true passion for our hobby. I'll chime in with a few thoughts.
- I believe that there is NO short-term answer/fix to the dilemna the industry is currently facing. The combination of a miserable economy combined with the younger generations' apathy towards quality sound is the equivalent of a KO delivered by Mike Tyson (in his prime!).
- It isn't just the gear that's doing poorly, I read somewhere recently that the overall sales of music is worse than ever. Downloading music isn't the only reason but it's a big part of it. From reading other info from the other music sites I hang out at, I know for a fact that the average music artist doesn't consider CD's as a source of income anymore. This is key. The artists that make them consider them to be promotional tools for their live performances, some don't see them as anything more than a replacement for a business card! And this from the average artist that's kinda/sorta making it, I've read blogs from other very talented musicians stating that the financial bottom line of making a CD is so daunting that they don't think they'll be releasing any new music! While we, as gear lovers, are lamenting the state of the audio equipment industry, I think as music lovers, the situation is even MORE alarming.
- The saving of this industry lies with the ability to get the younger listeners on board, period. If this isn't done, 10-20 yrs from now people will be recalling THIS time as the 'good ol' days'. Obviously, before an interest in gear can be cultivated, an interest in music has to exist. When I was a kid, I HAD to go to glee club, music history was taught in my elementary school in the south Bronx. Opera, Classical, broadway plays were basically forced upon us and while I didn't particularly care for this stuff when I was a kid, I couldn't be more thankful for this now. The Arts must be re-instated in all schools at the elementary school levels.
- It was mentioned previously about how the industry is basically selling to the same customers on a rotational basis. This industry has never been able to figure out how to properly market itself. The question's been asked so many times over the years that I wonder if there's truly an answer. One thing that I've always wondered was why I never saw much advertising for gear in music magazines. Whenever I'd see an ad it would be this tiny unobtrusive thing in the back of the mag that probably only caught the eyes of people who were already into audio. If that was the goal, than mission accomplished. I think the bar nees to be set higher, way higher. I understand advertising costs vs. the economy but there's another thread ('twins' I think) showing how many famous audio companies are actually owned by a larger conglomerate. Hard to believe that some of those companies can't have larger advertising budgets than they do. Going back to my original point about ad placement, I would go where the music-lovers go, to the music magazines (perhaps ads in mags like Hightimes wouldn't be such a bad idea!).
- Lastly, I'd be interested in hearing about how the industry's doing in place other than the U.S. A few years ago, while in Italy, I bought an Italian audio mag out of curiosity and was struck by the preponderance of audio manufacturers there,companies I'd never heard of. England always seemed to have a greater awareness of audio and also has quite a few manufacturers and the orient also seemed to have quite a fever for audio. I understand that we face a world-wide economy crisis but I still wonder about the status of audio worldwide. |
Marketing efforts are applied to enterprises that suggest a strong future with aggressive growth potential. No well-endowed corporation will view high end audio that way. As John our prophet said, "The dream is over".
There is a chauvinism on display here in the stubborn insistence that hope exists for the audio we knew to somehow rally and make the encore real. It can't. The encore is in your minds. You are rowing upstream. When I stated earlier that the high end was hanging on by its fingernails, I was referring to you diehards who refuse to acknowledge what you know in your hearts to be true. The string has played out. There is nothing left but the mourning. That's what Saint Ronnie said. "It's mourning in America". He set this up. He knew it was coming. Of course, he probably never was aware of anything as trivial as our hobby but he did set us off in the direction that finished us off. It's not too late to name a speaker after him. |
I suspect that voodoo claims and marketing is much to blame. After all, high end is synonymous with very expensive highly marked up but ordinary wires - how can high end ever expect to be taken seriously. Only cranks are going to buy 3/4 of an inch thick speaker wires and place them on electrical utility transmission cable ceramic isolators...credibility is a huge issue for high end. |
Holy cow, pass me the Xanax! I don't know what the view from the internet is, but from the ground, east coast to west, nothing is looking_that_ bleak.
>>>I suspect that voodoo claims and marketing is much to blame. After all, high end is synonymous with very expensive highly marked up but ordinary wires<<<
Hmm, as I wrote before, in high-end end audio as in other small market economies, corruption is a private enterprise. Some companies inflate their margins beyond reason and its not exclusive to wire--though it is easier to spot. There are pockets of corruption in every industry. The days are all but over where this type of gouging goes unnoticed. Checking product re-sale values and looking into a company's history, pricing and background can help. Ask questions. Again, social networks and relationships matter in this business and economy.
In the bigger picture, much of what is best about high-end audio is still very much alive, even thriving. There remains a strong network of talented manufacturers, truly excellent dealers and a host of media outlets world wide that care about covering high-end. There are also many thousands of passionate enthusiasts that fill the show rooms in Montreal and Munich as well as respectable turnouts for RMAF and CES.
