The demise of the music CD inevitable?

I have upwards of 4,000 CDs. While I do believe it can offer the best quality playback (yes, 16bit PCM, no practical audible difference with 24bit or DSD) given a high end player, there is definitely a problem that gets little attention in forums and elsewhere on the Internet.

Pinholes.

I do not believe CD longevity is as great as it is typically purported to be. The material(s) itself wears out and often renders portions of the disk inaudible as the reflective layer "evaporates" and the laser is unable to read the data. Virtually no storage and/or handling modification can prevent this.

Back to the format itself, when "critical" listening is required/desired I believe CD playback on a dedicated player is superior and more reliable than streaming or playing digital files via computer software.

Happy to debate the issue as I’m sure my comments will draw the ire of some.

georgelofi, chazro and others, trust me, cds do rot and go bad. However, that said...

- it is a relatively small number percentage wise, and is usually isolated more so to certain brands.

- because you have not noticed it yet after so many years, consider yourselves lucky

- just because there are pinholes, this does not mean the playback device cannot still read and play the disk due to error correction

- if you want more proof positive that there is something wrong with your disks, use exact audio copy. I’m sure most will agree that software is a defacto standard for copying/burning. take a small percentage of your collection and attempt to read using secure mode (not burst mode like normal copying is done). at times errors will be reported.

- many cds have a full label on the reflective side. you cannot see or readily determine the problem. do your inspection on disks that have the metalic coating. and even then use bright light and look carefully.

- cds are essentially cost prohibitive as compared to playing digital files directly. that too diminishes their overall "appeal"

Perhaps this post of mine just reiterates what I have already stated. Nevertheless, for those with CDs 30 years with no sign (as least as you are able to tell) of ROT, keep in mind year 31 could be very different. Granted, nothing last forever.

Regardless, their demise is inevitable for a number of reasons. (My list is with respect to retaining the source flac file on hard disk and playing back directly from their or USB through an audiphile grade DAC). No particular order.
- Cost
- Physical space
- Greater concern for lack of data preservation
- Current CDs can be ripped to disk, relegating the CD to a "backup"
- Redbook standard is limited to 16 bit PCM

rgs92 wrote: I have hundreds of CDs purchased new from 1986 to 1989 (I know because I made a big list in 1990) and with a rare exception they all play and sound just fine. I don’t know where the data or experiments on this idea that CDs wear out is coming from. Maybe if you leave them in a hot car they will have issues, but otherwise they seem to last just fine.
(The slogan back then: perfect sound forever. Has anyone had many of their old discs fail?)

I have. The failure occurs at the location where the reflective layer gets worn away. If that area is very small like a pinhole - which is typically the case - most players will play right through it because of error correction or not play that portion of a second which is nearly inaudible to detect. As I’ve stated previously, if you inspect the disk by eye you may be able to see worn out reflective areas on the disk. And if you use software that rips with utmost integrity like Exact Audio Copy, even if you don’t necessarily see anything wrong, errors can be reported. When/if an already compromised portion of the reflective layer enlarges, eventually it gets to a point that the player completely skips at that point and a great amount of music (data) is gone, or worse the entire disk doesn’t play.

Note that when I use the term "eventually" and other references to time, it is NOT with the expectation that the CD would last "forever". I certainly realize that everything known to mankind perishes at some point. What I mean to convey here is that the time frames initially purported by the CD manufacturers as to their longevity are WAY off. Also I’ve stated previously, and in keeping with the point/title of this thread, the lack of data preservation that I claim herein is with respect to retaining the same data file digitally but NOT burned to a CD. Other storage mechanisms such as a hard disk are WAY more reliable. If the intention is to burn music to a CD on a casual basis and the expectation is such that you can play the CD a few years down the road that’s fine. On the other hand if one is looking to pass the CDs to their grand kids as some kind of meaningful inheritance that would be a mistake.

Not looking to belabor this thread, but these URLs make for interesting reading.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disc_rot

https://www.clir.org/pubs/reports/pub121/sec4.html

Not to go off topic or hijack this thread but with regard to the  LampizatOr interview he also states "... two channel stereo reproduction is kind of endangered species..." .

I highly doubt that two channel will disappear. In my view two channel produces the most faithful reproduction of sound (music) when compared to 5.1, 7.1, 9.1, 22.1 and so on.