The Hub: Is a Vinyl Revival in progress?


I'm cynical when it comes to news. I started out that way, and experience in J-school, newspapers and radio only made me more jaded. My view is that, like stock-tips, by the time a story hits the mainstream, it ain't news: it's a train already 'waaay down the tracks, interesting to watch and wave at, but nothing you can climb aboard.

So when a "trend" in vinyl revival is reported in such divergent media as the New York Times (as seen here) and the AARP magazine (as seen here) , is it like a grandmother just discovering her tweenage grand-daughter's interest in Twilight: too little, too late?

The distinction between a fad and a trend is an important one, and one frequently debated by marketers and sociologists. I think the difference was well put on the Marketing Innovation website:
"Both fads and trends last a finite period of time. However, when the fad is over, things are fundamentally the same. When a trend is over, things are fundamentally changed."

Here's the litmus test: when people give up wearing pink Crocs, is society different? No. After the big boom in sales of green tea flattens out, will societal habits be different? Probably so. So: Crocs are a fad, tea-drinking is part of a greater trend in consumption of nutriceuticals (don't get me started on THAT topic).

Futurist Faith Popcorn has made a career out of predicting societal trends, and written several best-selling books about where we're going next, in America. Through her assistant, I posed the question to Ms. Popcorn: is the vinyl revival a fad, or part of a larger trend? An answer has yet to appear, so I suspect we're on our own with this question.

Luckily, the person who has single-handedly done more to revive vinyl than any other individual, DOES answer my questions. Michael Fremer has written about vinyl and music for 30 years now, starting with The Absolute Sound and now as Senior Contributing Editor at Stereophile. Mikey also writes and edits his own music website Music Angle, and wouldja believe he writes a political blog for New Jersey's Bergen Record? (seen here).

Most audiophiles are introverted and terrified of addressing an audience, but Cornell grad and BU Law dropout Fremer also has stints as a stand-up comic and DJ on his resume. He's thoroughly comfortable schticking before a packed house, a microphone or a video camera; he's also good company at a bar. Unfortunately, this particular conversation was telephonic ( and took place Friday, December 18, 2009).

Audiogon Bill: "Michael, does all the mainstream press attention to the vinyl revival indicate that it's a fad, or a trend?"

Michael Fremer: "Oh, absolutely, it's a trend. It's been ongoing for several years now. Sales last year were double those of the year before, and THOSE sales had doubled from the year before THAT. And keep in mind that those are the sales that are COUNTED; this whole thing has been propelled by new indy rock releases, and most of those are under the radar."

AB: "But the LP is never going to be as big as it once was, is it?"

MF: "No, no, it's going to always be a niche market, but that's a good thing, because the people doing it will be the ones who are concerned with quality. I wouldn't want it to be mainstream again.

"Look, when it comes to computers, and we're not talking about iPods, iPhones, all those, but just COMPUTERS, Apple's a niche market. They've got what, 2% of the market against all the Windows nonsense done by everybody else? But it's an important niche, they lead the way."

AB: "So that's what you anticipate vinyl will be, the leading edge?"

MF: "Well, yeah. I mean, when it comes to reissues, you see pretty much the same content on vinyl as you do on SACD; the material is old, but it's being reissued to an audience that's really conscious of quality. But like I said, it's the new indy rock releases that make vinyl different, and THAT'S what's driving the whole revival. It's a young audience, vinyl is something new to them, and once they start playing LP's they're discovering a whole world of music that's available to them on vinyl that they'll never see or hear on CD."

After that, our conversation veered into the limitations on LP production capacity created by the shutdown years ago of most of the world's stamping-plants (new plants will be coming online soon, says Michael), and then degenerated into a discussion of why Michael is 10 years older than me, yet looks 10 years younger (answer: Pilates). But as you've read, Michael is convinced that today's vinyl revival is the real deal, and here to stay for a select segment of the music-buying audience.

There is evidence of backlash against computers and the virtual world amongst members of Generation Z (or whatever letter we're on now); as was the case in the late '60's, interest in crafts, handmade goods and mechanical devices is soaring. How much of it is frustration with bad programming (i.e., can't they just put a button or a knob on the thing, rather than a MENU??), I can't say. Clearly, though, downloaded files lack the tangible connection provided by the colorful artwork and liner notes of an LP jacket, or even the physical act of placing a record on the platter and cueing it up.

