Blu-ray has a lot of potential, they haven't even finished hashing out the standards for it, but HD-DVD is pretty much fully available now. A HD-DVD player is a not too different from a standard DVD player. You can pick up a regular DVD player from China in Target for $30 these days. CD was audio only so adding video took a bit more for the manufacturers' leap to DVD. Now with HD-DVD all that is needed to step from a reg. DVDP is a different laser and higher resolution. It isn't anywhere near the leap CDPs to DVDPs was. I remember 15 years ago when DVD players came with free movies too. It was hardly the signal of the end for DVD players. 25 years ago the Chinese CE manufacturing wasn't a force at all. Factor that into how long it took the CD technology to come down in price. I would also take into account that the CD paved the way for acceptance of the silver disc as a media. DVD didn't have to overcome that unknown media hurdle.
Someone somewhere else suggested that if HD-DVD gets down to $150 or less people will be buying them to up-convert all the standard DVDs they already own and can readily rent and they won't care if at $150 it loses the format war. |
Rysa-4, The lower production costs both for players and disks means HD_DVD will win this in the end, and the lack of any international support for Blu Ray to speak of seals the deal. Quite possibly. However my premise (which may indeed be wrong) is that easy low cost technology with less security will result in more piracy and more competion from small studios. Therefore what you say are all major advantages for pirates/small players but not something big American studios are likely to be happy about (as they can't enforce effective piracy protection in many overseas countries and the lower barriers to production allow small independent studios to compete, even if they ship low volumes). The no China licenses you mention for Blu-ray may be part of a strategy to protect the content provider...so cheap is not always desirable...just look at the markup on "cables" in Circuit City and other electronics category retailors... I mentioned that someone has ALREADY hacked HD-DVD about six months ago using a computer...given the China mass manufacuring of HD-DVD's how long will it be before PC owners everwhere can by an HD-DVD burner and burn their own pirated HD-DVD's... |
I remember 15 years ago when DVD players came with free movies too.
That's quite an accomplishment, as the DVD spec wasn't even finalized until Dec. 1995, the DVD Forum didn't form until May 1997. Some early machines may have hit the market around 1996, but disks and players didn't become generally available until 1998 and most players were still $1K and up. :-) I bought my first DVD player in July 2000, and it included 2 or 3 free DVDs. In fact, progressive scan DVD players just began to hit the market around August that year. At that time many video rental stores were just starting to offer DVDs, and it was still a couple years before they pushed VHS off the bulk of the racks. It's hard to believe that the DVD--revolutionary as it was--is being replaced after about 8 years on the market and 4-5 years of market dominance. |
I got my first DVD player direct from American Express in a special order for card members, it was $800 and I believe it was in December of 1997 and nobody had one that I know of so Newbie is off be about 8 yrs.
That same unit could be had today for $50, I am not even sure if it did 480p but I doubt it did, the funny thing was other than the fact it was all on one side it wasnt a huge leap over my Laser Disc player.
I even have a old DVD of "GoodFella's" that has to be flipped over to finish the movie, never could figure out why that disc was like that.
It is too bad that HDDVD is in a struggle because it would appear it is superior and has itself figured out instead of Blueray wich looks like a work in progress. |
blu-ray is a work in progress sounds like a compliment to me because it hasnt reached its potential yet and hd dvd is pretty much as far as it can go... |
blu-ray is a work in progress sounds like a compliment to me because it hasnt reached its potential yet and hd dvd is pretty much as far as it can go... Those of us of a cynical nature tend to see works in progress as frequently ending up as vaporware. I appreciate everyone that chimed in to let me know my time line memory sucks. |
How many hundred dollars is pride of ownership worth? Think I will stick with the D2 as "work in progress" does not instill confidence, at least for me. Less complex may mean less chance of problems. |
HD DVD is cheaper and has more features than blue ray! I feel Sony is on the path of beta all over again! They are greedy and don't sell the best products anymore! There tv's aren't like they used to be either like in the trinaton days! Blue ray is only selling good because of the crapy playstation 3. I like the X-box 360 better and it is cheaper! Even the nintendo wii is way more fun than the playstation 3 and one third the cost! |
Blue ray discs and players are outselling HD
I think Sony may actually win this one
but they didn't do a good job marketing |
Its hard to know at this point. Target, Blockbuster, and Best Buy are lining up with Blu Ray. Walmart and Sams are with HD-DVD, and Netflix and Circuit City are neutral.