There are thousands of industry people of all walks who care passionately about what they represent. They follow the tradition of long hours to earn a modest living doing what they enjoy. I don't see that going away any time soon. Companies with solid infrastructure, well established world markets and superior products will last through worse than some tough times, others wont.
There may be some good to come out of it, such as better products at lower prices. Yes, when the robber-baron's realize the money-printing gig is up, they'll look for a more lucrative scam. There are only a very few in this business that take home more than a working man's salary and those that do for the most part, have earned it.
I acknowledge the mentioned challenges and well written apocalypse scenarios above, but its pretty damn early to be writing final chapters for an industry made up of some tough and talented individuals. When the economy begins to sort itself out, there may be a slightly smaller but stronger industry revealed, having gone through a difficult period. Tough times ahead and some changes? Absolutely. The end of high-end audio? Not a chance.
Grant
Shunyata |
Mac: Who'd have thought of getting upside-down in an amplifier?
Jeff: If it wasn't caused by the economy, it certainly affected the economy, with 19,000 jobs lost.
Ferrari: RMAF this year will have more exhibitors than ever, and manufacturers don't spend money on shows that don't produce for them. The manufacturers doing well right now are generally long-established brands. It's very, very difficult for new brands to break into a shrinking pool of dealers, many of whom are thinning out the number of brands they're carrying.
Map: It's hard for me to think that things are better than ever when much of the biz is on life-support. Clearly it's a buyer's market, but at what cost, long-term?
Sherpa: Yup; upscale gaming is largely untapped, but offers great promise for audio sales.
Chaz: Gloomy. Bizarre how artists used to put on shows so as to sell records, and now the recordings just draw in audiences for live shows.
Many US manufacturers are surviving on sales to overseas markets, and many foreign markets are fairly robust. Many well-respected, successful brands have no presence or limited presence in the US. Gryphon comes to mind.
Mac: The old pool of customers is indeed diminished, diminishing, and dying out. That doesn't mean quality sound won't find an audience. As we've said here repeatedly, it's got to go to the iPodders, gamers, can-fans, and so on.
Shad: I've said it before, I'll say it again: in audio, EVERYTHING matters. Voodoo? In some cases. Whether or not it's cool to believe in it or even logical, a lot of that weird and even laughable gear can make a big difference in the sound.
Having said that: would you want to emphasize that if you have any hope of acceptance in the mainstream marketplace? Of course not.
Thanks to you all for your insights. |
Grant: Agreed. I don't know more passionate, committed folks than those in audio. Yes, there are some bad apples; generally, they are found out and weeded out.
The recent resurgence of regional shows indicates that there is still interest and life in the field, and there are still large, untapped audiences for high-quality sound reproduction.
Will Hi-Fi ever regain the general level of acceptance it had in the '60's or '70's? No, it won't. That doesn't mean it's dead.
Far from it: I expect the advances in performance in the coming decade to be almost beyond belief.
The best is yet to come. It just might not have a 2" thick faceplate. ;->
Thanks as always for your thoughts. |
We're a cult, guys. We hold to obsolete ways. We insist that others would follow us if only they would take the time to listen. If they choose to ignore us, we forgive their pitiful ignorance and redouble our efforts to show them the light. We seem to be unaware that we are the ones who are oblivious.
Young people, maybe because we have provided them with no sense of security, are very mobile in their minds and lifestyles. You have thousands of dollars and hundreds of pounds in hardware. They have an I-Pod and ear buds. You have thousands of discs. They have a hard drive. You own a house. They will probably always rent. You had a career, often at one job. They expect to be traveling and hopping from one work opportunity to the next, always remaining somewhat mobile.
Times have changed and high end audio has not. Any adaptation that our hobby makes to the ways of the next generation, will necessitate moving away from what we hope to protect. Current trends are evolutionary, not the result of intelligent design. We are seeing the future and insisting it is a blip, an aberration, to be tolerated until the natural order is restored. Due to our jingoistic insistence that our remembered youth will rise again, we remain blind to the truth that the ship has sailed. What we cherish is the garage tinkerer aspect. Digital crapped on that a bit in the 1980s but we responded with aftermarket upgrades, modifications, and cosmetic redos. When that played out to some extent, we revived analog and began sponsoring garage tinkerer turntable makers. We ignored plainly superior designs from Japan because they came from large corporations which ran contrary to our tinkerer/inventor mythos. We elevated these guys to celebrity status and lionized those who were bold enough to lead the charge toward the Absolute Sound.
Now I hear us talking about large companies and mass marketing techniques as the way to reverse our decline. It won't work because it isn't in the spirit of the dream we continue to grasp tightly in our closed minds.