Psychologically, LPs provide another element lacking in the iPod experience: anticipation. Unlike a digital player which can hold thousands of songs, ready to go at the touch of the screen, a cut on vinyl has to be selected, pulled off the shelf, the disc removed from the jacket and the inner sleeve, cued up...you know the drill. It is a more leisurely process than than the digital one, and perhaps a more contemplative one as well. Listening to an entire album by an artist allows for greater immersion in the work, something rarely found in the cherry-picking download world.

And of course, I haven't even mentioned the SOUND of analog, or the immense back catalog of wonderful music that never made the transition to digital. Those are the driving factors for most of us who love LPs.

So: what are YOUR thoughts on the subject? Fad, or trend?
audiogon_bill
It seems clear that Fremer was not addressing the question you have posed here. The definitions of 'fad' and 'trend' you have adopted are nonstandard (and interesting!). Fremer, however, does not address the notion of how things will be fundamentally changed when it is over. Instead, he engages with the notion of 'trend' that implies a more longer-term, gradually increasing event. Vinyl fits that.

Further, he is clearly right that audiophiles are not the ones pushing the vinyl resurgence (of course). Thus trying to appeal to the burgeoning $50 audiophile LP productions as directing the resurgence is a mistake. It is a symptom. There is an underlying market interested in classic music of great quality. (Thus the interest in having both vinyl and digital versions of titles.) When things move on, there will still be this market, but that is not to say that the format will remain.

Perhaps vinyl will. I do not know.
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I agree with Mr. Fremer. It is and will stay a niche market.
For those who were into vinyl and have stayed with vinyl, they will continue to do so. For someone to make the investment into vinyl now is a VERY expensive proposition if they are not getting into it with a pre-existing collection of LPs. It is true that there are millions of pre-owned LPs out there, but a great many of them are in sketchy condition, and in many cases will result in a less-than-perfect initiation to music reproduced on a turntable, considering that many vinyl novices bought into the "perfect sound forever" mantra the music industry preached when CDs first came out. Look at all the consumer electronics marketed since the early 1980s touting the phrase "digital technology". For someone to shift from digital to analog, a high expectation of return on investment and satisfaction of experience is the motivation. Disappointment is inevitable, unless there is a commitment from the user to spend some time, learning and optimizing a vinyl playback system, keeping the LP collection clean and stored properly. That's a long way from dropping the shiny 4 3/4" disc into the tray and pushing "play".

The upside to the resurgent interest in vinyl is the number of high quality turntables, phono stages, and cartridges available at all price points, making the investment in hardware within the reach of many music lovers. It is also encouraging that there is so much of the great jazz, blues, and classical music catalogs from the golden age of vinyl being reissued.

For those who are taking the plunge because vinyl is "cool", are not likely to stay with it when the next "cool" thing comes along. Think "Sesame Street" style learning: "here's number 3 - well that's enough of the number 3, here's the letter O....
Trend!! Fads seem to be restricted to a specific generation or social group. The resurgence of vinyl is cross cultural and cross generational. My father is listening again. I'm listening and 16 year old kids are in the record store next to me buying Dylan records. It may be a reflection of the complex times we live in. A desire for simplicity and a chance to slow down. Or it may be a more intimate artistic experience that the listener/ music buyer receives through the ritual of discovery. Like going to a museum to see beautiful art rather than browsing a website full of JPEGS.

Thanks to all for your interesting comments. We're getting too many to address individually (thanks!), but I will throw out a few points.

Yes, the fad/trend definitions were not the typical ones, but I thought they really got to the heart of the matter. No, we didn't really nail down the more global issue of, "if it's part of a larger trend, what exactly IS that trend?" Sorry, but I have limited time and space. Mea culpa.

I, too, have seen cross-generational spread in all this activity, and that's encouraging. The question of whether or not it will LAST begs the question of just how long we're talking about.

Back when Alvin Toffler wrote "Future Shock", he talked about how change occurred too fast for us to adjust. These days,not only is that old news, but now change occurs so quickly that we almost can't recall that which came before.

That's a long-way-around way of saying, I'll be happy for the vinyl revival, whether it lasts 6 months or 20 years, but I would prefer the latter.