Why China Isnt Happening Yet


I have found it interesting to read about Chinese tube amps for a fraction of the price of US, how China is taking over the world etc.

A colleague of mine in the trading and investment business is actually thinking that the prosperity of the US is over forever, Medicaid/Medicare and our pension system are bankrupt, interest rates are going up, the housing market is going to collapse and one day Americans will figure out that there is more than one currency in the world.

At that point, the US will experience flight capital for the first time, and then we are really in big trouble.

Now some of this worries me, but I thought is was interesting that of the 6 or so, bargain priced, obviously knocked off in China, toys that were given to my baby boy for Christmas....

NONE of them worked properly?!?!

The robot? He wouldnt wind up, didnt walk, and sparks failed to fly from his mask.

The magic sliding coin tray? Also didnt work, and was so cheesily made that the mechanism was obvious.

Radio controlled car? Had a range of about 10 feet -- no fun at all.

Now none of this excuses the problems we may have here in America, but FYI I am less likely to buy a tube amp from China in the New Year.

Cheers.

cwlondon
cwlondon

Showing 1 response by cics

CW,
Being outside of the US, the concern shared by many economists is over ever increasing US household debt rather than:
- pension schemes (as defined contribution has effectively moved the risk from employer to employee), and
- medical aid (as innovative products are providing some solutions).
This debt is not gravity defying and at some point in time, could trigger some economic nasties...

Both China and India will have larger economies than the US and probably sooner than 2035! Being the 3rd largest world economy is not a bad thing its just basic maths that Chindia will be bigger. The good news is that this growth alleviates poverty and lifts living standards the world over.

The US challenge is to benefit from these events and so far, it seems to be going in the wrong direction (especially post 911). Consider the fact that a weaker dollar has not feuled US exports and instead, it continues to be a net importer. US politicians are demanding revaluations of the Chinese currency to achieve some sort of trade balance. These are temporary solutions. Permanent solutions are needed.

As Chindias domestic economies gain momentum its reliance on US exports becomes less important. Where does this leave the US?

The world needs a strong healthy US economy. I'm worried.