Blu Ray hardware is problematic in general and hasnt incorporated ethernet connectivity, unline HD-DVD players which have. Waterdowned PS3 dont have enough memory in the hard drive to truely pull off Blu Ray DVDs with interactive features. Blu Ray has the studio output in the US 90% vs 60% of all titles released. European and Asian studios largely produce HD-DVD disks but not blu ray.
In the end, I * think* HD-DVD will come ut on top due to its lower cost structure. But its going to be long and ugly it seems. Sony marketing is excellent actually I find. The equipment however, lags HD-DVD players in general, and changes are causing early obsolescence for early Blu Ray adopters ( poor folks). |
Walmart and Sams are with HD-DVD, My local Sam's Club carries both the Toshiba HD-D2 HD DVD player and the entry-level Sony Blu-ray. They also carry movie titles in both formats. |
The battle lines are drawn. Hollywood bug studios team up with Sony, "the "Corporate" bad guys, and arm themselves with Ratatouille, POTC3 and Blade Runner Xmas Blu-ray releases. Meanwhile Jason Bourne with Sam and Walmart must find a way to fight back with their "Bourne Ultimatum" which also releases at Xmas.
It will be interesting to see if Bourne can find a way to win the format battle, against all odds! |
I taught Toshiba people in an executive program about a month ago. They worried about HD DVD losing grounds to Blu-ray. I live in Asia and increase in sales of high resolution formats has been even slower than that of US market.
The real battle ground is in the US and what is happening in Asia and Europe won't decide the eventual winner.
Although I think HD DVD is better executed technology at the moment (by small margin), my prediction is that Blu-ray will eventually win the battle.
The prediction is based on the fact that major electronics companies such as Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, and Pioneer are backing Blu-ray. This gives huge advantage in displays at electronics stores such as Best Buy. Also, Blu-ray has more exclusive titles than HD DVD.
HD DVD's advantage is low production cost of hardware and software. This advantage is reflected in low cost of HD DVD players. If Blu-ray camp reduces the cost of Blu-ray players in line with HD DVD players, this advantage will go away. I am a little surprised that Sony and other companies have not done this so far. |
I admit to being startled that Hitachi is launching the first two Blu-ray camcorders this fall. I remember when Sony was the king of the camcorder, and I'm surprised that they weren't first to market with a Blu-ray Handycam. |
08-08-07: Leedistad
I admit to being startled that Hitachi is launching the first two Blu-ray camcorders this fall. I remember when Sony was the king of the camcorder, and I'm surprised that they weren't first to market with a Blu-ray Handycam.
Maybe, with the crash'n'burn of Beta in the marketplace, Sony finally realized that they'll do better in the long run if they're less greedy with the hardware technology and license it to multiple vendors to establish Blu-ray as the de facto standard. Whereas Sony didn't license Beta to anyone until it was too late, Blu-ray machines are made by Philips, Samsung, Pioneer, Hitachi, Panasonic, LG, Sharp, Lite-On, and Mitsubishi. To my knowledge, Toshiba's the only one making home theater standalone HD DVD players, though there are different vendors for HD DVD drives for computers and X-boxes, and I suppose you could give a half-manufacturing credit to LG as well. Sony finally realizes that they want as many Blu-ray machines out there as possible, regardless of manufacture, because they hold the rights to a huge market share of the software--everything from Sony Pictures, Columbia (and Tri-Star), most of MGM, and a lot of United Artists. |
I think you're right, Johnnyb53. It just strikes me as odd that Sony would not extend themselves to be first to market with a Blu-ray camcorder. You could argue that they're letting Hitachi test the waters of the market, but there's something to be said for the bragging rights that come from debuting an industry "first" and the Sony of old would have gone after that. I had some bloggery about this, as you can imagineAs it stands, I don't have a clear picture of which way the wind is blowing, but my sense is that the teeter totter is tipping in Blu-ray's favor overall. But who knows? |
Well a few comments. Asia and Europe are very important. If you all have followed the news lately, Blu ray is under investigation by a European Commission regarding their marketing techniques( ie bribery; pressure tactics) as European movie studios are adopting HD_DVD over Blu Ray for Hi Def movies due to more than one factor. The rest of the world just doesnt through money and influence around like SOny and it is causing very strong resentment.
