How many more years before cd's become passe?


Below is an article celebrating the 25th anniverary of the cd. It also seems to think that the cd may be on its way out as the music medium of choice and that its days are numbered.

Compact Disc celebrates 25th anniversary By TOBY STERLING, Associated Press Writer


It was Aug. 17, 1982, and row upon row of palm-sized plates with a rainbow sheen began rolling off an assembly line near Hanover, Germany.

An engineering marvel at the time, today they are instantly recognizable as Compact Discs, a product that turns 25 years old on Friday — and whose future is increasingly in doubt in an age of iPods and digital downloads.

Those first CDs contained Richard Strauss' Alpine Symphony and would sound equally sharp if played today, says Holland's Royal Philips Electronics NV, which jointly developed the CD with Sony Corp. of Japan.

The recording industry thrived in the 1990s as music fans replaced their aging cassettes and vinyl LPs with compact discs, eventually making CDs the most popular album format.

The CD still accounts for the majority of the music industry's recording revenues, but its sales have been in a freefall since peaking early this decade, in part due to the rise of online file-sharing, but also as consumers spend more of their leisure dollars on other entertainment purchases, such as DVDs and video games.

As the music labels slash wholesale prices and experiment with extras to revive the now-aging format, it's hard to imagine there was ever a day without CDs.

Yet it had been a risky technical endeavor to attempt to bring digital audio to the masses, said Pieter Kramer, the head of the optical research group at Philips' labs in the Netherlands in the 1970s.

"When we started there was nothing in place," he told The Associated Press at Philips' corporate museum in Eindhoven.

The proposed semiconductor chips needed for CD players were to be the most advanced ever used in a consumer product. And the lasers were still on the drawing board when the companies teamed up in 1979.

In 1980, researchers published what became known as the "Red Book" containing the original CD standards, as well as specifying which patents were held by Philips and which by Sony.

Philips had developed the bulk of the disc and laser technology, while Sony contributed the digital encoding that allowed for smooth, error-free playback. Philips still licenses out the Red Book and its later incarnations, notably for the CD-ROM for storing computer software and other data.

The CD's design drew inspiration from vinyl records: Like the grooves on a record, CDs are engraved with a spiral of tiny pits that are scanned by a laser — the equivalent of a record player's needle. The reflected light is encoded into millions of 0s and 1s: a digital file.

Because the pits are covered with plastic and the laser's light doesn't wear them down, the CD never loses sound quality.

Legends abound about how the size of the CD was chosen: Some said it matched a Dutch beer coaster; others believe a famous conductor or Sony executive wanted it just long enough for Beethoven's 9th Symphony.

Kramer said the decision evolved from "long conversations around the table" about which play length made the most sense.

The jump into mass production in Germany was a milestone for the CD, and by 1982 the companies announced their product was ready for market. Both began selling players that fall, though the machines only hit U.S. markets the following spring.

Sony sold the first player in Japan on Oct. 1, with the CBS label supplying Billy Joel's "52nd Street" as its first album.

The CD was a massive hit. Sony sold more players, especially once its "Discman" series was introduced in 1984. But Philips benefited from CD sales, too, thanks to its ownership of Polygram, now part of Vivendi SA's Universal Music Group.

The CD player helped Philips maintain its position as Europe's largest maker of consumer electronics until it was eclipsed by Nokia Corp. in the late 1990s. Licensing royalties sustained the company through bad times.

"The CD was in itself an easy product to market," said Philips' current marketing chief for consumer electronics, Lucas Covers. It wasn't just the sound quality — discs looked like jewelry in comparison to LPs.

By 1986, CD players were outselling record players, and by 1988 CDs outsold records.

"It was a massive turnaround for the whole market," Covers said.

Now, the CD may be seeing the end of its days.

CD sales have fallen sharply to 553 million sold in the United States last year, a 22 percent drop from its 2001 peak of 712 million, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

Napster and later Kazaa and BitTorrent allowed music fans to easily share songs over the Internet, often illegally. More recently, Apple Inc. and other companies began selling legal music downloads, turning the MP3 and other digital audio formats into the medium of choice for many owners of Apple's iPods and other digital players.

"The MP3 and all the little things that the boys and girls have in their pockets ... can replace it, absolutely," said Kramer, the retired engineer.

CDs won't disappear overnight, but its years may be numbered.

Record labels seeking to revive the format have experimented with hybrid CD-DVD combos and packages of traditional CDs with separate DVDs that carry video and multimedia offerings playable on computers.