Naturally, there are those entrepreneurial individuals who want to keep it alive until they've wrung the last nickel out of it, but they are running out of ears. Too many of us are folding our cards and standing pat. What we have, after all, is the stuff of dreams. Let's just live out our last however many years and enjoy the present such as it is, rather than lamenting the consequences of inevitable change.
|
Mac: Ouch! How DARE you call us a cult?? See if we ever update you on the latest secret handshakes or passwords again!
I guess when you get right down to it, I'm not part of the cult. I hate gear I have to fuss over or diddle with. I want it to work immediately, work flawlessly, work every time without issue.
Is that so wrong? ;->
At one level, audiophiles are as out of touch as those guys who spend their weekends fine-tuning a Holley carb.There will likely always be some who enjoy that, just as there will be many who find (like me) such technology to be endlessly frustrating and fiddly. Sorry; give me fuel-injection, any day.
Similarly, I love turntables, have read the different cartridge set-up methodologies, have seen Michael Fremer demonstrating cartridge set-up. I can no more do a decent cartridge set-up than I can do a quadruple bypass. You can't tell me there's not a need for an expert dealer!
There will always be people who want music in the home. Will there always be card-carrying members of Audiophilia Nervosa? Some. As the technology becomes more hands-off there may be less to tweak--but never underestimate the ability of an obsessive to find something to obsess over!
Thanks for your thought-provoking comments. |
Unfortunately, there is some truth in regards to high end audio being a cult like thing and also that there are credibility issues that most are incapable of dealing with effectively.
Now, rather than worry, back to listening to some music.
I'd be willing to bet millions around the world are doing exactly the same thing right now in one form or another and what they listen to sounds just fine to them. |
Hifi Gary,
Brooks Berdan is expanding because he now has major competition 20 minutes a way. He was a lone soldier for years and keep his store very small. Now there is another dealer with a big showroom and some similar lines. In fact the new dealer has alot more high-end lines than Berdan. I'm sure he felt threatened and figured he had to do this to stay in business. |
Pretty good cobbler: http://www.sonos.com/demo/s5/demo.aspxIncorporated into ATC SCM-100A would add enough upper crust to make a very enjoyable slice of pie. Seems like folks, are forging ahead into a euphonious future, and I was unaware of it. |
don't forget price .... its the root of the rot picture a young man getting started in life with a wife and kids being told 'you can't have real hi-fi without 2ooo dollar interconnects'. please note i am not shouting i have learned my lesson.
macrojack: well said |
Map: Rock on, dude. It'd be nice if some wealthy soul endowed a research institute to address the mysteries of sound reproduction...but I'm not holding my breath.
They Call Me Tater Salad: I wish Brooks well, whatever the reason for his expansion. He's been a mainstay of the biz for a generation.
Spring: Not quite sure what you're getting at--but interesting, nonetheless.
Rok: Yup, price matters. Can't argue with that. Appreciate the lower case; sorry to rag you!
Thanks to all for your comments. It'll be interesting to see what you have to say when we get into our discussion of the industry's future. |
Mankind/Music go back a ways.
Not too long ago several Roman patrons sat discussing whether clients or freeman made the best musicians. Everybody already conceded that the end was near though as the wars needed to many conscripts, and the days of audiophile patrons who could afford a Hydraulusor or Sambuca were numbered.
The exuberance of audiophiles allow their enjoyment to endure. Making money off them might prove tricky at times. |
Springnr has brought a question to my mind and perhaps each of us should ask himself the answer. When I respond to the question posed in the title of this thread, am I addressing the high end hobby at my house or the overall health of the high end audio business model?
I'll go first. The hobby at my house has lapsed to a great extent in recent years but still gets daily use. I still enjoy my system but I haven't had the motivation to pursue perpetual improvement. Some of the reason for this is the difficulty that can arise from trying to resell. It makes me more cautious about acquisition in the first place. Likewise, I feel I have reached a level of sophistication in my system where improvement would require a much larger outlay than I am willing to commit. So I say, good enough is good enough.
Concerning the high end audio business, I can only say that we got what we asked for. I buy used on the internet, I buy insider deals from friends in the business and I swing a trade here and there. I don't buy in stores and I found that I always lost money buying factory direct. No one will pay me as much for my used piece as they can buy a new one for, naturally. Notice that I don't buy anything from stores. They made their bed long ago as far as I'm concerned. They told me over and over again in no uncertain terms that I needed them more than they needed me. I got the message. Too many times I was treated like a know nothing by a know too little intellectual shrimp who thought that he was an expert by dint of having been hired. The arrogance and ignorance factors disqualified retail dealers for me back when I subscribed to Audio Mart. How long ago was that?