The reason why Sony doesnt reduce pricing further is they can't do so very easily, as they lose money as it is every time a PS3 is sold. Huge losses that, frankly, are not sustainable.
As far as Walmart and Sams--yes they carry both for now--but HD-DVD has been licensed to Chinese manufacturers and 199 players for HD-DVD will arrive in time for Christmas it seems. Becuase of the mounting losses for Blu Ray and Sony- HD-DVD only needs a stalemate to win, not a victory.
As Hi Def DVD adoption rate increases ( its miniscule now) eventually everyone is gonna have to make movies in both formats in the US as far as Major Studios. Right now, Standard Def DVDs still rule, ad they are quite acceptable to most folks ( me included, although the 1080P stuff is quite incredible if you have the FP, display and player).
It is gonna be a long one, but since HD_DVD can sell players and Titles at lower pricepoints without sustaining the same level losses as Blu Ray, they should win out.
Also, Blu Ray machines need a lot of memory to do those interactive features as well as an ethernet connection. The players dont have it right now, Tosh stuff does, and as those differences come to mean something, it will only widen the gap in offereings or price or both. |
And HD DVD is already putting out DVD/HD DVD dual-layer disks, so they're already up on the curve where a single SKU-per-title is concerned.
Still...the difference in studio support in the US (Sony/Comumbia/MGM/UA/Disney/Fox/Warner/Paramount for Blu-ray vs. Universal/Warner/Paramount for HD DVD), and the difference in the number of player manufacturers per format (also in favor of Blu-ray) is pretty intimidating. |
My only comment is that all of those companies are competing with each other. I do think that cheap chinese HD-DVD players coming out this fall ( which the AP confirmed last week) seals the deal, because you get a greater bandwidth of buyers. Right now, the masses are locked out because Blu Ray players are all at a higher price point.
If the total volume of hi def titles goes up as far as sales, at some point all studios must follow suit just to go after the sales. Right now, the numbers of Hi Def disks sold is just too small to be significant. |
With over 250k discs sold of the movie 300 in the first week not counting Wallmart ect sales as well as many reported shortages of the Blu-ray version, and 163k of these being on Blu-ray, its plain to see were this is headed with exclusive titles like Spiderman 1/2/3, Pirates of the Carribean 3, National Treasure, Closec Encounters, Ratatouille, Cars, Pixar Shorts, Kill Bill 1/2 and Pulp Fiction ect ect coming out for the holiday season as Blu-ray exclusive.
The first year best sales for dvd in a week was 100k so Blu-ray has already beat that despite 300 being a dual release in this so called war.
I believe that the Holiday software sales percentages will be very telling and expect Blu-ray to take 80-90% of the sales between their exclusives, and all dual format releases which will be at least a 2-1 advatage for Blu-ray in disc sales.
Seeings how this is first and foremost an audio board,its very interesting that Blu-ray has HD audio as in uncompressed PCM, DD-THD or DTS-MA on over 90% of its format specific releases and hd dvd has less than 10% of its format specific releases with actual HD audio.
When Warner releases the 18 or so titles on Blu-ray that they have been putting off for picture in picture interactivity, hd dvd will have less than 5% of its format specific releases with actual HD audio.
Which is something most here would have a real use for with all the higher end speakers and gear. |
Ears, I'm with you - I bought a Blu-ray player a couple of months - not because I think Blu-Ray is better but because there is more of the new stuff that I want....although I do regret not having Jason Bourne's Ultimatum.., |
Rysa, do you have a link to an actual official announcement of Chinese hd dvd players?
This was an internet rumour and picked up by everyone and there brother and posted as fact on blogs and sites acrossed the net.
Wallmart as well as the rumoured Chinese company both denied there was ever a deal or contract.
From what I have read, any Chinese players are not actual hd dvd players but some lessor form of HD player that will be sold only in China.
Blu-ray however does have cheap players coming from Funai and gowell that are contractual.
Funai makes some of the Denon and other brand players.
At any rate, the local Wallmarts have not had HD DVD players since last August but have had the Philips and now the 450.00 Sony player in store.
Target is only selling the Sony player in stores during the upcoming Holidays with a special Blu-ray end cap displaying mostly Disney Blu-rays.
