As we all recognize, cause, effect and correlation can prove elusive.
First, define high end audio. In similar conversations these topics are often left unresolved.
My personal opinion is that each variable is poorly defined. Is the economy good or bad, it depends on where you are on the sliding scale. US population has doubled over the past 60 years, the average top CEO comp over that time in todays dollars has risen from $800k to almost $16 million. Whether its cars, clothing, stereo gear.....things change, manufacturing expertise moves forward and consumer demand evolves.
at the end of the day, if you list something for sale and it doesnt sell, your price is too high. Ive listed alot of stuff over the years and rarely does it take longer than a week to get a deal done but I dont buy nor sell Onkyo so who knows. |
@daveyf
no offense intended but the contention from some that the high end is suffering because there isn’t much for sale on audiogon or better still, because they cant sell their technics or onkyo amp at 75% of retail is not convincing. If you observe economic theory properly, the absence of salable inventory on the used market indicates a robust environment. In the old days of audiogon, the sold items would stay posted for a while which gave everyone an idea of what was happening. Now, unless you are watching closely, an item can be listed and sold and then disappear in 10 minutes.
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@daveyf
Again, to beat the dead horse a little more, I have successfully bought and sold several items this year. Both types of transactions were pretty quick, less than 1 week typically soup to nuts. I've sold some NOS tubes that went quickly for my asking price, several cables, accessories, etc all went for what I considered good prices to fellow Audiogoners both young and old. I sold some speakers that listed new for just north of $20,000 for just north of $10k. They were 3 years old and in excellent condition. I've purchased some gear both here (gently preowned) and from dealers new/demo.
Respectfully, your friend selling cables for 10% of list indicates they are not very well thought of by the audio community at large...new or used. I have a pair of Transparent Gen 5 Reference speaker cables at home and Auditorium 23 speaker cables in my office and the latest Transparent cables would probably sell for 50-60% of list fairly easily and the A23's probably 80% of list. So, if something sold for 10% of list.....they were probably not that good were they? In other words, scarcity and perceived quality drive any commodity's demand and value. You must use a better example than "your nameless friend sold some unnamed cables for 10% of list so therefore the hobby is going to shyte". That is an uncorrelated data point and unfair to the community. The sky isn't falling. |
Guys, I promise I’m not trying to start a debate or an argument, that isn’t me. I merely try to observe measurables. I’m a hobbyist like most here and I’ve done about 20 buy/sell transactions on here this year. All were concluded with fair prices and with a fine velocity.
High end isn’t dying like everyone is saying, its just changing. Audiogon 20 years ago was THE place but today transactions are happening on numerous websites, dealers today have their own websites. Brick and martar stores have had to change to remain relevant (or they close) because so many manufacturers have come on the scene and sell direct to the consumer. Never in the history of the high end has there been more fine gear choices to so many than today. The market is extremely fragmented though.
I see posts on this forum discussing how the high end is dead because a mom and pop store in Fort Wayne has closed. I see posts contemplating the meaning of a pair of $100,000 speakers being introduced as further evidence that the industry is dead. Old stores that are unable or refuse to change will inevitably close. Another distribution channel will emerge and life moves ahead. People consume music differently with each generation but they do still consume. More humans are listening to music today than at any time in human history. Just because they dont listen to an esoteric vinyl pressing in a dedicated music room with 8 foot tall speakers doesn’t mean the high end is dead. Its verifiable that there are more manufacturers of 2 channel tube amps today than in 1950 and thats just 1 example. Choices abound. There are so many exceptional speakers being made today by so many diffrent manufacturers from 1 person companies all the way up in scale. Magico introduces a new $10,000 speaker last month and they are already on backorder. There are more great dacs sold today than 10 years ago....the evidence is out there.
Pricing and availability of used gear is a slippery slope. Personally, data like this must be carefully examined. Just because something is selling at a percentage you find too low doesnt mean an industry is dead, it means the free market is working. Besides, the percentages being tossed around here are relevant if all the data were available. The 10% speaker cable example we would need to know the original list, the actual price your friend paid and the brand and type of cable to truly determine what happened. I know of nothing good that drops 90% in 1 year. The other example of 25% off new gear through a dealer on a piece of gear once would have been viewed by many on this site as excellent news. Maybe it would have been digested by hobbyists as “its about time”. What we know about bricks and mortar shops is that distribution channel typically marked up their products by almost double. When the manufacturer direct sales model emerged that carried with it the potential for the producer to offer something new for almost half price compared to a brick and martar product. Again, that would have been hailed as a triumph for the consumer.
