Death Knell for cd's?

I'll get mine at the used CD store when all the suckers rush to sell them off :)

You're comparing apples and oranges. Streaming can be used with any resolution, from 96 kbps MP3s to 24/192 PCM to DSD. And yes, it can work for video as well.

Streaming may eventually replace prerecorded disk-based media, though I think 5 years is optimistic. There will continue to be a demand for disks from us boomers who haven't grown up downloading music. And the bandwidth isn't there to serve up all that content to everyone who wants it yet.

But I'd like to see this article. Could you post a link?

I never believe crap like that when they report it.

think of it, how many people have DSL or high speed internet access? There are alot of people with it, but alot of people dont. I dont, none of my friends do, my brother does, and maybe one of my uncles does, but of all my friends and family, that aint alot.

My parents live in a well-to-do part of colorado, multi million dollar homes withing walking distance of thier house, and they dont have acces to DSL. They dont expect to have it untill the latter half of 2006.

Its like the gaming community, Xbox and PS2 are working thier butts off on this Xbox Live and Plasystation online stuff. I dont have it, i know alot of people dont have access to high speed internet. Im not going to rush out and get it, and if these systems end up a strictly on-line product like they are planning, they will lose alot of customers. I prefer to play my xbox without the online hoop-la

Cd's will be around for a long while, so will DVD's. Most consumers are more comfortable with buying a product that you can take home and physically posess, not a product that is more along the lines of a concept that requires a certain connection to some network.

Im totally against that entire push.

not to mention, alot of people do the streaming because it is convenient. Tell those same people that they will no longer be able to buy DVD's and will ONLY be able to stream them, and you are gonna get one angry group of consumers, because even they recognise the drop in quality.

Predictions like that sure do get read alot though.

The people in the country who can not only afford the equipment to do so, but also afford the service are not exactly the majority of the consumer market, and in fact, are more of a small niche market.

Unless the quality of the service outpreforms the quality of the hardcopies, and the price of all related equipment plus the service is cheaper than a $150.00 TV, and a $100 player, then it aint happening.

You also have to consider, in denver, with one of the biggest tech centers, home to many massive cable and phone companys, less than 1/2 have access to this stuff. These netorks are expencive to create, and very expencive to maintain, aand with the economy the way it is... the economy better pick up if they want the majorty of consumers to have the capability for it. These networks are just too expencive to create. I work for a major company maintaining thier T1s, T3s, and such, and this company survived the telecom collapse. Spending in the remaining companys is too reserved and the customer base to expand is not enough to justify that type of expanse. There really is not much money in DSL, not for the price of the maintainenance to keep the network running.

not everyone with a dvd player can afford such service, and i think there is a higher chance of having houses built with PLASMA walls that respond to voice command. HAHAHAHAHA

just one of those articals of "Gee, look how in touchw e are with the consumer market, everything is reaching the future, no more hardcopies"

BAH!

Don't hold your breath for discs becoming obsolete anytime soon. Streaming requires a server system of some type; usually with large amounts of media storage. Connection speeds, the quality of the media being streamed, and other factors such as clean power all play a part in the sort of "product" that is delivered. Most streaming is currently delivered to those with DSL or high speed cable modems. That largely leaves out millions of people who simply use a dial up connection. And don't forget about the 40% of the population that has no interest in the internet and don't even have a computer.
Guess these great "predictors" also forgot that people like to enjoy movies and music while traveling and on the road. How do these folks plan to deliver the music of MY CHOICE when I'm driving down the highway???
Bottom line - when it comes to technology - don't believe everything some P.R. weenie says! Enjoy your CDs now - and five years from now.

Please send all of your outdated CDs to me immediately! I will make sure that they are disposed of properly, without harm to the environment.

Below is the URL...I just couldn't figure out how to make a clickable link......sorry, but I also pasted the entire article for those that want to read it.

http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34&in=tech&cat=digital_music

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Virtual Delivery Seen as Death to Discs
Tue Sep 2,10:05 PM ET Add Entertainment - Reuters to My Yahoo!


By Jesse Hiestand

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Hollywood will win the war against illegal downloading but the battlefield will be littered with casualties, including the DVD and CD formats as physical means of distributing video and audio, according to a Forrester Research study released Tuesday.



The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way of the vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video revenue shifts to streaming and downloading.

Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file trading, which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999. But it will be due more so to efforts by the studios, cable companies and telcos to finally deliver legitimate alternatives like video-on-demand, Forrester researcher Josh Bernoff said.

"The idea that anyone who has video-on-demand access to any movie they are interested in would get up and go to Blockbuster just doesn't make any sense," Bernoff said. "(The decline) begins with rentals, but eventually I think sales of these pieces of plastic are going to start going away because people will have access to whatever they want right there at their television set."

While consumers with VOD capabilities should grow within five years from 10 million to 35 million, or about a third of all U.S. television households, the association that represents disc makers does not believe that output will slow.

In fact, the Princeton, N.J.-based International Recording Media Assn. estimates that the number of DVDs replicated each year in North America will increase from a current 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion by 2008.

CD replications, though, are forecast by IRMA to fall by 15%-18% in the next five years, about half the rate of decline estimated by Forrester.

"The consensus in the manufacturing business is that there will be a decline, but we don't see as drastic a decline," IRMA president Charles Van Horn said. "We see growth (in video and DVD), and I don't think it will be because there are more pipelines to feed. It will be consumers buying discs."

Analysts also caution that the shift from hard copy to virtual distribution could be more gradual.

"People like walking into the store and seeing the product. It's part of the entertainment," Barrington Research Associates analyst James Goss said. "The studios would be just as happy to sell something in a streamed form or a hard disc form. But once you download it to your computer, you're probably going to burn it onto a CD or DVD, so you'd end up with the same optical storage issues."

The Forrester report lists a number of winners and losers from the expected changes.

Among the beneficiaries are Internet portals (news - web sites) that enable on-demand media services, broadband suppliers such as cable and telcos and the creative community, which would profit from the removal of manufacturing and distribution costs and constraints. AOL Time Warner's decision to sell off its disc manufacturing plants was said to be proof of this trend.

Media conglomerates could be among the losers if they do not have control of emerging means of distribution like VOD, Forrester said. Such retailers as Tower Records and Blockbuster will certainly feel the pain as sales and rentals shrink, though they may be able to sustain business by associating themselves with newer on-demand services. Major retailers including Wal-Mart and Best Buy are expected to survive by shifting CD and DVD floor space to sales of media devices.

The shift could also present several opportunities for companies if they move quickly.

Television companies have about three more years to release shows on DVD. By 2006, it is estimated that negotiations will start to focus on making content available on cable and Internet "basic VOD" tiers.

Movies studios are also urged to press the development of Internet-based alternatives to cable VOD for movies-on-demand.

"On-demand media services have the potential to turn pirate losses into gains even as they break the disc-based shackles that now hold back entertainment," the report concludes.

Hey Muzikat - that is what I have been doing for many months already! Gotta love HDCD, SACD, DVDA, MP3.......

Among some hard-core analog fans, CD was dead at birth.

I buy vinyl at 2-3 bucks a pop (vs. $12-$15 when they were the media of choice) and love it. Can't wait for the next phase of obsolesence to help my budget. Bring it on.

these articals are ALWAYS written by some clown who never bought music or movies anyway....