Its interesting to note that neither Target or Costco now have an hd dvd player for sale online but both have BD players.
Its also interesting that BD disc sales are in the lead everywhere on the planet where the formats are sold. |
Shadorne, content is and always will be king IMO,and all that HD audio on Blu-ray exclusives from Sony, Disney, Fox and MGM doesn't hurt either. |
The Associated Press reported the Chinese HD-DVD confirmation on fall release at $199 in several newspapers last week. Its not very far away.
The Majority of Blu Ray players unfortunately dont come with the technical specifications needed to utilize many of Hi Def DVD capabilities. I am not aware that any have ethernet connectivity, needed for the interactive feature aspects. Also, as the format has itself changed, early Blu Ray player buyers are already obsolete.
The actual title sales are about even worldwide, and that total is less than 1% of total DVD sales. All HD-DVD has to do is continue to exist, and as the total volume percentage of Hi Def DVDs increases relative to standard plus Hi Def SAles, all studios will have to release in both formats or lose a lot of money, as more and more people purchase 1080P displays and want Hi Def DVDs.
AS far as the codec used by the chinese players, it certainly isnt inferior; it was codesigned with Toshiba to handle certain copyright issues frankly and will play HD-DVDs perfectly, by report.
Blu Ray and Sony are facing problems with the European Commission due to "marketing technique" issues and European studios arent supporting Blu Ray at this time for the most part.
Current Blu Ray losses are mounting although obviously Sony and Co have a lot of resources. Eventually non-sustainable and the production costs and needed memory and processing capabilities are so high on the Blu Ray Side that in the end, its just not a competitive format, only being propped up by a lot of Sony Marketing and false advertising. And a lot of dollars!! |
"Its interesting to note that neither Target or Costco now have an hd dvd player for sale online but both have BD players." You might want to double check availablity at Costco on-line. |
Untill the general public cares about either of these formats the arguements are mute, as of now it doesnt look like people really care about taking on another format.
Now if there are cheap players and movie clubs gave away a player with a purchase contract...say 10 in 3 years or whatever then maybe something would fly. |
Newbie 13, a few days after Target announced that the Sony s-300 Blu-ray player was the only stand alone that would be sold in their store this Holiday season, and for a week straight neither had them available online.
Maybe they were waiting on the new model players.
Rysa, so there is still nothing official, just more of the same rumour started on AVS being re-hashed by the A/P this time.
Blu-ray players from Funai and Gowell are officially coming though.
I see you telling members that the PS3 is not being bought as a BD player but how do you explain that hd dvd was ahead in sales in Europe until this spring when after 1 week of PS3 sales, Blu-ray software was responsible for 87% of all HD software sales?
Also, how do you explain that ever since the PS3 was readily availble on U.S. store shelves in January, that Blu-ray has out sold hd dvd at least 2-1 and up to 3-1 every single week in the nielson ratings?
Even when there were new hd dvd releases and no new Blu-ray releases, it remained 2-1 that week.
Anyone interested in finding fact from fiction can look at the Nielsen ratings for this entire year and keep looking because those numbers are going to be getting worse by the week for hd dvd, all the way through the Holidays. |
The Associated Press confirmed the Chinese HD-DVD player release at 199.99 for this fall; that's where all of the codec info came from as well.
Without an ethernet connection currrent Blu Ray players are going to be obsolete. The Toshiba players allow for online updating of software ( which is very cool) as well as use for online interactive features in the future. The HD-DVD players of course upscale standard DVDs wonderfully as well.
The memory requirements and processing power needed to make Blu Rays less efficient software writing means either a very expensive player or some lessor performance characteristics as far as speed of loading as well as interactive features.
I don't disagree that the "format war" won't go on for awhile for sure; and I don't know if either format will truely win as well.
I would stay away from Blu Ray players for now though- they will improve in a way that will make current ones obsolete very quickly. As has already happened. |
Oh yea- alomost forgot, the writer of the Associated Press Article is Gary Gentile and it came out August 10th 2007. He writes out of Los Angeles but I saw the article on a Nashville News Affiliate website. The article is not totally focused on China by any means; but it does clearly state that HD-DVD players made in China are expected to be released for 199.99 in December. |
Sorry Rysa,expected to be released, is the same old rumour spun once again with zero official backup.
