As the amount of data increases, the projected mortality rate is dropping. Outside of Wuhan in the rest of China it’s at about .04% mortality rate. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china Why The Death Rate From Coronavirus Is Plunging In China March 3, 20206:18 PM ET Similarly, a study released by China’s Center for Disease Control last month found that if you factor out all the data from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, the fatality rate in the rest of China drops to 0.4%. Why such a big difference between Hubei and the rest of China? At a news conference the next day, Dr. Bruce Aylward — who had just concluded a fact-finding mission to China for the World Health Organization — pointed to three likely factors. First, said Aylward, is that Wuhan suffered from being the first place where the new coronavirus surfaced. "Wuhan started fast and, and early. People didn’t know what we were dealing with. We were learning how to treat this." The more patients medical staff saw, the more they could start identifying what kind of supportive care made a difference. So by the time patients started showing up in hospitals in other provinces, doctors and nurses there had a lot more information about what it takes to keep patients alive.
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geoffkait20,213 posts03-12-2020 1:55pmIn Italy the numbers are 15,113 and 1,000. Do the math.
The data-set in Italy will prove to be much different than America. The median age here in America is 38.3 year and in Italy it's 47.3. it's the oldest country age wise in Europe. Scientific Journal notes that most deaths in Italy are from people in their 80's and 90's. (By coincidence I was just driving back to my office and a Radio show stated the average age of death due to Coronavirus in Italy is 81)
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-deaths-from-coronavirus-are-so-high-in-italy/
One factor affecting the country’s death rate may be the age of its population—Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.
Given Italy’s older population, “you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal,” compared with a country with a younger population, Gordon told Live Science.
Scientific Journal also noted that the mortality rate in Wuhan where the Virus originated is much much higher than the rest of China:
A recent report from WHO found that the fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan, compared with 0.7% in the rest of the country, Live Science previously reported.
Scientific Journal also reprots that as preparedness and testing expands, Mortality rates drop.
Finally, the country may not be catching many of the mild cases of COVID-19. Often, as testing expands within a community, more mild cases are found, which lowers the overall death rate, Gordon said. This was the case in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider.
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geoffkait20,214 posts03-12-2020 3:57pm”Initially as noted earlier here, the initial numbers in China were showing the approximate same projected mortality rate as our early numbers. Now with a much larger pool of data it’s less than 1/2 of 1%.” It warms my heart to see that you’re actually reading some of this. Well done! You did miss the fact that the data sets were provided by different sources at different times, but maybe if you go back and re-read 4 or 5 more times more life changing facts will sink in. :) |
geoffkait20,215 posts03-12-2020 4:10pmYou flunked math, right? The only source that counts is the Johns Hopkins database, Einstein. China’s mortality rate is 4%. And it’s always been about 4%.
Please go back and re-ready Scientific Journal. Reading comprehension is your friend @geoffkait Trust me! :) ~PS~ ***Hint #1*** Mortality for Wuhan and Mortality for outside of Wuhan are different. ***Hint #2*** Mortality rate for all of China is different than for Wuhan and all other areas outside of Wuhan. |
tomic6014,412 posts03-12-2020 7:56pmand with friends, family and past co-workers in Italy... the overload of ICU is killing people with other malady as HC staff are forced to make brutal allocative decisions...
Are you purposely trying to misstate the reason for the high mortality rate in Italy???
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-deaths-from-coronavirus-are-so-high-in-italy/
One factor affecting the country’s death rate may be the age of its population—Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local. Given Italy’s older population, “you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal,” compared with a country with a younger population, Gordon told Live Science.
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"No panic" because we were "Right on top of it!" I love how people re-write history.... LoLz This was 6 months AFTER the Swine flu emerged in April 2009. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/64599-obama-declares-swine-flu-a-national-emergency President Barack Obama has declared the H1N1 flu pandemic a national emergency to prepare in case of a rapid increase in illness across the country.
Obama signed the proclamation late Friday giving medical facilities more leeway to handle the surge in patients with the H1N1 virus by waiving federal requirements on a case-by-case basis.
“Given that the rapid increase in illness across the Nation may overburden health care resources and that the temporary waiver of certain standard federal requirements may be warranted in order to enable U.S. health care facilities to implement emergency operations plans, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States constitutes a national emergency,” Obama wrote in the proclamation.
Millions of Americans have reportedly been infected with what is commonly referred to as the swine flu.
Thomas Frieden, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Friday that more than a thousand people have died as a result of the H1N1 flu virus.
Obama also informed Congress about his proclamation of a national emergency.
“I have authorized the Secretary of Health and Human Services to exercise the authority under section 1135 of the Social Security Act to temporarily waive or modify certain requirements of the Medicare, Medicaid, and State Children’s Health Insurance programs and of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act Privacy Rule as necessary to respond to the pandemic throughout the duration of the public health emergency declared in response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic,” Obama wrote to Congress.