The efforts have been mixed at best, with some attempts, such as the DualDisc that debuted in 2004, not finding lasting success in the marketplace.

Kramer said it has been satisfying to witness the CD's long run at the top and know he had a small hand in its creation.

"You never know how long a standard will last," he said. "But it was a solid, good standard and still is."

___

Associated Press Business Writer Alex Veiga contributed to this report from Los Angeles.
128x128mitch4t
I just looked at the Naxos site.

Sadly, what they call "CD Quality Sound" is actually 128 kbps. This bit rate isn't even close to CD Quality.
I give it 10 years maybe. Consider that Mp3 and the others out there just don't sound as good. Though I love my Ipod and lossless flak etc. There is just something a great Cd does and great player along with that computer based music hasn't quite touched yet, but boy is it moving fast. Benchmark etc. are out there making my Mac the next music server candidate. So maybe it romantic of me to think 10 years, but I love my Vacuum tube cd player so I hope Cd's hang in there so I can enjoy this player.
I believe "profit" is the driving/sustaining force. Production costs are cheap & might? be reduced with technological improvements. Distribution via middlemen & retailers is/was expensive. Direct mail sales of CD's may reduce storage/movement/handling/commision cost. Is it possible prices can come down driving sales & profits higher encouraging CD's continued life and even improved quality? I hope so.
Regarding Naxos, they have just announced that they are offering their entire catalog in lossless WMA, without drm, on the MusicGiants download website. See the August 25 newsclip at audaud.com. The same clip says that Pentatone will be added soon as well.

Linn Audio, Chandos, shortly AIX, HMV UK, and several orchestras and bands have websites with either partial or complete catalog offerings in lossless formats. Keep in mind that it's early and that much of the download area is just now ramping up. High quality downloads need audiophile support in order to assure that the web offers more than just MP3.
There is a simple solution for anyone preferring cd's over pc based systems, regardless of how media evolve. Download in lossless format from the web and burn to cd-r. The only issue then is the lack of cover art or booklets but good download sites should in future be making those available online.
Nice thread. Maybe our discussion can't change the future, but neither can our discussions about weather or sports change those outcomes. It's all about connections, having fun and thinking. My take is that cds will be around until they can be downloaded accurately on super broadband (per Regalmal's observation). The Squeezebox is a great product which provides about 95%+ of cd quality and a ton more convenience -- just like cd's compared to vinyl. However, it's still best to start with the cd product. I'm looking forward to high def downloads!
I just bought a 40CD Box Vivaldi Compilation from DECCA for $62(paper sleeves only) and a 12CD Box set of Mahler Symphonies also from DECCA(with Richard Chailly conducting to a "very" high standard)for $29, both new from a shop. I will continue to buy values like these and expect the CD's themselves to last forever(I'm near 60)for me. I am encouraged to state I can probably be satisfied with CD indefinitely at low prices even though SACD,DVD-A and HDCD sound much better. Cost does influence the size of my library. I have a thousands of classical & jazz records and yet there are a tremendous number of discs and compilations on CD I would like to buy. I can listen to CD's and get deep into the music and that's my determining factor. Just like I can thoroughly enjoy an 'average' beer served at the right temperature in good company on a warm day; I'm sure it is worthwhile and eminently sensible to upgrade to a top class CD player as there is enough interesting satisfying music on CD to keep one listening indefinitely. Long live the CD (and HDCD Reference Recordings) at economical prices. I use a ref Spectral/MIT system so I'm probably in the top % of 'fussy' listeners. If CD can remain profitable it can survive a while yet. I'm presently enjoying Saturday afternoon at the Opera on FM radio, enough said.
Nevillekapedia, Your thoughts are sensible, practical and certainly probable. I'm afraid there will somehow be contamination just like todays DVD come with so much advertising, features,behing the scenes, etc I find unnecessary and unwanted. Mainstream media suffer from mainstream media promotion thinking sort of like Mc Donalds burgers probably use 'the' cheapest ingredients to 'make a buck'.
Psacanli,
You are right in the respect of not being able to avoid the marketing hype from the music companies that would come with such downloads- new artists, samplers of new songs scheduled for the next release, and the list goes on....
I can't see myself going into it too easily as I like to read the covers, the intro, and the artists impressionn... all on the nice glossy paper. Vinyl lovers enjoy this even more with 'readable' sized print. I guess we are turning into grumpy old guys who don't like too much change (probably can't keep up with it either)