You say hd dvd players are more powerful, but nothing could be farther from the truth.
Upcoming releases of Face Off and Blades of Glory in both formats have uncompressed PCM on the Blu-ray version and only core dd plus on the hd dvd version.
The Blu-ray version is also cheaper in both cases.
The PS3 remains far more powerful than any exsisting hd dvd players with plenty of power to spare.
I owned two hd dvd players and three BD players, and all the BD players were quicker at any function.
An hd dvd version of a movie can be ported to a BD version with additional HD audio lacking on the hd dvd version added.
The reason is not just the extra GB available on the BD version but mostly the extra bandwidth.
A Blu-ray version could never be ported to hd dvd because of both the 30gb limit, and mostly because it lacks the bandwidth of Blu-ray....ie there not powerful enough.
All Blu-ray players except the Philips and original Samsung play 1080p/24 which is something lacking on every hd dvd player.
Lets also not forget that Toshiba is really the only CE making hd dvd players compared to Panasonic, Pioneer Elite, Samsung, Sony, Philips, LG,and the announced Denons with their stand alone and Blu-ray transport arriving this fall.
Yes the future players will be able to do picture in picture but how many really even use that feature on their tv's, let alone during an HD movie?
What early adopters want first and foremost is 1080p/24 and actual HD audio as well as studio support, with picture in picture taking a very distant last place.
With Weinstein going neutral, this leaves only Universal or around 12% of current studio releases not available on Blu-ray yet.
Now whats more likely, Sony, Disney, MGM, Fox and Disney going neutral with Blu-ray outselling hd dvd everywhere in the world, or Universal going neutral?
And lets not forget that even though some hardcore early adopters reccomend boiling the hd dvd combos when they have playback problems, that the average consumer will be bringing his player and movies back to the store and certainly will not be boiling problem combo discs.
From experience and also from what I read all over the net, Blu-ray is ready now for average consumers with the exception of player prices needing to be under 99.00.
HD DVD is definitely not ready for average consumers at this point IMO. |
There are pictures of one of the Chinese HD-DVD players now available. If you think about it, of course less expensive HD-DVD players are just around the corner. Obviously there is no blu ray answer on the hardware side. There never has been. Thats why I would stay away from Blu Ray for now.
Blu Ray hardware is simply lacking and faces early obsolescence. The DVD video quality is excellent on both Medias. Costco is selling HD-DVD players, and the entry level model is on sale online for 249. HD-DVD , if you had to pick one now, is the way to go, due to ethernet connectivity, upscaling, and ability to play standard DVDs.
I wouldnt be accepting any substitutes for now. Blu Ray marketing got ahead of the product. |
OK this does not make me happy with the Toshiba HD DVD player I bought. About 5-6 weeks after sending coupon and bar code p-o-p for the 5 free HD DVDs, I received a notice stating stocking problems that will postpone my DVDs a few more weeks. This is not the part that pisses me off. Heres the kicker: They graciously included a form I can send in that "cancels my order" (for free DVDs!) if am annoyed by the added wait.
Im very satisfied with the D2 player, but 5 free HD DVDs was a real incentive to purchase. This delay and offer to decline the free DVDs sounds so incredibly BOGUS, I find it insulting. Not a smooth move for HD DVD format or for Toshiba. |
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Well, looking at overall titles before this change, 90% would be released on Blu Ray and 60% on HD-DVD from American Studios. European studios were in HD-DVDs favor technically.
With this change I actually think its slightly in HD-DVDs favor as far as total titles and American studio support. Pretty major stuff really, in the minor world of Hi Def DVDs. |
08-21-07: Rysa4
Pretty major stuff really, in the minor world of Hi Def DVDs.