Meanwhile, the vaccine against H1N1 has been in short supply. Flu clinics are swamped this weekend across the country with long lines of people trying to get the vaccine.
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Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy
- South Korea had 7,513 Covid-19 cases as of Monday, with daily infections falling for a fourth consecutive day
- Officials attribute the decrease to mass testing, improved public communication and the use of advanced technology
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without
Health workers wearing protective gear take samples from employees at a building in Seoul where 46 people were confirmed to have the Covid-19 coronavirus. Photo: AFPSouth Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran.As of end-Monday, it had 7,513 cases and 54 deaths. The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there was an increase of 131 cases from Sunday to Monday. The country averaged more than 500 new infections a day for the past two weeks, but last Friday, this number dipped to 438, then 367 on Saturday and 248 on Sunday. The daily number of confirmed cases is reported the following day.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Monday noted his country’s “slowing trend” of new infections but warned: “We should not be complacent at all.” His point was underscored by the KCDC, which said that among the new patients were more than 60 people who were infected while working in close proximity to each other at an insurance company call centre. “The total number of new confirmed cases is on a downturn but there are concerns over such mass infection cases”, said KCDC Deputy Director Kwon Jun-wook.
The steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed.
Conventional and coercive measures such as lockdowns of affected areas have drawbacks, he said, undermining the spirit of democracy and alienating the public who should participate actively in preventive efforts. “Public participation must be secured through openness and transparency,” he said. South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with information needed to stay safe, including twice daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy.
The importance of maintaining good hygiene has also been stressed. South Koreans seldom leave their homes without wearing a face mask, with many buildings putting up signs reading “No Masks, No Entry”. Restaurant workers and retail staff wear masks while serving customers. “I don’t like to wear a mask as I have to smell my own breath. I didn’t bother to wear as usual when I sneezed couple of times in the metro. Then other commuters frowned on me and stepped away from me. At that time, I decided to follow the trend and wear a mask,” said Min Gyeong-wook, a 35-year-old company employee. South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours.
Covid-19 tests are prohibitively expensive in many countries but in South Korea, all tests are free. The country is also capable of processing up to 15,000 diagnostic tests a day, and the aggregate number of tests has reached almost 200,000.This testing capability has enabled the country to identify patients early and minimise the harmful effects, health experts say. But this also led to South Korea having the second largest number of confirmed infections in the world after China, although this was superseded by Italy this week.South Korea has established “special immigration procedures” to monitor arrivals for two weeks without having to ban inbound travellers from entering the country.
Health workers wearing protective gear take samples from employees at a building in Seoul where 46 people were confirmed to have the Covid-19 coronavirus. Photo: AFP
Professor Kim Woo-joo at Korea University College of Medicine said the country had gained experience from dealing with previous health emergencies, such as the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, which resulted in about 750,000 cases and 180 deaths in South Korea, and the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) outbreak, which infected 186 people and resulted in at least 39 deaths in the country.“South Korea has learned valuable lessons from the outbreaks,” Kim said. “Public awareness of the need for individual hygiene such as washing hands and wearing masks has also been raised greatly, thanks to their experiences in the past outbreaks.” The country has subsequently trained health workers to cope with pandemic outbreaks, especially testing for infections, tracking and isolating contacts. “There are not many countries in the world like South Korea that have both brains and product facilities needed for coping with virus outbreaks,” said Hwang Seung-sik, a public health professor at Seoul National University.
