Oh my feelings are just fine. My questions about your reasoning are quite valid since the Real Earnings Ratio is the worst it has been in 80 years hitting almost -4% and it almost always is a leading indicator of a recession and stock market decline at least near term. Your assumptions seemed based on a rapid return to lowish inflation? However many disagree with a near term (<1 year) chance of that happening say like Bank of England economists. As well due to the unusual conditions of the last two years there is a larger than normal differential between operating earnings and core earnings suggesting the Real Earnings Ratio is effectively worse. Then again I could read 50 analysts predictions for this year and all would be different the only consistency that a recession with inflation will be bad for valuations. Whose crystal ball is best?
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+1 @noske I just looked at speakers and many brands have increased or is increasing their prices with 20-40% ! Maybe the 2nd hand market will get some more items for sale which may push the prices a bit lower but they could just as easily start by going higher if new items are prices higher. |
The Fed has just recently (in the last weeks or so) reverted to no net increase in its "money printing" (quantitative easing, QE) campaign. QE is designed to flush the economy with liquidity, for financial institutions to spend on buying shares and real estate and to lend it out if they feel like it to audiophiles not wishing to miss out. Some countries ceased QE last year, eg, New Zealand in July, and are now going the reverse and reducing their bond holdings. |
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