Brian, have you tried contacting ARC? I haven't heard any rumors this year, but I did hear them last year around this time. Pre-CES mental gymnastics as far as I can tell. Obviously last years speculation proved false. I do imagine that one day the Ref 3 will be replaced, but it is still selling very well, and ARC is finally listening to all the criticism of their chronic upgraditis (mk I, II, II, etc). So my guess is their thinking is now "If it ain't broke, don't fix it".
BTW, I own one, and it is a terrific preamp.
Cheers,
John