South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran.As of end-Monday, it had 7,513 cases and 54 deaths. The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there was an increase of 131 cases from Sunday to Monday. The country averaged more than 500 new infections a day for the past two weeks, but last Friday, this number dipped to 438, then 367 on Saturday and 248 on Sunday. The daily number of confirmed cases is reported the following day. A long queue forms outside a store in Seoul to buy face masks that are in effect being rationed to cope with shortages amid the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak. Photo: Park Chan-kyongSouth Korean President Moon Jae-in on Monday noted his country’s “slowing trend” of new infections but warned: “We should not be complacent at all.”His point was underscored by the KCDC, which said that among the new patients were more than 60 people who were infected while working in close proximity to each other at an insurance company call centre. “The total number of new confirmed cases is on a downturn but there are concerns over such mass infection cases”, said KCDC Deputy Director Kwon Jun-wook. THIS WEEK IN ASIA NEWSLETTERGet updates direct to your inboxSUBSCRIBEBy registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy PolicyThe steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed.South Korean officials have shared their experiences in containing the outbreak, saying that citywide lockdowns, as imposed by China in Wuhan, where the outbreak originated, are difficult to enforce in an open society.China also introduced strict social distancing and extensive monitoring of citizens and ensured their adherence to preventive measures with punishment and rewards, resulting in a significant drop in the number of new cases. “Without harming the principle of a transparent and open society, we recommend a response system that blends voluntary public participation with creative applications of advanced technology,” South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told journalists. Coronavirus: South Korea’s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate5 Mar 2020Conventional and coercive measures such as lockdowns of affected areas have drawbacks, he said, undermining the spirit of democracy and alienating the public who should participate actively in preventive efforts. “Public participation must be secured through openness and transparency,” he said. South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with information needed to stay safe, including twice daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy. South Korea's 'drive-through' coronavirus testing stationsThe importance of maintaining good hygiene has also been stressed. South Koreans seldom leave their homes without wearing a face mask, with many buildings putting up signs reading “No Masks, No Entry”. Restaurant workers and retail staff wear masks while serving customers. “I don’t like to wear a mask as I have to smell my own breath. I didn’t bother to wear as usual when I sneezed couple of times in the metro. Then other commuters frowned on me and stepped away from me. At that time, I decided to follow the trend and wear a mask,” said Min Gyeong-wook, a 35-year-old company employee. South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours. Cars wait in line at a drive-through Covid-19 testing centre at Yeungnam University Medical Centre in Daegu, South Korea. Photo: EPA-EFECovid-19 tests are prohibitively expensive in many countries but in South Korea, all tests are free. The country is also capable of processing up to 15,000 diagnostic tests a day, and the aggregate number of tests has reached almost 200,000.This testing capability has enabled the country to identify patients early and minimise the harmful effects, health experts say. But this also led to South Korea having the second largest number of confirmed infections in the world after China, although this was superseded by Italy this week.South Korea has established “special immigration procedures” to monitor arrivals for two weeks without having to ban inbound travellers from entering the country. There are not many countries in the world like South Korea that have both brains and product facilities needed for coping with virus outbreaks.Hwang Seung-sik, Seoul National UniversityThose arriving from China, including Hong Kong and Macau but excluding Taiwan, have their body temperature checked, while their domestic contact information is verified and they are required to fill in a health questionnaire. They are also asked to download a self-diagnosis app on their mobile phones and put under intensive management if they show symptoms. South Korea is also using its cutting-edge IT technology and its ubiquitous surveillance cameras to track infection sources, identifying the movements of confirmed cases based on their credit card transactions and mobile phone tracking, and disclosing this information to help trace those who may have come into contact with them. Those who are at risk are placed in self-isolation and thoroughly managed on an individual basis by health authorities. To cope with hospital bed shortages, the country has turned many job training centres and other public facilities into “living and treatment centres” where patients showing light symptoms of the coronavirus are placed in quarantine.
Professor Kim Woo-joo at Korea University College of Medicine said the country had gained experience from dealing with previous health emergencies, such as the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, which resulted in about 750,000 cases and 180 deaths in South Korea, and the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) outbreak, which infected 186 people and resulted in at least 39 deaths in the country.“South Korea has learned valuable lessons from the outbreaks,” Kim said. “Public awareness of the need for individual hygiene such as washing hands and wearing masks has also been raised greatly, thanks to their experiences in the past outbreaks.” The country has subsequently trained health workers to cope with pandemic outbreaks, especially testing for infections, tracking and isolating contacts. “There are not many countries in the world like South Korea that have both brains and product facilities needed for coping with virus outbreaks,” said Hwang Seung-sik, a public health professor at Seoul National University.
Despite these facilities, Kim said it would be difficult for an open society such as South Korea or other OECD countries, to enforce lockdowns as seen in China. This was highlighted when Hong Ik-pyo was forced to resign as the chief spokesman of the ruling Democratic Party after he came under fire over his remarks that Daegu City, the epicentre of the recent outbreak, should be locked down. The remarks came at a politically sensitive time, with parliamentary elections to be held on April 15. Kim cautioned against premature optimism, noting that there have been small clusters of infections in some hospitals, apartments, churches and nursing homes in places other than Daegu, including Seoul and nearby Seongnam City.
Seoul’s Guro district on Monday said at least 46 people were infected at an insurance company call centre, where employees working in closed rooms are not allowed to wear masks so that they can speak clearly on the phone. Four more cases were family members of the employees, and 207 people who work on the same floor were being tested. “The best scenario is the virus dies away in late March … The worst scenario is the virus spreads widely in metropolitan Seoul and its surrounding Gyeonggi Province,” Kim said. Almost half of South Korea’s 51 million citizens live in this area.Kim Dong-hyun, president of the Korea Society of Epidemiology, said it is hard to prevent the Covid-19 illness from spreading among community members as viral sharing can occur during asymptomatic periods.“Countries should take drastic preventive measures, even at the initial stage of the virus outbreak,” he said.
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