Kijanki -- Good questions.
I don't want to get into non-electronic things, because I'm not particularly knowledgeable about them.
But consider a transistor or integrated circuit. Envision a plot of failure rate vs. component age, based on the assumption that it is being operated within its specifications (not always the case). A plot of failure rate vs. age will start out at some relatively high value (infant mortality), which in turn will depend on the degree of screening, burn-in, quality control, etc. (which is better for military gear than for consumer gear -- one reason consumer gear is so much cheaper). The curve will then go down to a lower level following the infancy period, and remain relatively constant until old age, when it will rise considerably.
What is most relevant to the questions we have been discussing is the middle period, where the failure rate is lowest, and is fairly constant over a considerable number of years (as you have pointed out). If we consider only that period, where the failure rate is essentially constant, then yes, if that failure rate at that point on the age curve is, say one failure per 100 years, and we have 100 components of that type, then we can expect one of those components to fail each year, on average. One set of 100 components may do better than average, and last 5 years without a single failure. Another set of 100 components may do worse than average, and have a failure within a month. But averaged across a large number of sets of 100 components, there will be 1 failure per year per set, based on the assumptions of constant linear failure rate, mtbf of 100 years, and 100 components.
If the failure rate vs. age curve is not linear and constant, such as during infancy and old age, the analysis is more complex. And as I indicated earlier, calculation of system mtbf has to take into account and properly weight the mtbf's of the different types of components, as well as their relative quantities in the system.
Hope that clarifies things more than it confuses them!
Regards,
-- Al
I don't want to get into non-electronic things, because I'm not particularly knowledgeable about them.
But consider a transistor or integrated circuit. Envision a plot of failure rate vs. component age, based on the assumption that it is being operated within its specifications (not always the case). A plot of failure rate vs. age will start out at some relatively high value (infant mortality), which in turn will depend on the degree of screening, burn-in, quality control, etc. (which is better for military gear than for consumer gear -- one reason consumer gear is so much cheaper). The curve will then go down to a lower level following the infancy period, and remain relatively constant until old age, when it will rise considerably.
What is most relevant to the questions we have been discussing is the middle period, where the failure rate is lowest, and is fairly constant over a considerable number of years (as you have pointed out). If we consider only that period, where the failure rate is essentially constant, then yes, if that failure rate at that point on the age curve is, say one failure per 100 years, and we have 100 components of that type, then we can expect one of those components to fail each year, on average. One set of 100 components may do better than average, and last 5 years without a single failure. Another set of 100 components may do worse than average, and have a failure within a month. But averaged across a large number of sets of 100 components, there will be 1 failure per year per set, based on the assumptions of constant linear failure rate, mtbf of 100 years, and 100 components.
If the failure rate vs. age curve is not linear and constant, such as during infancy and old age, the analysis is more complex. And as I indicated earlier, calculation of system mtbf has to take into account and properly weight the mtbf's of the different types of components, as well as their relative quantities in the system.
Hope that clarifies things more than it confuses them!
Regards,
-- Al