That's just it, isn't it? I've still got a nagging suspicion that this is a tempest in a tea cup, and this particular format war will end up with NO winners. |
Many people, myself included, have older HD monitors that have neither HDMI nor DVI inputs. People with 720p or 1080i displays, by far the majority I would guess, have also been dealt out of the high definition game. Is there any reason why people in this situation should even consider purchasing an HD or Blu-ray player? This situation is not unlike SACD vs DVD-A. Leedistad is probably right: there won't be any winners, but the sure losers are the early adopters in any format war. Corporate greed is likely to sink all the boats in the harbor. If high-speed, high-resolution downloads to a hard drive ever become feasible, and if the selection of HD films ever expands so that it rivals the vast number of titles available on DVD, the game will have ended. The studios have the content, and they will dictate the outcome. |
Actually, believe it or not, 720P displays are being slowly replaced across all technologies by 1920 x 1080 displays with HDMI 1.3 connectivity as the standard. So in that sense, a Hi Def PLayer makes sense, particularly if it can upscale and play regular current DVDs. |
Just to update, it looks like there are going to be 9 or 10 HD-DVD player manufacturers on board in time for Christmas, with sub 200 dollar HD-DVD players. The pictures of these various units are now everywhere. Names like Onkyo, Intgera, and Magnavox as well as some newer ones. In ddition, Alpine went HD-DVD for Car Video ( quite the industry I understand) there is also a portable HD-DVD manufacturer as well, which is pretty cool too. Probably ubiquitous Hd-DVD drives for computers in the near future ( besides Microsoft).
This, inconcewrt with the now slight lead HD-DVD has in movie studios among the top 100 releases for movies this year, makes HD-DVD the current format of choice it seems. |
I'm writing this from the Denver Airport on my way back from CEDIA Expo. I saw a LOT of Blu-ray and HD-DVD demos in the last week. Much like last year, they alternated between breathtakingly good looking, and "meh."
Just like DVD (or any other format) what was goin on in the mastering process has a profound impact on the final image on screen, no matter how good your player or how fastidiously you've calibrated your display. |
Rysa4, As I stated much earlier in this thread, content will likely be the deciding factor. It appears that the HD-DVD camp agrees with me as they paid $150 Million in order to get two studios to go exclusive for 18 months with HD-DVD. The data indeed shows HD-DVD is no longer losing as badly as before eProduct WarsCheap is not everything...why is Dell doing so badly if cheap is the way to go? Why did Apple iPod do so well - given it was far from cheapest on the market? I continue to think content will dominate consumers choices, after all this is why you buy a player.....to watch a movie! I agree with you that the content playing field is much more evenly matched then it was previously and it is starting to show in the sales. It may indeed give HD-DVD enough of an edge ( this last move certainly seemed like desperation on the part of the HD-DVD camp) but I also doubt this is the last move we have seen in this battle....if the data shows BD losing its lead then I expect they will respond to. |
HD bought their way to two studios because they nearly lost the format war this year
I have a ps3 and am considering a cheap HD player and a good BLue Ray player (samsung 2400 comes out soon)
then I can have the best of both world with no 'one box does it all' compromised setup |
Well thanks for your post. I think we agree on most things. Blu Ray isnt going away anytime soon obviously. And sure there will be punches flying in both directions in one form or another to be sure.
The thing about 150 million though- thats more myth than reality. Nobody is saying that anyone specific paid anything--in other words, nobody is saying we paid this much money. Toshiba doesnt have 150 million dollars to pay a studio with as an FYI.
I do know its cheaper for astudio to get HD-DVD mdae than Blu ray discs, and thats better for everyone in the end.
I agree content is important, but in an even playing field which we now have, production and hardware costs will win out--its just that way. |
The thing about 150 million though- thats more myth than reality. Nobody is saying that anyone specific paid anything--in other words, nobody is saying we paid this much money. Toshiba doesnt have 150 million dollars to pay a studio with as an FYI. While, I agree that the $150 million came out of the Blu-ray PR dept and has been denied by Microsoft, and MS involvement has been withdrawn by the press, and unsubstantiated in regards to Toshiba. I disagree that Toshiba doesn't have the money. Toshiba has a lot of intellectual properties in DVD and it is estimated that those royalties are worth a billion dollars a year. |
Newsday and the LA Times are now reporting a big check was written to Target for their Blu-ray deal. They are also reporting a bidding war for Warner Bros. to go exclusive. Retailers also have contributed to the recent jockeying. Target Corp., the nation's second-largest retailer, announced in July that it would sell only Blu-ray players. Its decision followed a bidding war in which Sony and three studio partners reportedly paid Target what one rival described as a "jaw-dropping" sum for prominent display of its hardware at the end of sales aisles. It will continue to sell the HD DVD drive for Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 game console and HD DVD movies. Newsday link |