So, as far as I'm concerned, we did this to ourselves by creating an adversarial environment and pretending it was the gentlemen's club.
Greed and opportunism have been basic to this hobby from the outset in the late 1970s In the 80s the prices climbed, the margins stayed intact, and the entrepreneurs noticed. Soon the sizzle took over and the steak was stolen. Now that the dizzy pursuit has paused due to money shortages, we are bemoaning the collapse of a house of cards.
They were bound to come down though the first time the boat rocked.
The desperation of high end audio has no effect on my life whatsoever and the guys who chased me out of those stores back when have long since moved on to selling cemetery plots, life insurance or used trucks.
So there you have it. High end audio will survive but the sharks will likely be starved out of it. |
Spring: That's an interesting take on the situation. I can't decide if it's optimistic or pessimistic!
Mac: If I hadn't heard a zillion stories just like yours, I'd be tempted to think you were a disgruntled crackpot. It saddens me that so many have been turned off by rude, patronizing, condescending or otherwise nasty dealers. It further saddens me that many think all dealers are that way. As I've said repeatedly, good dealers are irreplaceable. As we've seen, bad dealers are readily replaceable.
Thanks to you both for your provocative comments. |
Bill - When I was a kid there were exotic car dealers, Ferrari, etc., here and there in unlikely small towns. Eventually, as the economics changed and common folk became excluded from participation, such dealerships became limited to concentrated and/or wealthy locations. Now the exist in only a few of our largest cities.
Something similar is happening in audio. I read about audiophiles all the time who lament the fact that there are no dealers at all near where they live. Others complain that the inventories are just too limited if they do have a store within a fur piece of home. I see this situation worsening.
I also think that is why the audio shows like RMAF are popular. Not only is it like Sturgis for audiophiles, it is also the best opportunity most of us are going to get all year to see a wide selection in one place. It doesn't hurt either that the vendors are friendly and welcoming to all. Throw in some beer and you're looking at audio's best hope of pulling through. The dealers are not irreplaceable in my mind. I replaced them back when Carter was President. |
one other factor: with the exception of classical music, what music is there worth spending a fortune on gear to hear. Other than classical music, all the CDs i buy are by artist long dead or disbanded. what we have is a perfect storm. everything is coming together to kill so-called high-end audio. in the auto industry FIAT and VW bailed out the fancy super car makers because they had the money. maybe we should sthrow our support to the 'mid-fi' people so they can save us all. Hold your noses and buy that Harman kardon!! lol |
a manufacturer with one or two employees, who stocks no inventory and fills orders as they occur, and who has another source of income can remain viable indefinitely. |
I think all this started with the popular acceptance of home theater. It was at that point that the emphasis shifted from music to sound effects. Little thumpy subs and cacaphonic mixes steered us away from real music. |
Mac: I remember visiting a few of those car dealers in the middle of nowhere. They were patient and kind to a car-crazy teen, just as the audio dealers gave me access to gear I could never afford. I'm afraid those days are largely gone: hard to imagine a 19-year-old being allowed to test-drive a 911 these days.
I think regional shows and roadshows are vital to the future of audio in whatever form it might ultimately take. However, I have a hard time imagining enough direct sales taking place at them to obviate the need for dealers, for most manufacturers.
Rok: I think every generation says that the younger generation's music stinks, but I hear what you're saying. I wouldn't hold my breath about the big manufacturers bailing out the tweak guys; nice thought, though!
Mr.: Perhaps they can remain "active" indefinitely, but I think "viable" might be stretching it.
Mac, again: For quite a few years HT helped dealers survive while 2-channel audio was in decline. Not sure "cacaphonic" is a word, but if it's not, it should be!
Thanks for the comments, guys. |
Home theater is why 2 channel was in decline.
Audiophiles are like pipe smokers in that a few still exist and ever so infrequently someone young comes along and enlists himself. Both have to be realistically viewed as dying breeds however. |
Mr Manners: you misunderstood me I didn't mean that older people were not into current pop music.... I meant young people don't think it's very good either .... on the typical cd, at best you get one or maybe two decent songs and a lot of filler for $20 .... that's why they cherry pick songs to download online. I can remeber the time when most cuts on an lp were very good. my point was addressing why younger people are not investing in high end audio gear. |
Mac: I'd have to say that 2-channel was in decline before the arrival of HT, not due to it. HT revived a lot of dealerships, which subsequently declined when the expense of custom HT could no longer be folded into home equity lines following the crash.
Rok: Maybe so, but I think 'way back' to the early 60's where albums often had one hit surrounded by filler. There's nothing new under the sun.
Thanks to everyone for their comments on this subject. I hope you will join in the discussion with our next entry on the future of the audio industry,
"What do we do now?" |
