Is SACD winning over DVD-A?

In my opinion there are two key issues that have to be handled cleverly. This is from examining the tipping points that caused winners to emerge in past standards battles. The first is that the winner will need to use catalogue very cunningly to drive people to the new format. I tend to agree that Sony/Phillips have a better understanding of this issue and importantly a better ability to coordinate how they carry out such a strategy than a consortium of competitors. The second is that any new standard has to offer some kind of "gadget" value or convenience value, if it is not offering lower cost. Since there is very little to be seen in cost or convenience in the new standards then the key issue is "gadget" value. Since it is just another electronics box then I think they have already identified the only available "gadget" value which is surround sound and leveraging the investment that many already have in surround sound systems. That is a level playing field between the competing standards so no obvious winner from that angle.

Looking at what is distinctively different between the two technologies, the only thing significant is the backward compatibility of dual layer SACDs. This will be an advantage for SACD, but I think it will be small, and not compelling.

Therefore I conclude it is the clever use of catalogue that will probably be pivotal. The next question is what market will be pivotal. Perhaps it will be the Japanese market, and so I suspect we should be watching for Sony to begin some big bets in that market that are leveraged off mass popularity content that they own.