When a new manufacturer comes on the scene with a new product and he/she sells it direct, I don’t see posts like “another nail in the coffin of high end”. Just because the old business model hobbyist or manufacturer doesn’t like the way the new business model hobbyists or manufacturers are doing business doesn’t make the high end market dead, it just makes it different. EVERY industry is in a constant state of change. I will say though that if your audio world was centered around that shop in Fort Wayne, then your perspective is accurate....your high end world is dying. But also at least concede that from your couch in Fort Wayne, you can assemble a complete world class system that will be shipped to your door in a few days with just a few clicks on your computer. That’s actually terrific news for the consumption of music....its accessable to virtually anyone at every price point, new or used.
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@jmcgrogan2
I would concede your points that some dealers use Audiogon today as a fully inflated classifieds listing rather than the clearinghouse for gear we all once experienced here. Much like the starting price in an auto negotiation rather than a congenial swap meet style pricing seen at audio clubs back in the day.
Sometimes I wish I wasn't so analytical. I deal with data. My entire career has been trying to separate real facts from human perceptions in order to accurately predict consumer behavior. When I hear a group of 60 year olds discussing the gradual demise of Howard Johnsons, Steak & Ale and today the decline of Applebees or TGI Fridays I just chuckle. I close my eyes and think of an industry that once sold convenience and time rather than food and nourishment like the consumer base believed at the time. Home meal replacement was a long trend that has reversed radically in that space. The same goes for the IT industry. Anyone remember Compaq, Sperry, DEC? Every kid in a Starbucks carries more computing power in their smartphone than utilized to put a man on the moon. In electronics...the list goes forever, Fisher, Marantz, Bozak, McIntosh, Klipsch and GE all were dominant players is audio making well though of products.....only McIntosh and Klipsch have remained relevant and they have done so quite differently.
So, please forgive me when I hear that an industry is dying or suffering that I immediately go into analysis mode. Is the industry dying, changing or being displaced. The answer is absolutely, all three apply and apply every day to every industry. The energy business isn't dying because out of work coal miners say it is, manufacturing isn't dying because someone in one part of the world can manufacture steel more efficiently. Commerce always dictates change, it always has and always will. Technological change has been happening since the the beginning of time, its happening right now.
Does music exist to serve audio equipment or is audio equipment there to serve the music? |
For goods that depreciate very little, I buy new. For items that depreciate rapidly, I buy pre-owned. Simple right? What I think we hear through all of the white noise is that the residual values people once took for granted may no longer apply. Someone could buy a used amp or a pair of speakers, use it for a year and sell it on and remain relatively whole. Thats how alot of people built their systems over the years, they built up equity along the way and were able to build a higher end system. BUT.....
The laws of the free market can’t be suspended forever. I keep seeing in posts that the high end is dying because my cables depreciated....well, thats the way it goes. Additionally, not ALL cables depreciate so rapidly so the logical conclusion must be that those very special cables that you want to replace for some reason may not be so special after all. Compunding this example is if the very special cables you are trying to sell happen to have been discussed frequently on the millions of audio forums present today, the buying public has naturally formed an opinion regarding performance, value and availability/scarcity. Advances happen in product offerings and those advances factor in as well, further depreciating pre-owned pricing. Anyone who is old enough to have a $2,000 Motorola bag phone from 30 years ago in the bottom of a closet understands this.
Its all relative on value though. Many of my co-workers now consider so many items as their birthright that were once thought of as luxuries. When I was first starting out, a new car wasn’t in the cards lete alone a car for every licensed driver. Cable and telephone were luxuries and a choice for your budget. The idea of a $5 cup of coffee or eating out each meal as a daily expenditure seemed science fiction. I also aspired to do better and I never recall feeling resentment when others were prospering disproportionately better than I was. Just because everyone can’t afford whatever they want doesn’t make it unfair but it does create opportunities for all of us to weigh our choices more carefully. I’m thrilled when someone trades in their $120,000 two year old car for $50,000 with only 15,000 miles. I like buying that car rather than the $50,000 new car that so many buy on credit for 72 months. Horses for courses....so back to audio.
We have been spoiled that audio gear typically depreciated quickly at first and then slowly/not at all thereafter. That still applies with really good, high demand equipment....not so much with items that are viewed by the buying public as compromised or commoditized items. How come nobody posts a new thread with the title “ I paid too much for an item several years ago because I assumed it would be worth more when I sell it when something better comes along” or “I’m embarrassed that the buying public doesn’t place a high value on my lousy cables that I’m trying to dump”.
just sayin...
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Thanks to the op for starting this thread, its a great dialogue that will play itself out over time for all of us to review in the future. Succinctly, the following observations may or may not be correlated to the topic. IF HEA is in decline, some of the points are at odds.
1) Some have stated that the prices of new gear is too high while others have stated that the prices of used gear is too low. These blanket statements ignore the Schiit Audio and Linear Tube Audio examples where Schiit gear is selling for sometimes 75% of new prices 5 years later and some LTA gear is selling for close to those numbers. What about Harbeth, their speakers seem to have a strong following in the used market. Schiit and LTA sell direct while Harbeth uses dealers as does McIntosh.
2) Statement pieces from many manufacturers depreciate rapidly in virtually all consumer product categories be it cars, tv’s, smartphones, hea, mountain bikes.
3) The poster who brought up acoustic pianos may be on to something when taken with another poster’s commentary about housing costs. When asked why he was introducing some high performance smallish speakers Dave Wilson answered “because space is expensive”.
4) I would even take that a step further as I work with several 20 and 30 somethings who earn well into six figure incomes. A common thread is they live within their means, drive reasonable autos, live in spaces that meet but don’t exceed their needs, are involved with the activities of their kids, they save money and invest in their future and they don’t don’t typically sit on their bum in front of their tv or stereo for hours. They get out, they are active, they are social, they care about the environment and by extension they monitor energy usage, they are involved in charitable endeavors and they enjoy being in the middle of it all. This is a demographic that would not accept a McMansion in the burbs if you gave it to them.
5) if the old adage of “the only cure for high prices are high prices” holds true on the new end of the market then “the only cure for low prices on the used end of the market would be low prices”. Demand will rise on the used end provided the gear in question meets their above lifestyle choices. That would mean in general, smaller footprints, lighter weights, etc.. My wifes mother was trying to give us a very fine piano and there wasn’t a moment’s hesitation before we said no thanks. Along those same lines, I don’t want any gear I can’t easily move around by myself and moreover, I won’t own a piece of high end gear that can’t be easily shipped to me or on to the next happy owner should my desires change.
In short, buying habits are different today, even among those of us who have been around the hobby a long time. None of the youngsters I work with are willing to overextend or stretch and they learned to be patient over the past 10-15 years while trying to start their careers during the boom-bust-boom economic cycle. HEA isnt dead, its just changing. While the smartphone as the entry level may not meet the standards of many on this this site, it is leaps and bounds better than the boomboxes so many in earlier generations began with.
In summary, look to the manufacturers who are producing products that innovate, carry a reasonable form factor, provide reliability and ease of use and make great music. And dont underestimate form factor, the generation coming into the sweet spot age wise are very mobile, they change jobs alot and move geographically alot. They will load up the Subaru at a moment’s notice and their stuff has to fit!
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@fleschler
Your housing and square footage numbers, while likely numerically correct, may be disproprotionately skewing the data. Using your home as an example which sounds to be in excess of 4,000 square feet, you have to admit most young people don’t own or rent homes in that size. Many highly educated young people relocate to where the jobs are and the better jobs are generally in LA, San Diego, SF Bay area, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, New York, Atlanta, Charlotte....where I live home prices easily exceed $1,000 per sq foot. As far as garages, I see fewer 20 and 30 somethings driving suburbans or 4 door extended cab dually pickups but they are out there, theres no denying that fact. One nice thing though is some older homes were built to hold a 1975 Cadillac so there isnt much built today that wont fit.
I figure the typical home being constructed in the typical town today is probably 2,500-2,750 sq feet. But young people today may not be able to afford the typical new home. The point I was making is that young, budding audiophiles arent likely to allow their audio to intrude into the living space that your generation might have. TVs mount on the wall so thats no issue, one less spot for a velvet Elvis picture! Thats all I was trying to communicate. |
@boband212 @mahgister
Do you believe it is the broad audio industry suffering or more isolated to certain brands? The reason I ask is I am aware of several manufacturers, electronics as well as speakers, having their best year ever in 2021 following a record 2020. |
